Inflation

[JohnDe]

Japan now reporting 3.7% inflation. Not the first ountry to continue the trend of ever increasing inflation.
Inflation might be tamed in the US but it certainly isn't in Europe, Australia or Japan.
It begs the question - will these central bankers continue hiking despite a Fed pivot?

Our Reserve bank makes me laugh.

First, they tell us to borrow and borrow big because rates are locked in until 2024.

And then they say 'oops, that wasn't quite right, Australian's have been naughty and spending too much'.

And now that we've slayed the unemployment dragon the Reserve bank is pissed off because people have money in the bank and want to spend it.

 

[moXJO]

Is unemployment low because more boomers retired?
Seems like a hole that won't fill.
I'm sure we moved past "peak population".

 

[qldfrog]

Is unemployment low because more boomers retired?
Seems like a hole that won't fill.
I'm sure we moved past "peak population".

not only boomer. I am 55 and out and there is quite a huge number of similar people around here on the sunny coast.
This country is trying its upmost to push people out of business and work, if they can afford thru taxes and regulations/red tape, and it works

 

[moXJO]

not only boomer. I am 55 and out and there is quite a huge number of similar people around here on the sunny coast.
This country is trying its upmost to push people out of business and work, if they can afford thru taxes and regulations/red tape, and it works

The amount of costs to business is ridiculous right now. Too many leeches that don't provide much benefit.

I was out at 40 something and got dragged back in. Or was it late 30s... You start losing track of time after a while.

 

[divs4ever]

Our Reserve bank makes me laugh.

First, they tell us to borrow and borrow big because rates are locked in until 2024.

And then they say 'oops, that wasn't quite right, Australian's have been naughty and spending too much'.

And now that we've slayed the unemployment dragon the Reserve bank is pissed off because people have money in the bank and want to spend it.

sounds just like my parents ( whatever you do was wrong )

ergo i just do what i think is correct and ignore the opinions after the event

unless the RBA moves the market ( housing , stocks or bonds ) it's all just noise to me

 

[divs4ever]

Is unemployment low because more boomers retired?
Seems like a hole that won't fill.
I'm sure we moved past "peak population".

don't worry they will import cannon-fodder to fill the gap , and then wonder why there is no loyalty ( to the company or nation )

very likely we have gone beyond peak-productivity

 

[waterbottle]

Crude at $77/barrel...whats going on?

 

[divs4ever]

most likely a price disconnect ,

you buy as cheap as you like , as long as you don't expect physical delivery ( just like silver and gold)

sounds like a trick price to try to fill the Strategic Reserve as cheaply as possible

 

[over9k]

Around & around & around we go...

 

[Knobby22]

View attachment 149554

Around & around & around we go...

Also shipping container costs. Both these items are anti inflationary however does this show a return to a new normal or a recession?

 

[over9k]

Also shipping container costs. Both these items are anti inflationary however does this show a return to a new normal or a recession?
View attachment 149562

A bit of both. Collapse in demand from the lockdowns yes but china's macro demographics/structure is beyond terminal.

 

[over9k]

Opec now mulling a 500k/day increase. NRGU pounded. Bought at 550.

 

[moXJO]

Opec now mulling a 500k/day increase. NRGU pounded. Bought at 550.

You think this leg down is short lived?

 

[divs4ever]

Opec now mulling a 500k/day increase. NRGU pounded. Bought at 550.

increase from what ??

500K above 2021 levels or 500K up from the proposed cut levels ( only cutting 1.5Mill a day )

i think this is just gas ( methane ) the price is hinting a floor of $70 a bbl ( too low for many producers to invest in future exploration/development )

 

[over9k]

You think this leg down is short lived?

Saudi's deny the rumours. NRGU runs 10% in minutes. Hilarious.

Growth plays still playing with fire.

 

[waterbottle]

Growth going to be tough. The recession word is now commonly written into several articles - it was barely mentioned in Jan 2022, lots of talk about a soft landing instead.
The question, IMO, is whether markets have/are pricing in a recession. I don't think they have - based on the fact there are still massive dumps everytime a company announces (unexpected?) negative earnings and forecasts. More importantly, it was the hopium that was fueling the market in July-August 2022, only to be slammed by a 5-minute reality check by JPowell at Jackson Hole.

 

[over9k]

Growth going to be tough. The recession word is now commonly written into several articles - it was barely mentioned in Jan 2022, lots of talk about a soft landing instead.
The question, IMO, is whether markets have/are pricing in a recession. I don't think they have - based on the fact there are still massive dumps everytime a company announces (unexpected?) negative earnings and forecasts. More importantly, it was the hopium that was fueling the market in July-August 2022, only to be slammed by a 5-minute reality check by JPowell at Jackson Hole.

Yeah, hence my astonishment at how hard markets ran on another ONE batch of decent inflation data. The last one proved to be very short lived. If we got even two in a row then that would be worth running with.

Fixed income is still pricing the terminal interest rate to occur march next year. Still stacks of uncertainty re: china lockdowns & ukraine war. Plenty of very stormy seas yet.

 

[Smurf1976]

Opec now mulling a 500k/day increase. NRGU pounded. Bought at 550.

Just my theory which can't be proven but I suspect OPEC are in truth pumping flat out and are simply manipulating published quota figures, and building / drawing on their own above ground inventory, to try and control the market but the oil's flowing at the same rate regardless.

Can't prove it but that's my thinking. If you don't want to lose control of the market, if you don't want to acknowledge reality, well then being the bad guy for cutting the quota beats saying you're maxed out. At least that way it at least looks like you're the boss, even if it makes you unpopular it beats saying you've lost control.

Just my thoughts trying to read between the lines and join the dots.

 

[over9k]

Just my theory which can't be proven but I suspect OPEC are in truth pumping flat out and are simply manipulating published quota figures, and building / drawing on their own above ground inventory, to try and control the market but the oil's flowing at the same rate regardless.

Can't prove it but that's my thinking. If you don't want to lose control of the market, if you don't want to acknowledge reality, well then being the bad guy for cutting the quota beats saying you're maxed out. At least that way it at least looks like you're the boss, even if it makes you unpopular it beats saying you've lost control.

Just my thoughts trying to read between the lines and join the dots.

They also have their own internal oil traders that trade on the absolute definition of insider trading so the whole thing could have been a ruse too.

We'd have to know what their positions were before the "rumours" hit the news to determine this however.

 

[over9k]

Also, yeah, I hear you re: much preferable to appear guilty rather than incompetent.