Impact of a Labor/Greens/Teal parliament

[The Triangle]

My thoughts for immediate action ( this year) are

1) Introduction of Federal ICAC legislation with teeth and resources within 6 months
Remit to cover the last 10 years and ongoing investigations. An initial resource allocation of staffing to enable multiple investigations for the first 3 years to deal with an anticipated back log of cases. This would be reduced as these cases are dealt with.

As much as I would like to see this I think the Labor party will do everything in their power to drag this out or give it as much power and support as ASIC (which is F-All). Labor are just as corruptible as the liberals and all the backroom people will be reminding all those labor members who keeps them in place.

My thoughts for immediate action ( this year) are

2) Immediate suspension of new gas and coal proposals
This would be coupled with substantial speeding up of renewable energy and energy storage projects as well as interconnectors and a strong legislative framework that encouraged investment in these areas and quality projects.
Would also be necessary to encourage current gas projects to stay in place/expand to meet short term needs.

These are critical elements of the Teals, Green and Labour agenda. If they aren't moved on ASAP Labour would almost certainly risk even further movement to Teals and The Greens. The actions would be seen as a political clean up act and a reset of Australia's energy future.

And that's why they'll be a one term government. Without resources Australia is a 3rd world country where the only foreign currency comes from tourists visiting Sydney, Tropical QLD, and Uluru. But really I can't wait to hear and read all the rhetoric on the evils of coal and oil and how labor is helping the environment from SBS, ABC, and the Guardian only to see more and more oil and coal projects given the go-ahead over the next 3 years. This government will just keep the left entertained with debates on gender rights, free dental care, millionaire taxes, and corporations doing their part to fight climate change. The only real change will be a different list of corporate and union scumbags getting government handouts and people like me will getting even bigger tax breaks to buy $200,000 electric vehicles and expensive solar panels for my million dollar home(s).

 

[basilio]

As much as I would like to see this I think the Labor party will do everything in their power to drag this out or give it as much power and support as ASIC (which is F-All). Labor are just as corruptible as the liberals and all the backroom people will be reminding all those labor members who keeps them in place.

And that's why they'll be a one term government. Without resources Australia is a 3rd world country where the only foreign currency comes from tourists visiting Sydney, Tropical QLD, and Uluru. But really I can't wait to hear and read all the rhetoric on the evils of coal and oil and how labor is helping the environment from SBS, ABC, and the Guardian only to see more and more oil and coal projects given the go-ahead over the next 3 years. This government will just keep the left entertained with debates on gender rights, free dental care, millionaire taxes, and corporations doing their part to fight climate change. The only real change will be a different list of corporate and union scumbags getting government handouts and people like me will getting even bigger tax breaks to buy $200,000 electric vehicles and expensive solar panels for my million dollar home(s).

A strong independent well resourced ICAC would be a double edged sword. Yes Labour politicians and administrations could come under scrutiny ( remember NSW Edie Obeid scandal) . I suggest fair minded citizens would welcome that scrutiny.

However at this stage the most likely targets for investigation will be a multitude of Coalition deals/decisions made in the last 10 years that stank at the time and have become riper ever since.
---------------------------------
I'm surprised at your dismissal of a renewable energy industry as part of the resources industry. Industry and the mining industry have reached the stage of welcoming an acceleration of renewable energy development. The bottom line is that renewable energy is cheaper than any fossil fuel development. Mining companies are looking at renewable energy projects to reduce their energy costs.

Companies like FMG are determined to turn solar and power energy into green hydrogen for high value exportable energy resources. Even the current Federal Government recognised the economic value of producing vast amounts of solar electricity and selling overseas via undersea cables. That project is on it's way with Sun Power.

There is also a strong industry recognition that electrifying Australia will create new profitable enterprises that will also save industry and consumers money.

Exporting solar energy under the sea: a potential world first for Australian technology

Australia’s largest renewable energy infrastructure project, Sun Cable’s Australian-ASEAN Power Link, aims to export solar power from Australia to Singapore. Read the emissions reduction case study.

www.industry.gov.au

Electrifying Australian households will save billions – report - Energy Monitor

With government investment and streamlined planning, widespread electrification of Australian households can save energy and cut costs.

www.energymonitor.ai

 

[The Triangle]

A strong independent well resourced ICAC would be a double edged sword. Yes Labour politicians and administrations could come under scrutiny ( remember NSW Edie Obeid scandal) . I suggest fair minded citizens would welcome that scrutiny.

However at this stage the most likely targets for investigation will be a multitude of Coalition deals/decisions made in the last 10 years that stank at the time and have become riper ever since.
---------------------------------
I'm surprised at your dismissal of a renewable energy industry as part of the resources industry. Industry and the mining industry have reached the stage of welcoming an acceleration of renewable energy development. The bottom line is that renewable energy is cheaper than any fossil fuel development. Mining companies are looking at renewable energy projects to reduce their energy costs.

Companies like FMG are determined to turn solar and power energy into green hydrogen for high value exportable energy resources. Even the current Federal Government recognised the economic value of producing vast amounts of solar electricity and selling overseas via undersea cables. That project is on it's way with Sun Power.

There is also a strong industry recognition that electrifying Australia will create new profitable enterprises that will also save industry and consumers money.

Exporting solar energy under the sea: a potential world first for Australian technology

Australia’s largest renewable energy infrastructure project, Sun Cable’s Australian-ASEAN Power Link, aims to export solar power from Australia to Singapore. Read the emissions reduction case study.

www.industry.gov.au

Electrifying Australian households will save billions – report - Energy Monitor

With government investment and streamlined planning, widespread electrification of Australian households can save energy and cut costs.

www.energymonitor.ai

I don't dismiss renewables. I dismiss all my tax dollars going into the pockets of companies and think tanks run by millionaires and billionaires who promise some kind of "new" renewable technology just so they get a better parking spot for their jet when they go to Davos and get to sit at the big kids table. I have a problem when XYZ mining company gets paid to put up a solar or wind farm probably sourced entirely from overseas components and the beneficiaries are offshore hedge funds. Or alternatively when a big operation has to use diesel rather than gas because the government lets APA do whatever it wants.

I'm sick of this green hydrogen nonsense. Renewable technology is there. It's been there for a while, heck it's been there since before oil and gas. Australia could very easily build many renewable energy projects. I don't mind the government spending directly on genuine infrastructure but they won't and they don't because they make sure private industry gets profit first at the expense of the taxpayer.

The only Green party policy I think I agree with is taking back utilities and electricity generation from private industry - and that policy they bury at the bottom of a pile of really stupid ideas. "Private" electricity is a national failure in Australia and just about every country where its been done and none of the parties (including the greens or teals) have the guts to push it as a primary policy. This would fix electricity price issues and allow the government to directly control putting renewables into the grid.
- - - -
I would love ICAC. But like I said, I think they'll drag it out for fear It'll eat a few of their own.

 

[orr]

We see a new political landscape in Australia.



What do posters see as policy directions and priorities for the new Parliament ?

As a block, when you look you see;
*Accomplished/Successuful
*Thoughful/ progressive
+Empathetic
+Eridite
+Scientifically literate
Women... In a powerful positions.

And these now inhabit the house of representatives????.
I ask? ....How is broarder Australia going to lift its game to a point too justify such Representation? ....
Ahh thats right; we still have Canavan, Pitt, Dutton, Tudge and Taylor; But powerless/flasid/impotent and just plain plug-ugly as a counter... I can live with that.

Oh the conniptions at 2GB/'Mac-Quarry' and Sky After Dark.....

 

[Eager]

I would love ICAC. But like I said, I think they'll drag it out for fear It'll eat a few of their own.

I actually think there would be a point of difference between Labor and the coalition regarding any future cases. Time and time again we have seen conservative governments at both state and federal levels double down and protect their own when faced with allegations. By comparison I have firm memories of Labor people being sacked from the outset.

 

[Smurf1976]

What do posters see as policy directions and priorities for the new Parliament ?

There are many things I don't know about but one I do know there's a problem with is energy.

Without going into engineering details, there's basically two aspects to that:

1. Price. There's a major price shock underway with both gas and electricity at the wholesale level at present across the NEM (all states except WA and NT).

Of those states Tasmania has the ability to wave some magic wands, do a bit of financial trickery and make the problem disappear and will probably do so.

For the other states though, Queensland's ability to intervene is limited and for the others it effectively is zero. Announcements are coming in the very near future - should start this week and yes it was delayed, by order of the previous government, until after the election very intentionally (although a few companies have spilled the beans to the media by the way).

Given the significance of cost of living politically, and the focus there's been on electricity price in particular at the political level, there's some significance there to a major price jump.

2. Physical gas supply to the south-eastern states collectively, that is NSW, ACT, Vic, Tas and SA taken as a whole but noting that Victoria of itself accounts for about 60% of winter (peak season) gas consumption and is thus the focus.

As the Gippsland Basin fields dry up and production rates drop, and a major field is indeed expected to cease production next financial year, maximum production rate is dropping off even with new (smaller) developments proceeding and would outright plunge in a "no new gas" scenario.

Even with that new investment we're still looking at a pretty major supply drop for 2023 and an almost 50% drop by 2026 from the Longford plant, by far the largest supply source, with declines elsewhere as well.

Further information can be found in the Victorian Gas Planning Report Update dated March 2022 for those interested in detail. Note that much of it's based on the assumption that the Port Kembla Gas Terminal project as well as others does proceed so take care to note the with new gas / without new gas differences if reading it. Without new supply, available gas is set to plunge rather fast.

All things considered, and noting that there's very little time available to be replacing millions of gas appliances in homes and so on (gas space heating accounts for about 70% of peak day demand in Victoria so that's a couple of million appliances), there's really no option other than to stand back and let the (privately funded not government) gas projects proceed.

That's not denying climate change on my part, just noting that there's basically no time to do anything other than a "quick fix" at this stage. Well, at least there isn't much option unless government's feeling really brave and is willing to do a shutdown of sorts of Melbourne. At a guess, no party will choose that track - though the politics would be rather interesting if it did come to that.

....

The above two points aren't to suggest that energy's the only issue facing government. It's just a comment on something I know about and which does lead to government essentially having its hands tied and being backed into a corner over a potentially highly contentious issue.

There are also other very definite issues within the energy sector, most notably oil prices and the effect that has on consumers plus the risk of a disorderly exit of coal-fired generation prior to alternatives actually being built. What happens there is somewhat harder to predict although the coal one ultimately is fixable with money if it comes to that, deals can be done to bring about an orderly exit rather than a chaotic one, although that brings more politics with it of course.

Some pain there politically I expect. Government's hands are substantially tied by the situation and the Coalition picked a good time to exit the stage just as it's about to go boom.

Noting that none of that's to suggest I'm in any way opposing renewables and so on, indeed I'm very sure that a fully renewable electricity supply can be done and that an orderly phase out of gas is also doable. The issue however is about time or rather the lack of it. It's about the near future and keeping society functioning, not the long term where many more options do exist.

The one certainty though is the issue will be settled. It's game over for arguing about it. The can simply cannot be kicked even once more.

 

[wayneL]

The market is fairly nonplussed with the result. Sure it's up this morning, but in line with overseas index futures.

Even coal has shrugged it off.

 

[sptrawler]

The market is fairly nonplussed with the result. Sure it's up this morning, but in line with overseas index futures.

Even coal has shrugged it off.

From what @Smurf1976 explained it will be self resolving, the Greens/Teals and probably a major sector of labor want no further gas exploration, therefore in the next couple of winters two things are likely to happen over East IMO, domestic heating gas prices will skyrocket and the cost of electricity will skyrocket, people need heat in winter.
So what I mean by it will be self resolving is, the Greens will soften their stance, or people will pay a hell of a lot more for their energy, if that happens the next election will be a reversal. Wash, rinse, repeat.

 

[moXJO]

The market is fairly nonplussed with the result. Sure it's up this morning, but in line with overseas index futures.

Even coal has shrugged it off.

Probably already priced in.
Plus we don't have a huge amount of detail on what's going to happen.

 

[IFocus]

From what @Smurf1976 explained it will be self resolving, the Greens/Teals and probably a major sector of labor want no further gas exploration, therefore in the next couple of winters two things are likely to happen over East IMO, domestic heating gas prices will skyrocket and the cost of electricity will skyrocket, people need heat in winter.
So what I mean by it will be self resolving is, the Greens will soften their stance, or people will pay a hell of a lot more for their energy, if that happens the next election will be a reversal. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Isn't the immediate problem for the East Coast (gas) simply supply due to the lack of policy allowing enough gas for domestic use?

 

[sptrawler]

Isn't the immediate problem for the East Coast (gas) simply supply due to the lack of policy allowing enough gas for domestic use?

I'm not sure on that issue, I have heard of it, but I've never bothered looking into the intricacies. Having said that I really can't see labor/Greens and Teals pushing for a larger gas allocation, it kind of flies in the face of what they represented to the electorate.

I was mainly alluding to what @Smurf1976 said regarding currently available gas.
Quote:
As the Gippsland Basin fields dry up and production rates drop, and a major field is indeed expected to cease production next financial year, maximum production rate is dropping off even with new (smaller) developments proceeding and would outright plunge in a "no new gas" scenario.

Even with that new investment we're still looking at a pretty major supply drop for 2023 and an almost 50% drop by 2026 from the Longford plant, by far the largest supply source, with declines elsewhere as well.


If there is plenty of gas available, all the Government will just have to do is enact some sort of emergency policy, that may be a problem when there is a big push to actually stop the use of gas completely, otherwise the push to more renewables will have to increase markedly.
Either way one would expect the cost of energy to increase.
The amount of renewables needed to mitigate the loss of coal generation is quite considerable, add to that changing domestic heating from gas to electricity, would actually crank the issue up several notches.
But as we are in W.A it really isn't an issue for us, but it does sound as though there is an issue brewing, it will be interesting watching from afar.

 

[sptrawler]

Further to the above post and the East coast gas issue, it sounds like the Labor/Green/Teal members will have to hit the ground running.
Maybe a subsidy to convert to renewables?
The real issue is what I have highlighted at the end of the post, it is the issue that is going to cause the most angst between the Greens and Labor IMO, is it manufacturing jobs or reduced gas usage and how to do it, that is the question.
It certainly hasn't taken long for the issue to brew.

Rising prices force sudden closure of a major NSW gas wholesaler​

By Nick Toscano​

Soaring gas prices across Australia’s east coast have forced the sudden closure of gas wholesaler Weston Energy, which supplies energy to 400 companies and government agencies.
NSW-based Weston Energy on Monday ceased gas-trading operations immediately after becoming no longer able to finance cash-flow requirements. Wholesale gas prices have risen 180 per cent since April and almost tripled since the start of the year, putting the company in an “untenable position”.
“The fact that Australia is the world’s largest exporter of coal and gas and yet, our domestic prices are at unprecedented high levels, highlights real policy failure,” Weston managing director Garbis Simonian said.

“Rapidly rising energy prices have put hundreds of Australian businesses, and thousands of jobs at risk.”

Weston, which had supplied seven per cent of the east coast’s commercial and industrial market, said it was working with the Australian Energy Market Operator, the Australian Energy Regulator and the Essential Services Commission to ensure customers had a “smooth transition” to new suppliers.

Wholesale prices for coal and gas have surged this year following the breakdowns or maintenance shutdowns of several coal-fired power generation units across the east coast electricity grid and intensifying global competition for fossil fuels because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Spot gas prices, which traded under $10 a gigajoule for most of last year, have been trading above $30 a gigajoule for several weeks.

Most gas in Australia is supplied on long-term contracts, rather than the spot market, meaning the steep price rises will not affect the majority of gas buyers such as big manufacturers that rely on the fuel for energy or in processing. However, gas suppliers say small to medium-sized manufacturers often rely on the spot market and have been hard-hit.

Aditya Jhunjhunwala, director of NSW-based manufacturer Causmag, which buys gas on the spot market, said prices as high as $45 a gigajoule two weeks ago had resulted in “nearly a week’s worth of gas expenses in a single day”.
“We cannot operate our factory at such cost,” he said.

 

[Smurf1976]

Further to the above post and the East coast gas issue

The inherent nature of gas fields is that you have to keep running in order to stand still. Drill a well, put it into production, gas flows but in due course pressure drops and the flow diminishes. Either keep drilling or total production falls away rather rapidly.

With basically no spare capacity as it is that means any thought of a "no new gas" approach requires an almost immediate large scale move away from using it. That doesn't just mean industry but it also means households and small business, indeed in Victoria's case residential accounts for the majority of peak day gas demand so that's where the focus needs to be.

Bringing gas from Queensland doesn't get around that. It still requires ongoing drilling, it still needs things built that some are opposed to.

Politically, this could get interesting if the Teals or Greens want to force it (and politics is my point in mentioning it).

On the physical side, I'll avoid derailing this thread and make some comment about the numbers and so on in another thread.

 

[sptrawler]

The inherent nature of gas fields is that you have to keep running in order to stand still. Drill a well, put it into production, gas flows but in due course pressure drops and the flow diminishes. Either keep drilling or total production falls away rather rapidly.

With basically no spare capacity as it is that means any thought of a "no new gas" approach requires an almost immediate large scale move away from using it. That doesn't just mean industry but it also means households and small business, indeed in Victoria's case residential accounts for the majority of peak day gas demand so that's where the focus needs to be.

Bringing gas from Queensland doesn't get around that. It still requires ongoing drilling, it still needs things built that some are opposed to.

Politically, this could get interesting if the Teals or Greens want to force it (and politics is my point in mentioning it).

On the physical side, I'll avoid derailing this thread and make some comment about the numbers and so on in another thread.

Absolutely spot on, there is a huge difference between promising something with no knowledge of the outcome and delivering on that promise, when you become aware of the outcomes.
A bit like those who make learned comments on the forum, without the learned bit. ?
I'm looking forward to the Labor/Greens hard stance on fossil fuel, with baited breath, I think it will be a 10 out of 10 for backflips with a degree of difficulty of 10.

 

[basilio]

The inherent nature of gas fields is that you have to keep running in order to stand still. Drill a well, put it into production, gas flows but in due course pressure drops and the flow diminishes. Either keep drilling or total production falls away rather rapidly.

With basically no spare capacity as it is that means any thought of a "no new gas" approach requires an almost immediate large scale move away from using it. That doesn't just mean industry but it also means households and small business, indeed in Victoria's case residential accounts for the majority of peak day gas demand so that's where the focus needs to be.

Bringing gas from Queensland doesn't get around that. It still requires ongoing drilling, it still needs things built that some are opposed to.

Politically, this could get interesting if the Teals or Greens want to force it (and politics is my point in mentioning it).

On the physical side, I'll avoid derailing this thread and make some comment about the numbers and so on in another thread.

Absolutely no getting away from gas as an essential part of our current domestic/industrial energy needs. Greens and Labour would be dead meat if they don't recognise that reality.

So the issue is moving ASAP to minimum gas usage through electrification in the longer term but at the same time ensuring sufficient gas supplies at reasonable prices for short/medium term use. How does that happen ? Good question ....

But IMO this doesn't mean we need to develop vast new gas fields largely for export or not move very quickly to renewable energy power production.

 

[wayneL]

Absolutely no getting away from gas as an essential part of our current domestic/industrial energy needs. Greens and Labour would be dead meat if they don't recognise that reality.

So the issue is moving ASAP to minimum gas usage through electrification in the longer term but at the same time ensuring sufficient gas supplies at reasonable prices for short/medium term use. How does that happen ? Good question ....

But IMO this doesn't mean we need to develop vast new gas fields largely for export or not move very quickly to renewable energy power production.

The question is how quickly can we move to renewables and some sort of baseload replacement, whether that be by nuclear or battery.

Battery storage is not viable on the grand scale in the short/medium term, so that leaves nuclear which does not seem to be palatable to greens/teals.

 

[basilio]

The question is how quickly can we move to renewables and some sort of baseload replacement, whether that be by nuclear or battery.

Battery storage is not viable on the grand scale in the short/medium term, so that leaves nuclear which does not seem to be palatable to greens/teals.

?? Nuclear is not going to be viable or even available in the next 10 years.
But pumped hydro, mass car/community/industry batteries could be. And there are others.
It is unlikely there will be a single solution.
One of the ambitious big ideas is mass solar and wind power and turning the excess into Hydrogen for use through fuellcells or conventional generators

Energy Storage Solution - an overview | ScienceDirect Topics

www.sciencedirect.com

 

[Telamelo]

So the "climate bill" got passed through parliament and is now legislation/law to reduce emissions by at least 43% by 2030 & to pursue a net zero target by 2050

Climate bill passes parliament, making 43 per cent reduction target law

The federal government's landmark climate bill passes parliament with the help of the Greens, Jacqui Lambie Network and David Pocock.

www.abc.net.au

 

[wayneL]

So the "climate bill" got passed through parliament and is now legislation/law to reduce emissions by at least 43% by 2030 & to pursue a net zero target by 2050

Climate bill passes parliament, making 43 per cent reduction target law

The federal government's landmark climate bill passes parliament with the help of the Greens, Jacqui Lambie Network and David Pocock.

www.abc.net.au

It's acqueer thing that Australia's aspiration is to join the third world.

 

[SirRumpole]

But IMO this doesn't mean we need to develop vast new gas fields largely for export or not move very quickly to renewable energy power production.

Gas fields are a source of revenue that we can use to build a greener energy grid, as long as a proper taxation regime allows collection of a fair share of the proceeds and shuts the door on tax avoidance schemes like transfer pricing that has enable the gas companies to avoid billions in tax payments.