Some of us have been having a serious case of deja-vu for some time now.Those of us old enough to remember the GFC will be having a serious case of deja-vu right now.
Also it feels more like 1982 than the GFC.Some of us have been having a serious case of deja-vu for some time now.
Mick
74-75 wasn't much chop, eitherAlso it feels more like 1982 than the GFC.
The GFC was a short, sharp hit, this is a slow grind down to a lower level IMO.
Very true, wages went up, but inflation beat it.74-75 wasn't much chop, either
You talking about 1874 or 1974?74-75 wasn't much chop, either
If Trump wins as looks certain, inflation set to rising again due to tariffs.Just in case anyone's wondering what the ultimate inflation/currency collapse/defensive play is doing (gold), it just hit a new all time high
Those of us old enough to remember the GFC will be having a serious case of deja-vu right now.
Perhaps. Their policies have been both carrot and stick (both tariffs and subsidies at the same time). The carrot may counteract the stick from the inflation perspective.If Trump wins as looks certain, inflation set to rising again due to tariffs.
I understand the plan is to put 10% tariff on all foreign products and something like 60% on Chinese imports.
This will cause a major price spike and is effectively a new tax on consumers.
most likely the subsidies will be for new companies ( miners and manufacturers starting up )Perhaps. Their policies have been both carrot and stick (both tariffs and subsidies at the same time). The carrot may counteract the stick from the inflation perspective.
I'd need to see *exactly* what they're going to do before I could predict the consequences with any authority.
Before the failed assassination attempt, before the catastrophic (for Biden) first presidential debate, Donald Trump gave Bloomberg an extensive interview in which he laid out the core tenets of Trumponomics 2.0 that will define his next presidency. Here are the key highlights:
According to the interview, if Trump wins, he will...
While the broad strokes of Trumponomics might not be different from what they were during his first term, what’s new is the speed and efficiency with which he intends to enact them. He believes he understands the levers of power much more deeply now, including the importance of selecting the right people for the right jobs. “We had great people, but I had some people that I would not have chosen for a second time,” he says. “Now, I know everybody. Now, I am truly experienced.”
- enforce huge bilateral sanctions even though he claims “I don’t love sanctions,” he says. He keeps circling back to William McKinley, who he says raised enough revenue through tariffs during his turn-of-the-20th-century presidency to avoid instituting a federal income tax yet never got the appropriate credit.
- allow Jerome Powell to serve out his term as chair of the Federal Reserve, which runs through May 2026
- will lower the corporate tax rate to as low as 15%
- no longer plans to ban TikTok.
- considers Jamie Dimon to serve as secretary of the Department of the Treasury
- ambivalent (if not outright hostile) to the idea of protecting Taiwan from Chinese aggression and to US efforts to punish Putin for invading Ukraine.
I think that will be the reality for most Western countries, including the EU, China's manufacturing, has all first world countries over a barrel.The big losers will be the unfortunate country bumpkins who thought Trump would bring back their good ole boy way of life,
Sadly for them, its gone for good.
Mick
the best outcome i can see ( terror alert a contrarian bear letting the optimism run free ) is more full-time jobs for US residents/citizens ( more blue collar than white collar ) a little wiggle room for the surviving middle-class , and less chance of a massive ( civil or global ) warAccording to Zero Hedge , Trumpenomics 2.0 will be a new and improved version
Personally I can't see how anything he does will make things different to the last few.
Jamie Dimon in charge is a huge negative for me, just means the big banks will screw even more out of everyone else.
Sanctions will definitely be inflationary.
Banning Tik Tok or otherwise has no impact.
Jerome Powel will do whatever the big banks want.
Bringing corporate rate lower will probably just mean more buybacks, so great for the stockmarket.
Slowing the flow of money to the military inductrial complex is a good thing, money might(big might) go into something more productive,
The big losers will be the unfortunate country bumpkins who thought Trump would bring back their good ole boy way of life,
Sadly for them, its gone for good.
Mick
hum..I agree about insurance and the fact it makes more sense Airbnb a spare bedroom than rental ;Alan Kohler shows some interesting graphs. worth a look.
Further rate hikes will not fix inflation
Follow the latest news headlines from Australia's most trusted source. Read in-depth expert analysis and watch live coverage on ABC News.www.abc.net.au
I would have thought it was economics 101. If a house can make more money as an AirBNB then the investor will logically for economic reasons do this, which increases the long term rental cost curve until demand matches supply I.e. long term rental rates increase to make them competitive with short term rentals.suggestion rentals are competing with Airbnb ..yeah right
What is not told on the story line is that most of the unit, house or bedroom on airbnb would never have been put on a permanent market, especially now in qld with renters new "rights".I would have thought it was economics 101. If a house can make more money as an AirBNB then the investor will logically for economic reasons do this, which increases the long term rental cost curve until demand matches supply I.e. long term rental rates increase to make them competitive with short term rentals.
Long term rentals inflation has risen in Queensland more than anywhere else, especially in coastal areas.
We literally have saturation AirBNB advertising in Melbourne at present, stating if you go on a holiday (usually to Queensland) then why would you go to a resort and share a pool with kids when you can rent a house with a pool!
The housing crisis hit Queensland hard. Jolted into action, the state has raised its game
Governments’ policy inaction and complacency bear much of the blame for the lack of affordable housing. But a new report detects signs of hope in Queensland.theconversation.com
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