Seems to me being a touch cynical that those who could and perhaps should be mouthing off are sitting very comfortably in the back row reading comics of some description, instead of asking the hard questions.given Japan is now the clear No. 1 international holder of US Treasuries ( despite some selling to save the yen ) , yes i agree Japan might the crow in the coal-mine ( won't give you much warning of methane , but you will sure notice it is dead )
Bill Evans ? well it is easy to look good in the current crop of high-profile Australian economic commentators/professors/gurus
so yeah he is OK but did prefer some of the more provocative ones seen in the re-2020 era who would lash out with searing barbs where they thought it was needed
those with the 'hard questions' might have been cancelled , we saw a trend like that during the pandemic ( i see some independent/alternative journalists are now deliberately uninvited from press conferences , and other events only pre-arranged questions are taken )Seems to me being a touch cynical that those who could and perhaps should be mouthing off are sitting very comfortably in the back row reading comics of some description, instead of asking the hard questions.
This just means he most likely thinks we will be in recession by then.Bill Evans, Westpac Economist, has a good history for getting interest rates right. He is a bit of a guru.
He is predicting 4.1% by May then dropping to 2.35% by March 2025. (Source: Interview on ABC radio this morning that I listened to on the way to work).
I think a few of us are thinking in the same line. In the modern low growth economic world, interest rates can't stay high for too long.
In effect, so we will need a mildly stimulating interest rate setting to use his words. He does say that the further 3 interest rate rises will be needed though. If they don't occur we will have elevated interest rates for longer.This just means he most likely thinks we will be in recession by then.
Me too, old school. Wish we heard more from him.I like Bill Evans, he has gone against the pack a few times and has been correct more times than not.
Sad but more thn likely the case.those with the 'hard questions' might have been cancelled , we saw a trend like that during the pandemic ( i see some independent/alternative journalists are now deliberately uninvited from press conferences , and other events only pre-arranged questions are taken )
( maybe they are writing internet blogs now )
I briefly saw something on US register sales dropping something like 45%.
I've heard from people that really analysed the US data saying that it's "on trend for recession".
I'm in two minds about recent data.
Mainly for the fact that the lockdowns created a surge. I'm not sure if it's been taken into account, or just used by bears as a "look at this" data point. It must have skewed figures.
I mean the "consumer surge" both during and just after lockdowns.Do you mean the China post-lockdown surge?
I would think the surge, if any, would be as long-lived as any other country's surge.
And from an investment manager who is not in need of hyperboleGlobal Depression By 2025, Caused By Interest Rates & Inflation -
at last , somebody actually vocalizing the D-word
The driving force across financial markets for the past 18-months, has been the reappearance of worryingly high levels of inflation throughout developed world economies. Having spent the decade between the global financial crisis and the pandemic dealing with inflation that was too low, central bankers have, with very little warning, been presented with the opposite problem. At stake in confronting this is not just the mundane sounding problem of ‘maintaining price stability’, but the hard-won inflation fighting credibility of central banks themselves...
Having initially been too slow to respond during the latter part of 2021, policy makers spent most of 2022 trying to get out ahead of the problem. The result was one of the fastest policy tightening cycles on record. From a financial markets’ perspective, most of the pain from this was felt during the first half of calendar 2022. From the end of December 2021 to the end of June 2022, global equity and bond markets fell considerably - in US$ terms, by 20.2% and 15.6% respectively. What was striking about these falls was both their magnitude, and the fact that both asset classes recorded such steep falls at the same time. Conventional asset management theory typically seeks to create portfolios that combine both asset classes, under the assumption that they rarely move in the same direction at the same time. Sadly, holding bonds and shares together during the first half of 2022 greatly amplified investment risk instead of ameliorating it...
Turning to the December half of 2022, and the 6-month period of our review, what is noteworthy is that, by and large, market forces had normalised. That might seem an odd thing to say with inflation rates near double digits in many countries, central banks continuing to tighten policy, and a lot of hyperbole around this from market commentators. However, by the middle of 2022, most of the painful adjustments that central banks needed to deliver were done, both in terms of the actual tightening of monetary policy, and in terms of setting the markets expectations around the relatively modest amounts of tightening that was still to come. It is true that the investment landscape we are confronted with today looks very different to the one we have been used to for many years: in the US, short term interest rates have rarely been much above zero for the past 14 years, yet today they sit at 4.5%. Nevertheless, for the forward-looking market, by July of 2022 the necessary adjustment to this ‘new normal’ was largely complete. Over the December half-year period, financial markets were largely range-bound, a feature of the fact that while we don’t know exactly when the current tightening cycle will end, the finish line is now clearly in sight. The arguments today are whether the US Fed is going to raise interest rates by a final 0.25% or 0.5%, not whether there is a further 2% or 4% of tightening to come. In US$ terms, global share markets eked out a 2.3% gain during the December half, while global bond markets fell 1.6%. Most major currencies were also little changed against the US$ over the period, as were key commodities such as Oil, Gold, and Copper (a notable exception to this was Iron Ore, which rose by 15.7% over the period). Indeed, given the volatility of asset classes like Oil and global share markets, what is most striking is how little prices moved over a 6-month window...
UK inflation came in at 17.1%, another record high for that country.View attachment 153778
U.K was 11.0 vs 10.8 estimated or something like that last results too.
Europe continues to take it in the ass.
This. The question is where the turning point is. Perception is reality here - once people get nervous, they stop spending, so things then go south.I mean the "consumer surge" both during and just after lockdowns.
I wonder how many of the millenials are affected by mortgage rates?This. The question is where the turning point is. Perception is reality here - once people get nervous, they stop spending, so things then go south.
Are they nervous yet or are millennials too addicted to their spending habits?
They probably are more honest, there remains in the Brits a left over of ethics which was never there in the US..or hereUK inflation came in at 17.1%, another record high for that country.
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