Inflation

[waterbottle]

View attachment 154817

On the one hand, LOL.
On the other hand, Fed has started cutting in the past when CPI was trending upwards so it isn't unheard of.

25bps sounds like a reasonable hike.

Guidance and statement of economic projections are going to be critical.

 

[over9k]

On the one hand, LOL.
On the other hand, Fed has started cutting in the past when CPI was trending upwards so it isn't unheard of.

25bps sounds like a reasonable hike.

Guidance and statement of economic projections are going to be critical.

25 seems certain to me. Probably won't even signal a pause - i.e will leave the door open for more.

 

[waterbottle]

25 seems certain to me. Probably won't even signal a pause - i.e will leave the door open for more.

I've seen one commentator suggest they may reduce their repo rate to encourage money into the economy. Sounds stimulative to me...

 

[over9k]

I've seen one commentator suggest they may reduce their repo rate to encourage money into the economy. Sounds stimulative to me...

Mm the thing is, like the housing lobby and rates over here, there's a lot of people that want the central bank to do A when it knows it really should do B.

Those people also have the politicians on the take and the central banks operate at the behest of the politicians.

 

[over9k]

They also haven't deviated one iota from forward guidance aside from that one time they gave us a 100 when a 75 was expected so there's also that to consider.

 

[waterbottle]

They also haven't deviated one iota from forward guidance aside from that one time they gave us a 100 when a 75 was expected so there's also that to consider.

True.

To his credit, JPowell has been consistent with his messaging.

 

[divs4ever]

25 seems certain to me. Probably won't even signal a pause - i.e will leave the door open for more.

some seem to be hoping for a pause ( i am on the sidelines with popcorn this time )

for me reacting to the reaction seems my best option ( reducing in the rallies , seeing if anything attractive is cheap in the dips )

the global economy is on the brink of chaos .. can i find some opportunities ?

could be the mother-of-all-train-wrecks if consensus picked wrong

 

[over9k]

25 seems certain to me. Probably won't even signal a pause - i.e will leave the door open for more.

Told you.

 

[waterbottle]

Economic projections pretty much unchanged

 

[over9k]

Aka 1-2 more and then a pause.

 

[waterbottle]

JPowell explaining reasoning. Sounds like the bank crisis shook them - they considered a pause - but couldn't ignore inflation data so opted for a hike.

Private credit tightening considered similar to Fed hikes, hence the change in language.

 

[waterbottle]

JPowell: We don't see rate cuts for 2023

 

[waterbottle]

Wow crazy meeting.

JPowell gets asked about unemployment at 4.5% (as per projections) and then he opens his answer with a discussion about recession LOL.

Methinks the Fed believes that private credit contraction will be much more significant than what it has been so far. Let's see.

Also had Yellen not committing to broadening FDIC depositor insurance for regionals.

Interesting thing in all of this is that the market has been so wrong on so many occasions throughout the past year. JPowell has stuck to his guns and continued to hike. The goal has been, is and will be a target of 2% inflation. Everything else can go to hell.

 

[qldfrog]

So the fed keep raising but on a drip..not enough to kill inflation as UK showing..how is this supposed to work?.
Recession killing demand, sure, yet federal deficits are demand aren't they and they keep increasing..devaluing " the value of money aka the fiat usd"
So commodities ,energy and food all carry on leading to inflation and recession..yes you can get both..
It is also named misery

 

[waterbottle]

So the fed keep raising but on a drip..not enough to kill inflation as UK showing..how is this supposed to work?.
Recession killing demand, sure, yet federal deficits are demand aren't they and they keep increasing..devaluing " the value of money aka the fiat usd"
So commodities ,energy and food all carry on leading to inflation and recession..yes you can get both..
It is also named misery

Not necessarily. They're hoping that the events of the past few weeks will continue and lead to private credit contraction. Unfortunately they can't quantify it in terms of interest rate hikes.

They've also left themselves open to future rate hikes and they're planning to keep rates elevated for the entirety of 2023. **** even the 2024 projections are high.

 

[over9k]

"If we have to raise rates more than expected, we will".

Markets PLUMMETED in response. +1.1 to -1.17 on the NDX and still dropping.

Edit: Close 1.6 into the red. Lol.

 

[waterbottle]

"If we have to raise rates more than expected, we will".

Markets PLUMMETED in response. +1.1 to -1.17 on the NDX and still dropping.

Jackson Hole Mk2?

Crypto down bigly. Looks like risk off to me but let's wait until EOD

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Thanks for the running commentary, guys.

2024 isn't that far away.

 

[waterbottle]

Thanks for the running commentary, guys.

2024 isn't that far away.

The real question is are we starting a 'Recession 2023' or 'Recession 2024' thread?

 

[over9k]

The real question is are we starting a 'Recession 2023' or 'Recession 2024' thread?

2024. Definition of recession is two quarters of contraction so the contraction would have to start within the next 3 months and that seems... Unlikely.