Inflation

[frugal.rock]

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And the actu wants 7% wage rise.

front page of AFR (Sally McManus photo excised). Game on.

 

[moXJO]

And the actu wants 7% wage rise.

front page of AFR (Sally McManus photo excised). Game on.

View attachment 155148

Yep here it comes.

 

[over9k]

Core PCE up 0.3 vs 0.4 estimated, nice bounce in response, personal spending up 0.2 vs 0.3 estimated.

Fixed income pricing one more hike, then a pause, then two 25 point drops.

 

[divs4ever]

Yep here it comes.

all fairly standard stuff ( i was a teen/young adult in the '70s ) but history will always blame the workers for trying to catch up to real inflation ( they couldn't trick us with CPI back then , i doubt if it will work work either )

the problems with using CPI are

A. it is a lagging measurement ( so by the time the wage rises ACTUALLY hit the hip pocket , nearly 12 months have passed since the demands were made )

B. it is subject to selected price samples ( still , just different selections , now )

tax receipts go down , because workers have less discretionary to spend or save , ergo taxes have to rise as well as bracket creep ,higher taxes translate into higher costs ETC ETC ETC

 

[farmerge]

all fairly standard stuff ( i was a teen/young adult in the '70s ) but history will always blame the workers for trying to catch up to real inflation ( they couldn't trick us with CPI back then , i doubt if it will work work either )

the problems with using CPI are

A. it is a lagging measurement ( so by the time the wage rises ACTUALLY hit the hip pocket , nearly 12 months have passed since the demands were made )

B. it is subject to selected price samples ( still , just different selections , now )

tax receipts go down , because workers have less discretionary to spend or save , ergo taxes have to rise as well as bracket creep ,higher taxes translate into higher costs ETC ETC ETC

As a self employed poor person, I have to be watchful that I don't over price myself to the opposition.
The supermarket shopping trolley with its mostly junk in it is not part of our configeration in how we justify pricing.
Fuel is our big thing, can be minimal litres one week and hundreds another. It's a hard balancing act at times.

 

[farmerge]

Just checked in to see what the DOW is doing at opening. Up 1/2 percent at this early stage of proceedings. Would be nice to find in the morning that this figure has multiplied somewhat.
Now heading off in an uncontrolled stagger to the Slumber King.

 

[divs4ever]

i hear gossip there is a groundswell of 'all is fixed/ the Fed will pause or cut soon , yada , yada

i will keep a plan ready for everything i can think of (possible or impossible )

have a good one

 

[moXJO]

i hear gossip there is a groundswell of 'all is fixed/ the Fed will pause or cut soon , yada , yada

i will keep a plan ready for everything i can think of (possible or impossible )

have a good one

Yeah I'm hearing this as well.
Figures have all taken a hit.

 

[divs4ever]

Yeah I'm hearing this as well.
Figures have all taken a hit.

i am looking to slash the portfolio , i have found an attractive opportunity outside the financial markets , so another rise or two in the coming month ( April ) will mean more shares retained and still get the prize

personally i reckon the global economy is a train-wreck sliding towards a cliff , but if the market is rising while i am selling down , i won't complain much ( if BHP completes the OZL take-over in April that would be a nice help.. since the board isn't resisting much )

interesting times indeed

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Now what?

View attachment 153827

If this is still an uptrend then this would be the place we start going back up.

?

aside from bank failures, I think this kind of turned out? Except, surprisingly in growth stocks with QQQ up 9.5% ...other stuff not so much but you'd probably expect risk to be down more in the face of recent turmoil...still an uptrend?

 

[over9k]

OPEC cuts by a million a day, markets react exactly as you'd expect.

 

[over9k]

 

[over9k]

JPowell: We don't see rate cuts for 2023

Might even manage another rise if OPEC keep turning the screws.

 

[over9k]

As a self employed poor person, I have to be watchful that I don't over price myself to the opposition.
The supermarket shopping trolley with its mostly junk in it is not part of our configeration in how we justify pricing.
Fuel is our big thing, can be minimal litres one week and hundreds another. It's a hard balancing act at times.

I've donated over $50,000 to Charity this year.


I should point out that her parents called her April - Charity is her stage name.

 

[over9k]

And it's... a... slaughter!

Degen NRGU buy at 318.

50% in a fortnight. Done.

 

[over9k]

I've been saying it's structural for a loooong time.

(and even if it isn't, OPEC will make it so).

 

[over9k]

"We already had a small recession priced into our modelling and we'd predicted $100/barrel oil even then so with these cuts we see 100 as a virtual certainty".

Goldman's revised their estimates to $95 too. Toot toot.

 

[farmerge]

I've donated over $50,000 to Charity this year.


I should point out that her parents called her April - Charity is her stage name.

Mt Over9k Any spare and the Farmer's collection box will gladly accept. A tax Invoice will of course be forwarded on receipt of the "donation".

 

[over9k]

Mt Over9k Any spare and the Farmer's collection box will gladly accept. A tax Invoice will of course be forwarded on receipt of the "donation".

What's your wife's stage name and I'll be sure to ask for her next time