Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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sptrawler said:
Yes I think a lot of the stocks have peaked, I'm only into dividends and renewable linked shares, that are going to get Govt injections as they chase the holy grail.
As far as inflation goes, I'm seeing a drop of in consumer activity, but I'm also seeing price increases in cost of staples at the two major supermarkets and consumers can't avoid a lot of those rises.
Just my two cents worth.
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A lot of the stuff that we are (previously, but no longer) interested in buying for our property improvement, will no longer be purchases in the near future, not unless absolutely imperative.

Like, no I am not going to pay 50-100% increase from a year ago, you can go straight to hell.

IOW, 7% inflation?

Pfffft, farkin BS.

Anyone tried to buy a Waratah, or a coppers log, or freaking glyphosate lately? Or practically anything at Bunnings that hasn't increased by 50%?

Bohemia beckons.
 
wayneL said:
A lot of the stuff that we are (previously, but no longer) interested in buying for our property improvement, will no longer be purchases in the near future, not unless absolutely imperative.

Like, no I am not going to pay 50-100% increase from a year ago, you can go straight to hell.

IOW, 7% inflation?

Pfffft, farkin BS.

Anyone tried to buy a Waratah, or a coppers log, or freaking glyphosate lately? Or practically anything at Bunnings that hasn't increased by 50%?

Bohemia beckons.
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The price shock gave me heart burn, so I went to woolies to buy a packet of 5 quick eze, they were $6.50/ pack three months ago, today $9, that isn't 5%. ?
So I thought sod I'll buy milk instead, the long life we buy has gone up from $2.50 to $3 since last time.?
I'm going to have to do an apprenticeship with you Wayne, the missus loves metal art, so I can cut costs if I make it myself.:wheniwasaboy:
 
Core PCE at 4.3 annual, jobless claims below estimates, U.S economy in excellent shape. Futures deep into the green before the data released, small hiccup but remaining very elevated in response.

Fixed income numbers all spiked significantly which basically just tells us that the economy is in such good shape that it can handle further rate rises no problemo.

I've been saying that this is the future for america for a long, long time.
 
waterbottle said:
I'm interested: why do you think there'll be another dip?
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The money is drying up.

Costs of doing business is ridiculous

Theres some ridiculous debt out there.

Takes about a year to see the effects of interest rate rises. I think from march onwards it will start to bite more and more each month.

Hedge funds dictate a lot of what is going on and they are playing it safe.

At some point term deposits and bonds get attractive as a safe return.

There's a lot more but I'm slightly brain dead this morning.

I think the reserve bank is of the opinion that this needs to pop. I'd expect a hard landing of sorts.
 
moXJO said:
Yeah I was listening to a bear the other day and his arguments were plausible.
I also saw a bunch of gyms go out of business which is my leading indicator to hard recession.
So I'm in a bearish mood. I'll let the stops take me out as it will probably run.
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LOTS of places up for sale around airlie beach at the moment. Even big money holiday palaces.

Superior goods going first, then comes the midrange and inferior goods...
 
moXJO said:
I mentioned before that "layoffs bring in new tech".
It's time to get ready for the next round of startups that will change the top line ups.
Google, meta, Amazon, Apple are all long in the tooth.

So get ready for the next gen of multibaggers.
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Yeah I read a good piece about this - there's a lot of ex google etc talent being scooped up by startups on the cheap at the moment.

I'm reminded of this scene here:



"They were good at their jobs, but you are better".

Was the fat trimmed from google et al actually fat or not? Are they actually really talented people that just weren't the *best* or are they genuine fat that honestly needed to go anyway?
 
over9k said:
Was the fat trimmed from google et al actually fat or not? Are they actually really talented people that just weren't the *best* or are they genuine fat that honestly needed to go anyway?
Click to expand...

Or has Google simply passed its peak of relevance?

My personal perception of it is that it's come to a point of being the stereotypical overweight bureaucracy that's lost focus. Same with most of the others.

Just how good is Google, really, at performing it's original core business these days?



Same for several of the others. At best they've turned into established companies akin to supermarkets or utilities. Hard to shake but not very exciting anymore. At worst they've lost focus on the original core business and are ripe for disruption.

To the extent there's a fortune to be made in tech, it's not with these now firmly established companies in my view. :2twocents
 
Big call smurf. These companies are leviathans. They can simply buy up any and everything that even looks like it's going to be a threat. Hell, worst case for them they've got enough money/power/influence to just stifle any innovation they didn't think of themselves.

They are holding both the carrot and the stick, so to speak.
 
From that free 'Gold summit presentation' yesterday picked up on following stated below (that apparently impacts Gold price since has a direct correlation)

"To calculate the REAL interest rate, you take the US Federal Reserve rate...and SUBTRACT inflation from it.

But NOT current inflation, which is obviously really high around the world right now.

You use inflation EXPECTATIONS — which is where the market says inflation is headed.

Basically, subtract inflation expectations from the Federal Reserve interest rate...and you get ‘real’ interest rates.

When real rates fall…Gold often soars (and real rates have begun to fall)".
 
34624362435.jpg23642562456.jpg

"People are becoming much more comfortable holding fixed income again".

Yep, higher rates K.O risk premium and p/e and so will do that to an investment portfolio.

He did mention that short duration is being favoured over long however, which suggests the market expects inflation to be relatively transitory.

This is where I disagree, I think that a lot of what's driving the inflation we're now seeing has legs ;)
 

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