Inflation

[Knobby22]

hi Knobby, I'm trying to track down where this 0.3% figure comes from. I know Kohler quoted it on the news, but I can't see it in the ABS data.

I also saw it in the Age. The month that dropped off was due to the reduction in oil price when the tariff was temporarily reduced. this artificially lowered inflation in that month that when removed resulted in a surge to the yearly figure quoted.

Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said: “It’s important to note that a significant contributor to the increase in the annual movement in April was automotive fuel. The halving of the fuel excise tax in April 2022, which was fully unwound in October 2022, is impacting the annual movement for April 2023.”

CPI inflation is often impacted by items with volatile price change such as automotive fuel, fruit and vegetables and holiday travel. "It can be helpful to exclude items with volatile price changes from the headline CPI to provide a view of underlying inflation,” Ms Marquardt said. “When excluding these volatile items, the annual movement of the monthly CPI indicator was 6.5 per cent in April, lower than 6.9 per cent recorded in March."

Someone did work it out, I have seen the monthly figure previously but also not sure if ABS publish it.

 

[over9k]

6.5 year on year is still 3x desired.

 

[moXJO]

Anyone else get the feel that this bear is on its last legs?

 

[over9k]

Anyone else get the feel that this bear is on its last legs?

Which one?

I'm currently running ultra-safe and degen plays, nothing in between.

 

[over9k]

We are already adjusting to the India story imo. Growing middle class will hopefully split the load of trade between India and China.

While both sides are still trying to work out how to benefit from the trade and its still very early days. It's going to be a lot easier on the communication end dealing with India.
Maybe not so much on the red tape and political spectrum though.

Still it's a bigger opportunity for us.

India's far more self reliant/mineral wealthy in basically everything though. Precious metals, coal, iron ore, food, energy (and a lot closer to the arab world to boot).

Pivoting over to india is the obvious move but it's not an equivalent substitute.

 

[Smurf1976]

Anyone else get the feel that this bear is on its last legs?

My personal thought is we’re about to see the fireworks.

If so then we’re most of the way through by duration but not by depth.

 

[moXJO]

India's far more self reliant/mineral wealthy in basically everything though. Precious metals, coal, iron ore, food, energy (and a lot closer to the arab world to boot).

Pivoting over to india is the obvious move but it's not an equivalent substitute.

No it would be a split.

Realistically China needs to start playing nice again. I think I saw a figure that 20% of young men were unemployed.
Not sure if it's correct, but that's a massive potential problem for the government. Unless China starts tonguing US rears, they are up to sht very quickly.

I think the language that came out of the Elon talks were interesting.

 

[waterbottle]

Anyone else get the feel that this bear is on its last legs?

Yeah, but maybe it's just FOMO?



Recessions don't start until the Fed has paused and begins to cut. That has been the case for the past 7 out of 9 recessions since 1960.

NASDAQ seems to double top before recessions too but I need to take a closer look.

I'm just buying some small parcels of speccy miners in the meantime, hoping to make a 1000x play when I hit 80 and we're up to QE infinity

 

[waterbottle]

EU inflation slowing rapidly... Now 6.1%, down from 10.2% only 8 months ago...

 

[farmerge]

EU inflation slowing rapidly... Now 6.1%, down from 10.2% only 8 months ago...

Are the inhabitants now spending less, because they have less to spend?.

 

[over9k]

Markets (growth plays) are pumping in response anyway. This whole "rates will go down because of recession so growth plays thus pump" thing is absolutely ridiculous but it is what it is.

 

[over9k]

 

[waterbottle]

Dollar General stock plunges as 'challenging' economic backdrop drives dismal earnings report

Dollar General said a worse than expected macroeconomic backdrop is impacting its customers spending, leading the discounter to slash its full year outlook.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Smurf1976]

View attachment 157616

I'm struggling to comprehend why anyone would by the expensive one unless there's something wrong with the cheap one?

 

[sptrawler]

I think the language that came out of the Elon talks were interesting.

What was the jist of what Elon said moxjo?

 

[sptrawler]

Dollar General stock plunges as 'challenging' economic backdrop drives dismal earnings report

Dollar General said a worse than expected macroeconomic backdrop is impacting its customers spending, leading the discounter to slash its full year outlook.

www.cnbc.com

I'm noticing Aldi is way busier than Woolies and Coles, over here in W.A.
Aldi are fairly new here, so maybe it isn't the same on the East Coast where they are more established, but here they appear about 30% cheaper and it is showing by the amount of patronage.
The oldest son drives about 120km road trip once a fortnight to do the grocery shopping at Aldi, when there are Woolies and Coles stores available only 20 km away in Collie, he says it saves about $200 on the shop.
So interesting times in supermarket land over here in the West.
On a side note, the latest Aldi that has opened near me has a self serve aisle, all the others don't, are they normal over east?

 

[mullokintyre]

I'm struggling to comprehend why anyone would by the expensive one unless there's something wrong with the cheap one?

I'm struggling to comprehend why anyone would buy either of the two.
Bet there is less than 1 tomato per bottle.
Food flavouring, salt, sugar , water, corn syrup, preservatives etc make up the majority.
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

I'm struggling to comprehend why anyone would buy either of the two.
Bet there is less than 1 tomato per bottle.
Food flavouring, salt, sugar , water, corn syrup, preservatives etc make up the majority.
Mick

You nailed it right there. ?

 

[over9k]

I'm struggling to comprehend why anyone would by the expensive one unless there's something wrong with the cheap one?

Taste

 

[sptrawler]

Strap yourselves in.​

SMH report

A 5.75 per cent lift was most the FWC could justify, commissioner says​

ByRachel Clun​

Fair Work Commission president Adam Hatcher said the 5.75 per cent increase to the minimum wage and the Modern Award was the most that could be justified by the economic circumstances.
He also acknowledged that those workers wages would still go backwards in real terms.
The Fair Work Commission looked at the tough economic circumstances - including low unemployment, falling real wages, high inflation and a looming economic slowdown - when considering the wage rise.
“Inflation is reducing the real value of these employees incomes and causing households financial stress,” Hatcher said.