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Inflation

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"We have to be able to ensure our product is supplied, it's critical to the function of the entire global economy, particularly natural gas".


NRGU & BOIL soar every time there's any talk of strike action etc. The cutoff of the supply is actually pumping energy prices and thus giving the oil companies higher margin on the remaining oil/gas they are selling.

Ironically, because of how inelastic energy demand is, the strikes are effectively creating cartel-like supply restrictions and actually making the oil companies MORE money, not less.

This is (aside from the hilarious irony) what we call the "law of unintended consequences".


It was actually one of the best interviews I've seen in months. I'll see if I can find a youtube or similiar link they've uploaded it to.
 
And the fed pauses!

7 officials say pause until the end of the year, 12 say one more hike. Yields all bounce, 2 year hits highest level since 2006. Opec cuts/this recent rise in oil prices is starting to bite.

Let's see if australia follows suit.
 
over9k said:
And the fed pauses!

7 officials say pause until the end of the year, 12 say one more hike. Yields all bounce, 2 year hits highest level since 2006. Opec cuts/this recent rise in oil prices is starting to bite.

Let's see if australia follows suit.
Click to expand...

Fed has cut/paused in the past when inflation has continued upwards....
As much as people hate to acknowledge that the Fed is important, their actions are probably the most important barometer for what will happen to markets
 
waterbottle said:
Fed has cut/paused in the past when inflation has continued upwards....
Click to expand...
True but we're not seeing a commensurate pump in the unemployment rate at the moment so they're not (yet) having to decide between higher inflation or higher unemployment.

The U.S economy is proving very resilient to hikes. This is a good thing.
 
over9k said:
True but we're not seeing a commensurate pump in the unemployment rate at the moment so they're not (yet) having to decide between higher inflation or higher unemployment.

The U.S economy is proving very resilient to hikes. This is a good thing.
Click to expand...

Sure, it's resilient until it isn't. Just like unemployment was at its low in spite of rising rates in Dec 2007. Then came the GFC.

 
over9k said:
True but we're not seeing a commensurate pump in the unemployment rate at the moment so they're not (yet) having to decide between higher inflation or higher unemployment.

The U.S economy is proving very resilient to hikes. This is a good thing.
Click to expand...
That is true if you believe the figures coming out of the USA.
The employment stats are garbage, the employment stats have had multiple downward revisions, and the unemployment has had multiple upward revisions.
Whats a bet that the GDP figures will also suffer from some downward revisions similar to those recently where the second quarter GDP was revised down from 2.4% to 2.1%. ( see Reuters )
Mick
 
over9k said:
It wasn't rising rates that caused the GFC though. Totally different scenario.
Click to expand...
is it ??

i suggest the scenario is the same ( the banks are on the verge of bankruptcy/collapse , again ) only the scapegoat is new

the rising rates aren't so bad IF your debt obligations are low , and thus over-extended banks are still the issue
 
how good is it to see every other post. i presume its my bestie, over90kg, who has me on block, dropping his pearls.

really kills context. what a fing joke.
 
qldfrog said:
No no it is the Marvel of ALP management:
who is our best treasurer even now? I do not even know his her name...
Click to expand...
sadly , i do, he is the local member for the residence i left in April

however maybe they should rename the seat to Rancid due to the high property crime rate





























































r
 
In a further sign that the supply side issues that were said to be the driver of inflation are reducing, FreightWaves has reported that sliding container freight rates are getting close to loss making values.
Rates “continue to lose ground, bending under the pressure of insufficient demand and growing overcapacity,” said Alphaliner this week.

According to Linerlytica, “Container market sentiment continues to deteriorate, with freight rates still slipping and little prospect for a rate rebound in October despite carriers’ efforts to contain capacity availability through blanked [canceled] sailings.”

This is particularly bad news for ocean carrier Zim (NYSE: ZIM), which has unusually high spot exposure in the trans-Pacific this year — 70% versus the typical 50%.

The Freightos Baltic Daily Index (FBX) spot assessment for the Asia-North America West Coast lane has fallen 16% over the past month, to $1,712 per forty-foot equivalent unit as of Thursday. The FBX Asia-North America East Coast assessment is down 13% over the past month, to $2,662 per FEU.




Mick
 
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