Inflation

[over9k]

So far as US oil exports are concerned, just a couple of observations.

First is that the idea of the US exporting crude oil is itself a recent one. For a very long period it was effectively banned so the idea is in no way unprecedented.

Second is about having any oil to export. US production hasn't recovered to pre-pandemic levels and looks to be tapering off or even rolling over from the present rate of output. On a net basis the US plausibly isn't going to have anything to sell anyway unless their own consumption collapses or they get serious about growing their production.

Hence me still holding a fair bit of GUSH as well as NRGU.

 

[divs4ever]

The political ramifications would be massive. There are already rumblings about the cessation of Russian oil imports in Europe. If Biden restricts US oil output then he can kiss Ukraine goodbye.

some of the decisions made during this conflict have already created massive ramifications ,

can we really expect some more rational decisions going forwards ( when less rational seems to be the trend )

i am half-expecting China to step in with official ( declared ) trade restrictions ( i suspect those Covid outbreaks in the last 18 months , were export bans by another name )

i guess we with have to see what happens before and after the mid-terms IF they are held ( there is even speculation about that )

if Turkey leaves NATO will we have an Arab ( Muslim ) winter of discontent

 

[JohnDe]

i am half-expecting China to step in with official ( declared ) trade restrictions ( i suspect those Covid outbreaks in the last 18 months , were export bans by another name )

Interesting reading -

Will the Chinese of tomorrow live like the Spaniards of today?

China’s communist party is known for its powers of political choreography and economic control. When its leaders gather at moments of pomp and portent, neither the public nor the economy is allowed to spoil the scene. Thus when the party met in 2017 for its twice-a-decade congress, the most important event in the country’s political calendar, the economic stage was expertly set. The currency was stable. Borrowing was tamed. And, as if on cue, China’s statisticians reported that the economy was growing a bit faster than the official target rate.

Five years later, as the country’s leaders began another week-long congress on October 16th, the economic backdrop was much less bright. Consumer spending has been depressed by China’s “zero-covid policy” and its ever-present threat of lockdowns. The property market has faltered. And youth unemployment has risen to around 20%. In marked contrast with five years ago, Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has “botched the political business cycle”, as Barry Naughton of the University of California, San Diego, put it in a recent article.

None of these concerns loomed large in Mr Xi’s report to the congress, which, as is customary, took a loftier, long-term view. He said China would aim to increase its gdp per person to that of a “mid-level developed country” by 2035, repeating a goal set in happier times two years ago. The target is ambitious but vague. It implies an income level of $30,000 or so, according to commentary last year from Liu Shijin, who used to work for a think-tank attached to the cabinet. That is close to Spain’s level of prosperity. If China’s gdp per person were to double in real terms from 2020 to 2035, and if its inflation-adjusted exchange rate rose by about 1% a year, its gdp per person would reach nearly $25,000 (in today’s dollars) in 2035. That is not too far from where Spain is now, although it is presumably far short of where Spain will be by 2035.

That the Chinese of tomorrow might live like the Spaniards of today seems hard to imagine right now. The economy this year will probably grow by less than 3%, far below the official target of 5.5%. On October 18th China postponed the release of a raft of economic figures, including growth for the third quarter. The data may have been delayed because they were off-message: economists had forecast growth of just 3.3%. Another possible reason would be less nefarious—and perhaps more telling. The officials required to sign off on the figures may have been unable to do so because they were stuck inside the strict quarantine bubble of the congress, reported Bloomberg News. Thanks to China’s zero-covid policy, the country’s policymakers have failed to produce a timely economic recovery. They cannot even produce punctual economic data. ■

 

[frugal.rock]

Truss quits.

 

[JohnDe]

Truss quits.

Must be a record.

 

[over9k]

NRGU took a round trip from 523 close yesterday to 557 today and is now back at 523. Hilarious.

 

[over9k]

Must be a record.

It was. 6 weeks on the job. Hilarious.

Markets didn't even move that much in response, which kind of shows you how much of a dumpster fire she really was. Literally as good as nothing.

 

[mullokintyre]

Yeah, she only ticked half the boxes, being a woman.
She needed to be a POC as well.
Mick

 

[CityIndex]

It was. 6 weeks on the job. Hilarious.

Markets didn't even move that much in response, which kind of shows you how much of a dumpster fire she really was. Literally as good as nothing.

After all the turmoil that surrounded her time in office, could her resignation bring the BOE and monetary policy back as the main driver for GBP direction?

 

[over9k]

After all the turmoil that surrounded her time in office, could her resignation bring the BOE and monetary policy back as the main driver for GBP direction?

Depends on who replaces her

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile, more sanctions on chinese chip manufacturers has given SOX/SOXL a little boost.

 

[wayneL]

Depends on who replaces her

Sunak is odds on, Boris having another chip at it too.

But Kemi is still the only true conservative.... AND both female and POC (not that that should matter a damn).

I wish she'd have another crack, but the establishment goons will stop that.

The country is just getting sucked down the 5h1t chute in a vortex of idiocy.

 

[divs4ever]

well Farage has come out and said , he can't make the changes needed alone , claiming the Conservative party is broken

( hinting a new Populist political force is needed ?? )

 

[JohnDe]

well Farage has come out and said , he can't make the changes needed alone , claiming the Conservative party is broken

( hinting a new Populist political force is needed ?? )

It is just the natural cycle of life, regular cleansing. Nothing to worry about, happens all the time and we keep moving forward.

 

[over9k]

Peter hitchens is always worth a listen too.

 

[mullokintyre]

Peter hitchens is always worth a listen too.

Agree.
His Blog here about the conservative party in the UK could equally apply to the conservative parties here in Oz.
Tories lacking belief

Mick

 

[divs4ever]

It is just the natural cycle of life, regular cleansing. Nothing to worry about, happens all the time and we keep moving forward.

am not so sure , this time , the way forward may have forgotten to pre-install the steps down ( believing clean air currents will keep them afloat )

 

[JohnDe]

am not so sure , this time , the way forward may have forgotten to pre-install the steps down ( believing clean air currents will keep them afloat )

I've seen this before, and read about worse. One thing about humans is that we always find a way up.

 

[divs4ever]

i am closing on 70 and had the fortune to spend time with people ( now deceased ) that had clear memories of the turn on the 1900's

i am seeing less glimmers of hope in the younger generations ( i lived through Hippies , and Punks eras )

uniformity is okay when the plan is solid and sound , it is absolutely dangerous once one or two mediocre flaws creep into the plan and arrogance denies the issues exist ( i have worked in companies like that )

i have also been expressly forbidden ( on some jobs ) to use my creativity and initiative to fix problems i have encountered , instead of hoping for an 'expert solution' within six months ( and surviving long enough to witness such a solution, but usually i have changed jobs before any solution is applied )

 

[over9k]

Agree.
His Blog here about the conservative party in the UK could equally apply to the conservative parties here in Oz.
Tories lacking belief

Mick

As he points out, they're not a conservative party. Like the RINO phenomenon in the 'states, they stand for nothing except lining their pockets.

"Bring back boris" is now trending as a hashtag.