Inflation

[farmerge]

There's no vision in politics anymore, just short term cynical populism. I think I've mentioned before about governments thinking one election cycle at a time with a focus on doing only what is necessary to get them re-elected... and that's where it ends.

Morrison blew $5.5 billion on a submarine deal that fell through. Imagine the infrastructure that could have been maintained or built with that money. A big part of the problem is that people are so focused on partisan politics that we don't hold governments to account. We make excuses for our own political tribe and bash the other mob. Politicians are very aware of this and encourage the rabid tribalism. if you can make human nature work for you, all the better.

I fear this thread is veering off topic now. Perhaps any off topic posts can be moved elsewhere later?

For as long as I can remember, politicians only have one mantra. Number 1 first and foremost, and if anything happens to benefit the peasants/masses, then we won't let that happen again!!!

 

[waterbottle]

US retail misses
NY manufacturing index misses
Phillip manufacturing misses

This data looks ****

 

[Jeda]

US retail misses
NY manufacturing index misses
Phillip manufacturing misses

This data looks ****

depends on your perspective, inflation is now tamed

 

[waterbottle]

depends on your perspective, inflation is now tamed

It isn't though. CPI is still above target has core CPI has been going sideways for a few months.

 

[Jeda]

It isn't though. CPI is still above target has core CPI has been going sideways for a few months.

Rome didn't burn in a day ? go for a walk and compare consumer spending today ?

 

[divs4ever]

Rome didn't burn in a day ? go for a walk and compare consumer spending today ?

is that 'inflation-adjusted ' spending ( either 'official CPI ' or real inflation )??

went 'for a walk' on Saturday ( at the local mall ) and nearly needed a trip to the hospital from 'price shock ' and that was a COL when i normally shop at an IGA ( MTS franchise )

but as a COL holder ( courtesy of the WES spin-off ) i will be watching for a better div. )

 

[UMike]

In SE suburbs Vic.... I really can't see much of Difference.

Seems places are full and people are spending.

 

[waterbottle]

Rome didn't burn in a day ? go for a walk and compare consumer spending today ?

Sorry, not sure what you mean.

On a different note, are there any real estate aficionados that could comment on the commercial real estate space? Seems like there's a lot of discounting happening as workers aren't coming back to the office. Has there ever been discounting like this before?

Distressed Sales Rise in Beleaguered Office Market https://www.wsj.com/articles/rise-i...hapter-for-beleaguered-office-market-bbff313c

 

[sptrawler]

Sorry, not sure what you mean.

On a different note, are there any real estate aficionados that could comment on the commercial real estate space? Seems like there's a lot of discounting happening as workers aren't coming back to the office. Has there ever been discounting like this before?

Distressed Sales Rise in Beleaguered Office Market https://www.wsj.com/articles/rise-i...hapter-for-beleaguered-office-market-bbff313c

I personally have never bought into the commercial space, a couple of mates did and they didn't do as well as residential, but I'm talking W.A specifically.
One had an office in Vic Park, the other had a couple of factory units in Willeton, I see shops and factory units sit empty for long periods.
IMO and it is just from a personal perspective, I've always thought it would make sense to buy if you actually work from the commercial property and there are opportunities to use it as a superannuation vehicle.
All just my opinion.

 

[mullokintyre]

I personally have never bought into the commercial space, a couple of mates did and they didn't do as well as residential, but I'm talking W.A specifically.
One had an office in Vic Park, the other had a couple of factory units in Willeton, I see shops and factory units sit empty for long periods.
IMO and it is just from a personal perspective, I've always thought it would make sense to buy if you actually work from the commercial property and there are opportunities to use it as a superannuation vehicle.
All just my opinion.

I have had more luck with Industrial property,
Apart from a period when one tennant did not pay rent, its been continualy rented, and there is a shortage of Sheds in our area thanks to the short sightedness of local councils, so the value of it has gone up as well.
just sitting in the super fund doing nicely.
Mick

 

[Jeda]

Sorry, not sure what you mean.

On a different note, are there any real estate aficionados that could comment on the commercial real estate space? Seems like there's a lot of discounting happening as workers aren't coming back to the office. Has there ever been discounting like this before?

Distressed Sales Rise in Beleaguered Office Market https://www.wsj.com/articles/rise-i...hapter-for-beleaguered-office-market-bbff313c

discounting you say how will that affect inflation

 

[moXJO]

I have had more luck with Industrial property,
Apart from a period when one tennant did not pay rent, its been continualy rented, and there is a shortage of Sheds in our area thanks to the short sightedness of local councils, so the value of it has gone up as well.
just sitting in the super fund doing nicely.
Mick

Big shortage of warehousing. It's very hot atm

 

[mullokintyre]

From Evil Murdoch press

Wages growth has accelerated from 3.3 per cent to a decade-high of 3.7 per cent in the year to March, new figures have revealed.
The 0.8 per cent quarterly increase in the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ wage price index, however, came in below economists’ consensus forecast of 0.9 per cent, suggesting pay pressures at the start of the year have not added to the case for a rate rise as soon as next month.

With inflation running at 7 per cent, the fastest annual wage rises in a decade still fall far short of increasing cost of living, suggesting real pay cuts for most jobs.

The latest pay figures come as the Fair Work Commission commences hearings into its upcoming minimum wage decision. Unions are calling for an increase of 7 per cent, while employer groups have advocated for increases of 3.5-4 per cent. The Albanese government has again thrown its weight behind a minimum wage rise that allows workers’ pay to keep pace with inflation.

After Labor successfully advocated for a 15 per cent increase in the minimum wage for aged care workers, Jim Chalmers on Wednesday morning said “we want people to be able to earn a decent wage and provide for their loved ones”.

“That’s why we support a decent minimum wage rise,” the Treasurer said.

This is why I think the RBA will continue with Interest Rate rises for the forseeable future.
The 15% rise for aged care workers is going to add a huge chunk to the costs of aged care.
There will be a lift in the minimum wage decision of somewhere between what the employer groups want of 3.5 to 4 % and the unions want of 7%. These increases always have a flow on effect as the unions seek wage increases in other areas to maintain the wage disparity.
Of course a wages increase of 6% turns out to be at least 8% cost to the employer when adding all the oncosts such as super, holiday leave loading, overtime, sick pay, long service leave, etc etc.
Industries that are highly labour intensive will have the biggest cost increases, so will likely face the biggest price output increases.
And the people at the bottom tend to spend every cent and then some on goods and services.
That is not to say that for the folks at the bottom of the heap, these are very well deserved increases, but it still has to be recognised that theses increases in wages come with some big costs, inflation being but one.
Mick

 

[waterbottle]

discounting you say how will that affect inflation

Probably not by much given its now driven by services I.e wages

 

[waterbottle]

From Evil Murdoch press

This is why I think the RBA will continue with Interest Rate rises for the forseeable future.
The 15% rise for aged care workers is going to add a huge chunk to the costs of aged care.
There will be a lift in the minimum wage decision of somewhere between what the employer groups want of 3.5 to 4 % and the unions want of 7%. These increases always have a flow on effect as the unions seek wage increases in other areas to maintain the wage disparity.
Of course a wages increase of 6% turns out to be at least 8% cost to the employer when adding all the oncosts such as super, holiday leave loading, overtime, sick pay, long service leave, etc etc.
Industries that are highly labour intensive will have the biggest cost increases, so will likely face the biggest price output increases.
And the people at the bottom tend to spend every cent and then some on goods and services.
That is not to say that for the folks at the bottom of the heap, these are very well deserved increases, but it still has to be recognised that theses increases in wages come with some big costs, inflation being but one.
Mick

Can we blame the boomers for this?

If demand is causing Australia's inflation crisis, new data shows which age groups are behind it

Younger Australians are being forced to change their behaviour to deal with the rising cost of living, a report based on the financial data of 7 million people shows.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Jeda]

Probably not by much given its now driven by services I.e wages

what about the loss of income and distribution of that income to owners and shareholders, will they still spend as much as the year before with less profits in the pockets ?

 

[mullokintyre]

Can we blame the boomers for this?

If demand is causing Australia's inflation crisis, new data shows which age groups are behind it

Younger Australians are being forced to change their behaviour to deal with the rising cost of living, a report based on the financial data of 7 million people shows.

www.abc.net.au

perhaps the writer of that article is to young to understand the economic thinking of the older generation.
There would be a reasonable percentage of these people fwho are not affected by mortgage rate rises, as they own their home.
For most of them, they look to income streams rather than capital gains to provide their living expenses.
They are conservative, into capital protection, rather than riskier growth.
Banks love the older buggers, they are willing to take really poor deposit rates while the bank margin can be three or more percent.
It used to drive me nuts that my elderly parents were very careful not to eat into their capital, but tried to live off the income from it to supplement their aged pension.
They could have led a much easier life if they had liquidated some assets and spent up big having a good time, rather than leaving it for their ungrateful offspring.
During the lowest interest rate periods, you were were lucky to get 1% on your bank deposits.
Now with the interest rate increases, you can get 4%
As interest rates rose, their incomes, as distinct from their wealth, has gone up by 400%.
So they have more money to spend, so they do.
Just the opposite to the under 35's who are paying mortgages.
The article does not say how much of the total spend the baby boomers contribute.
An 18% rise on a base that is quite small has less effect than an 8% rise on a much larger spend.
Conventional economic wisdom has it that it is the younger people with kids, mortgages etc who drive the consumer part of GDP, not the baby boomers.
Mick

 

[waterbottle]

what about the loss of income and distribution of that income to owners and shareholders, will they still spend as much as the year before with less profits in the pockets ?

Well based off of today's numbers, wages growth is still high and continuing an upwards trend - so yes.

 

[Jeda]

Well based off of today's numbers, wages growth is still high and continuing an upwards trend - so yes.

View attachment 157024

that's part of the story, now lets get back to the original post showing confidence down followed by discounted office space and how you think that has no affects on inflation

 

[waterbottle]

that's part of the story, now lets get back to the original post showing confidence down followed by discounted office space and how you think that has no affects on inflation

I'm too daft to make the connection. Please help.