Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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i could be wrong , but to me the market seems to be factoring a 1% hike ( or a pivot that is too late to stop the slide )

the latest US bill ( the inflation reduction act ) looks like they are going for a tax raid ( since the new agents will be armed and willing to use deadly force )

looks like a crime spree is going to erupt both sides of the thin blue line
 
I doubt that there was any further data points needed on the level of inflation, but another one caught my eye this morning.
From Bloombergs
The Nice household is one of some 20 million across the country—about 1 in 6 American homes—that have fallen behind on their utility bills. It is, according to the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (Neada), the worst crisis the group has ever documented. Underpinning those numbers is a blistering surge in electricity prices, propelled by the soaring cost of natural gas.
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So 15% of households in the US are falling behind on utility bills.
This figure will likely get worse before it gets better, and the number of disconnections will rise.
Of course, its only the people at the bottom of the food chain who get badly afected by these increases.
from The evil Murdoch Empire
Across a parched California, residents enduring a punishing drought are doing their bit to conserve water, taking shorter showers and packing their dishwashers efficiently to reduce waste.
However, some of the state’s wealthier citizens appear to be paying little attention, using vast amounts of water to keep pools filled and lawns green.

Sylvester Stallone, Kim Kardashian, the comedian Kevin Hart and the basketball star Dwyane Wade are among more than 2,000 customers given notices of exceedance by Las Virgenes Municipal Water District in southern California, according to the Los Angeles Times. They face having flow restrictor devices fitted, which can reduce lawn sprinklers to a trickle.

Stallone’s $US18m ($25.9m) million property in Hidden Hills, which he owns with his wife, Jennifer Flavin, 54, used about 533pc more than its budget in June, according to the paper.

Wade, 40, three times an NBA champion, received a notice at the $US18m home he shares with his wife, the actress Gabrielle Union. The property was said to have exceeded its water budget in June by more than 1,400pc. In May the property used 2.2m litres over its allowance, more than any other customer, it is alleged. Wade and Union, 49, blamed a problem with their pool and said they had “taken drastic steps” to cut usage.

A property in Calabasas belonging to Hart, 43, used about 519pc more than its budget for June. He has perhaps left himself vulnerable to charges of hypocrisy over his water use. In May he appeared in adverts for the plant-based meat brand Beyond Meat and touted its environmentally friendly credentials.

In the advert that he shared with his 152m Instagram followers, Hart said: “We’ve got to go beyond traditional thinking, make changes that are better for the planet.”

Kardashian had two properties that received notices. They exceeded their budget for June by about a million litres. It is not the first time Kardashian has been criticised for her water use.
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Its the same old story of gross hypocrisy. Hardship, sacrifice, changing lifestyles etc etc are not for the rich elites, they have a higher calling.
Mick( wearing his most cynical hat.)
 
divs4ever said:
YEP !

and the delay on approvals for Acland 3 at New Hope

do anyone not how little coal was sold from New Hope's Queensland mines ?? ( 14,000 tonnes this quarter but none of it sold )

i hope they didn't need the royalties to help balance the state budget

maybe they are stock-piling the coal ready for Hydrogen production ;) ( or for the European winter )
Click to expand...
Good evening,
New Hope gets New Acland Mine Stage 3 mining leases from the Minister for Resources after the Land Court of QLD's recommendation that the leases be granted.

For mine the only remaining primary approval required for New Acland Stage 3 to proceed is an Associated Water Licence by the Department of Regional Development, Manufacturing and Water apparently

Have a very nice evening

Kind regards
rcw1
 
DON'T hold your breath

i might have read earlier releases wrong but management seems to be focusing on NSW assets ( and Bridgeport Energy ) with Acland 3 tagged 'maybe, could be ' after all we had a state election not that long back so hoping for regime change is a bit optimistic ( but they are trying to fast-track any action if Acland3 gets a green light )

the old laptop (and/or internet ) has been struggling all day ( and not just ASF )

have a great evening yourself

cheers
 
mullokintyre said:
I doubt that there was any further data points needed on the level of inflation, but another one caught my eye this morning.
From Bloombergs

So 15% of households in the US are falling behind on utility bills.
This figure will likely get worse before it gets better, and the number of disconnections will rise.
Of course, its only the people at the bottom of the food chain who get badly afected by these increases.
from The evil Murdoch Empire

Its the same old story of gross hypocrisy. Hardship, sacrifice, changing lifestyles etc etc are not for the rich elites, they have a higher calling.
Mick( wearing his most cynical hat.)
Click to expand...
buy a twin for that cynical hat , it is likely to need a back-up

but yes interesting glimpses of unpleasant news , even on mainstream , now

PS , i am expecting the middle class to come under extra pressure as well ( usually they try to obliterate the middle class )
 
I can't edit my previous post, but thought I'd add this graph in showing past falls in WTI crude when recessions occurred. Having said that, this time we have a conflict is disrupting supply (I don't remember Iraq/Afghanistan causing huge disruptions but if any does I'd be interested to hear).

1661562121843.png
 
There is always something missed by those that analyse with one eye open

"Inflation helped, too. Not only did it boost the price of goods, which increased sales-tax revenues; it also raised salaries, in nominal terms, moving people into higher tax brackets."​

States have historic amounts of leftover cash

Aquirky law calls on Massachusetts to send back billions of tax dollars this year. Passed in 1986, it orders the state to refund taxpayers when revenue growth outpaces wage growth. For the first time since 1987 it has been triggered. Massachusetts must return up to $3bn, 7% of tax revenue.

Massachusetts is not alone in raking in a surplus. States across the country have smashed revenue records in the past fiscal year. According to the Pew Charitable Trusts, a non-profit outfit, state governments saved $217.1bn in 2021, exceeding the 2019 record by nearly $100bn.

Why the bonanza? An influx of federal dollars during the pandemic spared states from spending savings. Sales-tax revenues soared as federal stimulus cheques, tax credits and unemployment benefits gave people money to spend. Inflation helped, too. Not only did it boost the price of goods, which increased sales-tax revenues; it also raised salaries, in nominal terms, moving people into higher tax brackets.


20220827_USM943.png

Although the average state carries a debt of $3,641 per resident, none seems to be using its excess revenue to pay off what it owes. Instead, after replenishing rainy-day funds, states are playing with taxes (see map). Thirty-three states and Washington, dc, have passed some sort of tax relief. Many plan to send out rebates. A few have suspended taxes on food or petrol to counter rising prices. Others are seizing the moment to realise long-standing political goals. Democrat-run states are topping up tax credits for those on low incomes and families with young children. Republican ones are cutting taxes.

Ten states have slashed income-tax rates this year and six have cut taxes for firms. Proponents of these cuts argue that this will attract businesses. One-off rebates, argues Timothy Vermeer of the Tax Foundation, a think-tank, could spur inflation just as federal stimulus cheques did.

But changes to tax codes are permanent and risky. The rewards are uncertain; the loss of revenue is immediate. “In theory there is a sweet spot of cutting taxes and increasing growth,” said Justin Theal of Pew, “but in practice the examples are few and far between.” In an election year politicians may be keener to please constituents than to make careful decisions. In South Carolina, where legislators collapsed six tax brackets into three and lowered rates, cutting taxes came after ensuring the state had adequate reserves. Gary Simrill, a champion of the policy, said the cuts were a “calculated risk”.

Forecasters fear a recession, which will make savings more precious and spending more necessary. Early evidence from the first quarter of 2022 shows state-revenue growth declining as federal stimulus dried up. Summoning the will to raise tax rates if things go wrong could be hard. Some states, like Kentucky, plan gradual rate cuts only if revenues meet a certain threshold. But states that forged ahead with cuts might come to envy Massachusetts’s trigger law: bonuses given only in good times may prove to be more prudent.
Click to expand...
 
waterbottle said:
The big question I have is whether oil is now going to plummet, as it has during past recessions, particularly if it's the main driver during this period of inflation
Click to expand...
It's oil price driving the hikes that'll cause the recession. Also a big curveball of lockdowns lifting in china.

Oil's price is a supply side restriction so even if/when we see recession it's likely to be the best of a bad bunch.
 
And nrgu up 14% on the week or 23% if you'd bought the dip on monday:

6567.jpg

These plays obviously start to multiply if you nuke your tech/growth plays and buy energy and vice-versa on the days when they move in opposite directions ;)
 

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