Inflation

[CityIndex]

The Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc outperformed in the FX market last week, while gold also had its best week since March 2020, after the soft US CPI print sparked a heavy pullback in the USD.

The greenback has obviously benefited greatly this year from the hawkish Federal Reserve. All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see if speculation on a possible slowing in the Fed's rate hike cycle helps these other assets which are typically considered "safe-havens" rally while global recession concerns remain.

 

[SirRumpole]

Corporate profits the underlying cause of inflation ?

'We've definitely got a profit crisis': Is corporate gouging the biggest cause of inflation?

Soaring corporate profits are being blamed for fuelling inflation, as figures show companies in Australia are enjoying sky-rocketing profits despite the pandemic.

www.abc.net.au

 

[divs4ever]

Bill Gross: ‘The Fed Knows Nothing’ – Exclusive Interview

https://au.investing.com/analysis/bill-gross-the-fed-knows-nothing--exclusive-interview-200535203

 

[qldfrog]

Corporate profits the underlying cause of inflation ?

'We've definitely got a profit crisis': Is corporate gouging the biggest cause of inflation?

Soaring corporate profits are being blamed for fuelling inflation, as figures show companies in Australia are enjoying sky-rocketing profits despite the pandemic.

www.abc.net.au

@SirRumpole , i understand a deep ingrained "corporate" hate linked to i would suggest a left minded culture ..and i am all good with that, i erred there too in my youth.
But this is their ABC so a story straight from the ALP narrative.
The corporate profits discussed there were for the last FY..only thing you will see, and if you remove banks and minera..not contributing much to inflation here, there are few corporates there left.
These fy 21 22 profits are a straight result of the covid scam pushed by our governments, and were probably mostly made in the last 2021 calendar year..
Stocks purchased at before covid area and then dumped in a situation of shortage.
Do not shot the messenger..?

 

[divs4ever]

blame everything except Government/RBA policy is the message

 

[SirRumpole]

But this is their ABC so a story straight from the ALP narrative.

I would have thought so too if not for the fact that it was backed up by the Chief economist of Global Wealth Management.

 

[Belli]

Corporate profits the underlying cause of inflation ?

That particular piece is four months behind the curve. It was mooted in June in this article.

Are record corporate profits driving inflation? Here's what experts think.

Economists disagree over whether record corporate profits have driven inflation.

abcnews.go.com

 

[qldfrog]

That particular piece is four months behind the curve. It was mooted in June in this article.

Are record corporate profits driving inflation? Here's what experts think.

Economists disagree over whether record corporate profits have driven inflation.

abcnews.go.com

Indeed, past news but only to justify some dpecial taxes etc which could finish already struggling economy.
The issue with relying on ato and abs whhichare aleays being the curve..a bit like using MA() on too long a period......?

 

[divs4ever]

Indeed, past news but only to justify some dpecial taxes etc which could finish already struggling economy.
The issue with relying on ato and abs whhichare aleays being the curve..a bit like using MA() on too long a period......?

yes the lag in data , is a big trap ( like relying on a formal declaration of recession )

the data can be useful , but not as the primary source of decision-making

 

[SirRumpole]

That particular piece is four months behind the curve. It was mooted in June in this article.

Are record corporate profits driving inflation? Here's what experts think.

Economists disagree over whether record corporate profits have driven inflation.

abcnews.go.com

Hah, ask 3 economists the same question and get 4 different answers.

 

[Belli]

Hah, ask 3 economists the same question and get 4 different answers.

Yeah. I only read articles sometimes and post them occasionally. Drawing conclusions from them is way beyond my pay scale and level of arrogance.

 

[divs4ever]

i only look to see if the opinion will move the market ( and can i take advantage of that move )

it might only make ( or save ) me 5 cents a share , but 5 cents is 5 cents i can invest elsewhere ( somebody has to show fiscal restraint )

 

[mullokintyre]

Saw this on the twitter thing this morning.
Its by a former Goldman Sachs economist, but he does not state his source.
That looks like a contraction into recession territory.
Mick

 

[frugal.rock]

 

[over9k]

PPI up 0.2 month on month vs estimated 0.4. Year on year 8.0 vs 8.3 estimated. More good data. Everything pumping.

 

[divs4ever]

PPI up 0.2 month on month vs estimated 0.4. Year on year 8.0 vs 8.3 estimated. More good data. Everything pumping.

was that PPI a result of artificially lowered energy( oil/gas ) costs. ??

take extreme care , when your data isn't rock-solid , it's like dancing across a mangrove swamp ( blind-folded )

 

[waterbottle]

Stray Russian rockets have hit Poland, 2 people killed...

 

[againsthegrain]

Stray Russian rockets have hit Poland, 2 people killed...

So more sanctions at minimum if those missiles were russian, double digits inflation... official that is

 

[mullokintyre]

OZ wages have increased by1% in the October quarter.
From Evil Murdoch Empire

Wages growth accelerated to the fastest pace in a decade over the three months to September, but remained less than half the pace of inflation and confirmed the ongoing hit to workers’ real pay rates.
The wage price index lifted by 1 per cent in the third quarter lifting the annual increase to 3.1 per cent, from 2.6 per cent in the year to June, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

In seasonally adjusted terms, this growth was primarily driven by increases in wages for the private sector, which grew at twice the rate of wages in the public sector through the quarter, at 1.2 per cent compared to 0.6 per cent.
ABS program manager of prices Michelle Marquardt said it was “the highest quarterly growth in hourly wages recorded since March quarter 2012”.

The data also showed that a larger proportion of workers were getting bigger pay rises.

“Labour market pressures in the private sector combined with the largest Fair Work Commission award increase in more than a decade saw rises in both the size of average wage changes, and the proportion of private sector jobs recording a wage change,” Ms Marquardt said.

It is instructive to see the rather different take on these figures by the ABC News

The official measure of wages growth is finally starting to take off, but public sector workers like Kimbra Pettit are being left further behind.

Key points:​

• Quarterly wage growth of 1.2 per cent in the private sector was the strongest in 12 years
• Public sector wage growth for the quarter and the year remained around 2019 levels
• The ABS said the largest Fair Work award wage increase in more than a decade contributed to private sector wage growth

The official wage price index jumped 1 per cent over the September quarter, the fastest rate of increase since March 2012, and was up 3.1 per cent over the year to September.

The figures from the same quarter a year ago showed a somewhat different story.
From SMH

Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows private sector wage growth is subdued to lower rates than the public sector during financial shocks, including the global financial crisis. This has also been borne out during the coronavirus recession, with the latest data showing a 0.2 per cent rise in the wage price index in the June quarter, the lowest increase on record.

Private sector wages increased 0.1 per cent, while the public sector jumped 0.6 per cent over the same period.

Stats are a wonderful thing, you can make them show just about anything you want.
For a seven year or so, the private sector lagged behind the public sector. Perhaps its catch up time.

Note edited to change the time period from an incorrect decade to a more correct seven years.


Mick

 

[divs4ever]

yes , there are lies , damn lies , and statistics

a famous quote ( but have forgotten who said it first )