Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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Adairs, one of our reasonaly sized reytailers, has just releases a sales update that underlines what everyone has been saying anectdotally. Retails sales declining.
Sales for the year are up, but the growth was all in the first half, but down 7% in second half.
And thats without including inflation, which is accounted for would make annual sales down in real terms, and even further down in the second half.
They have also reduced nominal guidance forecasts for net year by 10%.
How many more rate increases will there be before the RBA starts to cut?
I am betting one more rate hike in July before they realise their data points are a bit out of date.
Mick
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mullokintyre said:
How many more rate increases will there be before the RBA starts to cut?
I am betting one more rate hike in July before they realise their data points are a bit out of date.
Mick
Click to expand...
Until the input costs stop going up, inflation keeps going up, today a 5% increase in the basic wage has to increase the wages cost for the company.
If they can't afford to absorb it, which when sales are decreasing becomes harder to do, they have to pass it on to the consumer or go broke.
Guessing when the input costs, eg wages, power, rates etc, is crystal ball gazing, I'm not seeing an end until serious business failures start happening and jobs start going south.
 
sptrawler said:

Strap yourselves in.:xyxthumbs​


SMH report

A 5.75 per cent lift was most the FWC could justify, commissioner says​

ByRachel Clun​

Fair Work Commission president Adam Hatcher said the 5.75 per cent increase to the minimum wage and the Modern Award was the most that could be justified by the economic circumstances.
He also acknowledged that those workers wages would still go backwards in real terms.
The Fair Work Commission looked at the tough economic circumstances - including low unemployment, falling real wages, high inflation and a looming economic slowdown - when considering the wage rise.
“Inflation is reducing the real value of these employees incomes and causing households financial stress,” Hatcher said.
Click to expand...

What is the justification though?
 

Australia Post hikes parcel costs by 10pc as losses grow​

The government-owned business says inflation and rising costs has left it with no choice but to lift prices for handling business mail and parcels from July as it faces a gloomy financial outlook
 
I'm not the only one who thinks it has a 1970's feel about it.

Robert Gottliebson in today's Australian:

The dangerous forces that are cornering Philip Lowe​

The Reserve Bank governor is facing a national dilemma that I have not seen since the Whitlam years. But there are paths out, albeit difficult ones.

 
Increases in the cost of fuel, electricity price increases of between 20 to 30 percent, payroll increases of 5 to 10% , payroll tax and land tax in Vic going up, and yet still treasury officials a saying inflation will be less than 4% for next year.
As they said in the Castle, "Tell him he's dreamin".
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
I'm struggling to comprehend why anyone would buy either of the two.
Bet there is less than 1 tomato per bottle.
Food flavouring, salt, sugar , water, corn syrup, preservatives etc make up the majority.
Mick
Click to expand...

Thats actually not true at all, Heinz Ketchup is 77% concentrated tomatoes (tomato paste), then they add a bit of water and vinegar to bring it to the write consistency, and then add sugar and salt for taste.

Here is a video of them making it, as a Heinz shareholder (Via Berkshire Hathaway) I did a deep dive into a bunch of their products, and was surprised as exactly how much tomato is actually in ketchup.

In answer to @Smurf1976 always get the Heinz ketchup, its thicker and has vinegar in it so the flavour profile is way better than the watery keep stuff.

 
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mullokintyre said:
Increases in the cost of fuel, electricity price increases of between 20 to 30 percent, payroll increases of 5 to 10% , payroll tax and land tax in Vic going up, and yet still treasury officials a saying inflation will be less than 4% for next year.
As they said in the Castle, "Tell him he's dreamin".
Mick
Click to expand...
All you need to think about is which will effect house prices more and go from there.
 
Value Collector said:
Thats actually not true at all, Heinz Ketchup is 77% concentrated tomatoes (tomato paste), then they add a bit of water and vinegar to bring it to the write consistency, and then add sugar and salt for taste.

Here is a video of them making it, as a Heinz shareholder (Via Berkshire Hathaway) I did a deep dive into a bunch of their products, and was surprised as exactly how much tomato is actually in ketchup.

In answer to @Smurf1976 always get the Heinz ketchup, its thicker and has vinegar in it so the flavour profile is way better than the watery keep stuff.

Click to expand...

And what exactly do you think went into making the paste concentrate?
Having worked for a company (not heinz) that made tomato paste concentrate, I can assure you that the tomato input was the lowest grade poor quality leftovers from whole tomatoe, diced tomatoe etc that went into paste, included a variety of thickening agents, from corn syrup to concentrated pear paste.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
And what exactly do you think went into making the paste concentrate?
Having worked for a company (not heinz) that made tomato paste concentrate, I can assure you that the tomato input was the lowest grade poor quality leftovers from whole tomatoe, diced tomatoe etc that went into paste, included a variety of thickening agents, from corn syrup to concentrated pear paste.
Mick
Click to expand...
mullokintyre said:
And what exactly do you think went into making the paste concentrate?
Having worked for a company (not heinz) that made tomato paste concentrate, I can assure you that the tomato input was the lowest grade poor quality leftovers from whole tomatoe, diced tomatoe etc that went into paste, included a variety of thickening agents, from corn syrup to concentrated pear paste.
Mick
Click to expand...
Tomato paste is pretty much just cooked down tomatoes, Heinz state on their packaging that each 100ml of tomato concentrate contains 162grams of tomato’s. So it’s just tomato with some of the water cooked out of it.

Doing some basic math, a 1 litre bottle of Heinz’s ketchup contains about 13.25 average tomato’s, not just 1.

IMG_8376.jpeg
 
sptrawler said:
As the RBA said, continual wage rises without an increase in output will drive inflation, everyone is just being nice.
Until it gets out of control.lol
Click to expand...

No, i meant what was the justification for a 5% raise instead of 7%? May as well have given a 7% lift and be done with it, or nothing at all.

If anything, this is largely reflective of most Australian policy. Unlike our American (or even NZ) counterparts who have been consistent with their messaging and stuck to their plan to hike regardless of incoming data or market noise, the Australian plan is hamstrung by the trying to appease both sides of the coin.
It's almost like we're in some weird goldilocks zone where we've managed to tap the breaks lightly enough that response has been to compensate by increasing prices and feeding into inflation, as opposed to the desired effect of slowing things down. It explains why we have retailers continuing to increase prices in the face of falling volumes, workers getting pay rises in the face of slowing business and house prices climbing despite rising interest rates (we didn't just lose supply in the past 12 months).

The decision by the FairWork Commission is classic Australian fence-sitting 'decision-muddying'
 
waterbottle said:
No, i meant what was the justification for a 5% raise instead of 7%? May as well have given a 7% lift and be done with it, or nothing at all.

If anything, this is largely reflective of most Australian policy. Unlike our American (or even NZ) counterparts who have been consistent with their messaging and stuck to their plan to hike regardless of incoming data or market noise, the Australian plan is hamstrung by the trying to appease both sides of the coin.
It's almost like we're in some weird goldilocks zone where we've managed to tap the breaks lightly enough that response has been to compensate by increasing prices and feeding into inflation, as opposed to the desired effect of slowing things down. It explains why we have retailers continuing to increase prices in the face of falling volumes, workers getting pay rises in the face of slowing business and house prices climbing despite rising interest rates (we didn't just lose supply in the past 12 months).

The decision by the FairWork Commission is classic Australian fence-sitting 'decision-muddying'
Click to expand...
That's what I meant by everyone is trying to be nice, "give them more money poor things", not knowing that eventually the pain will be twice as bad.
There is no justification for the rise, other than people want more money, without increasing the workforce output, it just is another inflationary cost.
No one wants to be targeted by the media, not even the fair work commission, so no one wants to make the hard calls, look what happened to Lowe they were baying for his blood.
The reality is, it will just take longer to get inflation under control and the overshoot on interest rates to the upside will be higher and the financial pain more severe. :2twocents
 
frugal.rock said:
The laws of physics render this statement false. You shall be hearing from Lawyer Heinz.

www.heinzlaw.com.au
Click to expand...
I think you need to go back to physics class, you are missing the fact that 162 grams of Fresh Tomatoes, can fit inside 100ml once it’s been cooked down and lost a bunch of its water weight.

Hell if you cook them down long enough to turn them into powder, you could probably fit 1kg of tomatoes in 100ml volume.

Also remember, grams is weight mls is volume, 100 grams = 100 mls when it comes to water, but a lot of things weigh more than water.
 
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For me tomatoes are off the me and you Give me chronic gout, as much as I really like a good tomato.
 
farmerge said:
For me tomatoes are off the me and you Give me chronic gout, as much as I really like a good tomato.
Click to expand...
So by not purchasing them, you are helping fighting the ro me a tomato inflation index ....
Let's go back to the subject, inflation is actually really bad for nearly all of us
I somewhat doubt many of us here on ASF saw their overall wealth, after tax be higher by roughly 10% than in June 2022...if so, you are poorer.
I am....
 

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