Inflation

[frugal.rock]

Degenerates

 

[divs4ever]

No no she's a classy one.

Pastel pink.

sapphires are usually blue , but sometimes yellow/gold or green ( or a mixture )

maybe she should change her name to Ruby or Bubbles

 

[frugal.rock]

( will the oligarchs invest in Africa or Asia )

I would think the middle east would rank in their favour above the 2 mentioned... Turkey ??

 

[over9k]

AUD down 1.5% just on the day and cracked the 62 U.S cents mark. The 50's are now on the horizon.

AUD likely to crack 50 U.S cents at the same time the pound hits parity.

 

[moXJO]

No no she's a classy one.

Pastel pink.

Classic Stacey

 

[moXJO]

Well at least the market did what I was hoping it would do.

 

[over9k]

Insert "this is fine" meme.

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 148210

Insert "this is fine" meme.

is that 'official ' inflation , cherry-picked inflation , or actual inflation

10.1% isn't even fine as a rate on corporate debt ( when i am buying )

 

[over9k]

is that 'official ' inflation , cherry-picked inflation , or actual inflation

10.1% isn't even fine as a rate on corporate debt ( when i am buying )

Official numbers. So reality is probably more like 15-20.

 

[over9k]

Biden's releasing some more.

 

[CityIndex]

Biden's releasing some more.

It will be interesting to see how much of an effect this has on bringing oil/fuel prices down after OPEC's production cut and new EU's new sanctions on Russian oil.

Looking at it in relation to the broader market, after yesterday's Fed commentary highlighted the CB's focus on ore inflation, it seems unlikely that it will have a significant impact on re-pricing for a possible pivot.

 

[over9k]

It will be interesting to see how much of an effect this has on bringing oil/fuel prices down after OPEC's production cut and new EU's new sanctions on Russian oil.

Looking at it in relation to the broader market, after yesterday's Fed commentary highlighted the CB's focus on ore inflation, it seems unlikely that it will have a significant impact on re-pricing for a possible pivot.

SFA. It's politics, it's just the appearance of doing something.

 

[divs4ever]

Official numbers. So reality is probably more like 15-20.

that was what i was concerned about ( my other concern is the rate of inflation growth is not slowing , even though the goal-posts are probably being shifted , before each read-out )

 

[divs4ever]

It will be interesting to see how much of an effect this has on bringing oil/fuel prices down after OPEC's production cut and new EU's new sanctions on Russian oil.

Looking at it in relation to the broader market, after yesterday's Fed commentary highlighted the CB's focus on ore inflation, it seems unlikely that it will have a significant impact on re-pricing for a possible pivot.

i was hearing from some commentators that the US problem was largely a refinery capacity problem , which i found intriguing , the previous crisis ( in the US ) was a logistics problem ( getting the crude to the refineries )

i am expecting a disconnect between oil prices in Asia , compared to oil prices in the West ( and the futures markets prices )

 

[over9k]

Sold a little bit of NRGU at 523 tonight just in case anyone cares. Exact same as the closing price.

 

[over9k]

This is incorrect. Do NOT believe this. Biden can still curtail all or probably to begin with, some, U.S oil exports.

Should that happen, it's economic depression for the rest of us and pretty smooth sailing for them. You could probably expect to see a 5% currency move within the day if/when it gets announced, as well as the U.S energy companies getting absolutely slaughtered and almost every growth play you can think of then screaming.

I suspect they would start with curtailing *some* exports (10% or whatever) and then just keep ratcheting the number up in the same way the fed has ratcheted interest rates up every X period of time.

Energy is NOT a risk-free play.

 

[CityIndex]

i am expecting a disconnect between oil prices in Asia , compared to oil prices in the West ( and the futures markets prices )

That would be really interesting to see, especially if turns into a scenario similar to the disconnect we saw in US and European Nat Gas prices

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 148251

This is incorrect. Do NOT believe this. Biden can still curtail all or probably to begin with, some, U.S oil exports.

Should that happen, it's economic depression for the rest of us and pretty smooth sailing for them. You could probably expect to see a 5% currency move within the day if/when it gets announced, as well as the U.S energy companies getting absolutely slaughtered and almost every growth play you can think of then screaming.

I suspect they would start with curtailing *some* exports (10% or whatever) and then just keep ratcheting the number up in the same way the fed has ratcheted interest rates up every X period of time.

Energy is NOT a risk-free play.

The political ramifications would be massive. There are already rumblings about the cessation of Russian oil imports in Europe. If Biden restricts US oil output then he can kiss Ukraine goodbye.

 

[over9k]

The political ramifications would be massive. There are already rumblings about the cessation of Russian oil imports in Europe. If Biden restricts US oil output then he can kiss Ukraine goodbye.

We'll see...

 

[Smurf1976]

So far as US oil exports are concerned, just a couple of observations.

First is that the idea of the US exporting crude oil is itself a recent one. For a very long period it was effectively banned so the idea is in no way unprecedented.

Second is about having any oil to export. US production hasn't recovered to pre-pandemic levels and looks to be tapering off or even rolling over from the present rate of output. On a net basis the US plausibly isn't going to have anything to sell anyway unless their own consumption collapses or they get serious about growing their production.