Inflation

[farmerge]

Exactly mate.. corporate greed & exploitation of us vulnerable consumer's occuring on a daily basis across just about everything out there - Government has no control on prices whatsoever & then worse still think RBA can handle inflation (which it clearly can't as again only targets & inflicts more pain on us vulnerable consumer's).

Becomes a double whammy hit on consumer's whilst big greedy corporations get away with hiking up prices as they wish. True inflation running closer to 15%-20% in my opinion.

What more can I add except HELP I'm stinking in the mire!!!!!

 

[farmerge]

I'm sure we talked about this back during covid. Supply shortages increased prices and those prices would be the new floor.
Everyone had to adjust prices to match the new reality.

Huge amount of blame should be shifted onto the majors.

Not a hope. The big end of town has mates in the right placs whereas ours are languishing below the bottom rung of the ladder.

 

[wayneL]

Just stop buying all this crap untill the price is right. If enough of us do that, it'll fix the problem.

 

[Knobby22]

Just stop buying all this crap untill the price is right. If enough of us do that, it'll fix the problem.

Also, highlight the problem to show the monopoly action so government may split the company or do something about the barriers to new entrants. Of course duopolies and monopolies usually donate healthily to election funds and are often foreign owned.

 

[divs4ever]

Just stop buying all this crap untill the price is right. If enough of us do that, it'll fix the problem.

what i have been doing is stocking up on stuff , where the price is still close to 2020 levels ( and have a very long shelf-life )

so the dilemma is buy now and let inflation make your buy a bargain ( doesn't work on stuff with a 'fashion premium ' , like cars , phones )

or wait hoping for a widespread price collapse rather than a supply collapse ( folks stop making/selling stuff because there is no profit in it )

 

[waterbottle]

Wasn't the terminal rate 4.1 a few days ago? Now we're closing in on 4.4 yikes....

 

[over9k]

Look for the timing bottle, september appears to be the last hike so AU house prices, the market etc will see a bounce if the october meeting "doesn't raise any more for now".

I'm aiming to pull the trigger on buying a house a few days after the september hike (assuming it happens) because the average person (not least of all, real estate agents) has no idea about this stuff

 

[over9k]

Durable goods etc numbers in, markets liked it, looking like green tonight. Little else to report.

 

[divs4ever]

US Durable Goods Orders Plunged Most Since COVID Lockdowns In January​

US Durable Goods Orders Plunged Most Since COVID Lockdowns In January | ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

Zerohedge sees the numbers differently

 

[over9k]

Alright @Smurf1976, do I make another degen BOIL play?

(magic 8-ball says yes)

 

[farmerge]

Just checked in to the DOW before I hit the Slumber King. At this early stage of the proceedings, all green at 350+ points zooming towards the stratsosphere, does this, will this signal a Terrific Tuesday for our follow the leader the ASX???????
And now gone

 

[Smurf1976]

Alright @Smurf1976, do I make another degen BOIL play?

(magic 8-ball says yes)

US Natural Gas was down almost to $2 a couple of days ago, now it's up to $2.77 so almost 40% up.

The huge volatility in % terms, and the simple fact that it's cheap as such, raises a few questions.

On one hand US production is clearly in a long term uptrend:

U.S. Natural Gas Gross Withdrawals (Million Cubic Feet)

On the other hand, the rig count and thus likely future production looks nowhere near so healthy:

U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Rotary Rigs in Operation (Number of Elements)

And whilst this chart's a bit behind, the number of wells in production also seems to be trending down:

U.S. Natural Gas Number of Gas and Gas Condensate Wells (Number of Elements)

Putting that together, on the fundamental side the recent growth trend in production seems unlikely to be sustained long term. Fewer wells and less drilling isn't a good way to grow gas production.

Short term though well my I'm thinking the price drop is perhaps at least somewhat related to the market seeing a broader economic issues? I say that simply due to the speed and extent of the drop - it was up around $6 late last year now it's half or even a third of that. Fundamentals of physical production didn't change that drastically, so the market's seeing something?

Storage looks fairly unremarkable:

Lower 48 States Natural Gas Working Underground Storage (Billion Cubic Feet)

 

[over9k]

I was actually thinking from this angle:



But if the american supply/demand balance is out of kilter too then that can only help to raise prices further.

 

[Knobby22]

Bill Evans, Westpac Economist, has a good history for getting interest rates right. He is a bit of a guru.

He is predicting 4.1% by May then dropping to 2.35% by March 2025. (Source: Interview on ABC radio this morning that I listened to on the way to work).

I think a few of us are thinking in the same line. In the modern low growth economic world, interest rates can't stay high for too long.

 

[over9k]

Bill Evans, Westpac Economist, has a good history for getting interest rates right. He is a bit of a guru.

He is predicting 4.1% by May then dropping to 2.35% by March 2025. (Source: Interview on ABC radio this morning that I listened to on the way to work).

I think a few of us are thinking in the same line. In the modern low growth economic world, interest rates can't stay high for too long.

Growth =/= inflation though knobby. Supply side issues = low growth, high inflation (stagflation).

And there's a lot of supply side issues.

 

[Knobby22]

Growth =/= inflation though knobby. Supply side issues = low growth, high inflation (stagflation).

And there's a lot of supply side issues.

My take may be wrong but I look at Japan and think much of the rest of the world is heading in that direction.

What do you think of Bill Evans prediction?

 

[over9k]

My take may be wrong but I look at Japan and think much of the rest of the world is heading in that direction.

What do you think of Bill Evans prediction?

Peak's probably faaaaaairly close, it's the peak then dropoff i disagree with.

I think it'll be a bounce & then plateau.

 

[farmerge]

Peak's probably faaaaaairly close, it's the peak then dropoff i disagree with.

I think it'll be a bounce & then plateau.

As long as the bounce is not like a tennis ball more like a sponge. Low level projectory.

 

[over9k]

Here's the aforementioned tug-of-war I keep talking about. Rate rises vs earnings.

 

[divs4ever]

My take may be wrong but I look at Japan and think much of the rest of the world is heading in that direction.

What do you think of Bill Evans prediction?

given Japan is now the clear No. 1 international holder of US Treasuries ( despite some selling to save the yen ) , yes i agree Japan might the crow in the coal-mine ( won't give you much warning of methane , but you will sure notice it is dead )

Bill Evans ? well it is easy to look good in the current crop of high-profile Australian economic commentators/professors/gurus

so yeah he is OK but did prefer some of the more provocative ones seen in the re-2020 era who would lash out with searing barbs where they thought it was needed