Imminent and severe market correction

[Kauri]

a bit more remorse??

Drake has a lot of people jumping ship..
Irish banks are looking for a leprachaun..
Countrywide downgraded but still on positive watch??..
Economists predict rate drops in Aus in Sept....
Iceland bank feeling the cold...
Impasse over BOJ governor not sending a good message to markets..
BOC says expect more writedowns...
ING suspends a couple of funds..
and GW says he absolutely wants a stronger dollar, and a big easter egg, and more people to understand him, and.....
Sources.. WSJ.. FT.. Australian.. Nikkei.. NZ Herald...
Cheers
............Kauri

 

[sassa]

A plethora of short covering in the 3.5% rise on Tuesday.Traders decide to take profits today(the old dictum works-"Sell on the rally").The major banks begin reporting next week.Retail sale figures and jobless claims out tonight.Oil to $110 a barrel.Where's the good news coming from?
Treasurys are now called trashuries in the good old US of A.
And here's a link to a graph of the Bloomberg investigation which shows that 74 of the 80 AAA bonds in the ABX Index fail tests for investment grade.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=iQUy2GaasArs
This begs the question.How is anyone supposed to know if a given institution is solvent or not if the debt they are holding is rated well above its actual credit quality?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Speaking of Irish banks.....and wider implications for the EU's continued existence.......

The Irish banking system faces acute strains and may require a phase of temporary nationalisation as the property slump leads to a wave of defaults, according to a leading Irish economist.

Temporary nationalisation..... is that like only for a few years or sumfing?

The establishment has pretended it's business as usual. But the mood is now changing. The Irish Independent warned this week that the country is sliding into a serious slump.

"Look at all the signs: every single one is screaming that the economy is in big, big trouble. Housing market dead, new car sales dead, consumer confidence is dead, record job losses, exporters being killed off by a strong euro, fuel prices spike, housing repossessions increase," it said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/11/cnirish111.xml

The strong Euro......the second last alternative to the green back.....what happens when no one wants that either?

 

[Kauri]

Some interesting reading to wile away the day...
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[sassa]

Some interesting reading to wile away the day...
Cheers
...........Kauri

Too right Kauri.The Bear Stearns rumoured troubles have been circling on some American blog sites for the last few days.Perhaps the pigeons are coming home to roost.

 

[Kauri]

Too right Kauri.The Bear Stearns rumoured troubles have been circling on some American blog sites for the last few days.Perhaps the pigeons are coming home to roost.

A Claytons bailout.. the one you have when you are not having one... explains the $200Bln panic attack...
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

The bourses have tested their lows, but that's not to say they won't test, or break them again




Can you explain what you mean please?

We are now approaching good times but you expect sideways movement for sometime?

The good times are more volatility , the ups , downs and trading ranges .

It's ........ marvellous . Banks ...... watch them get cheaper .

Been waiting for this little period in the market for weeks , I have a level below 5200 pegged out , we've seen the technical levels trashed on many stocks , now it's time to crumble the fundamental levels .

I would like to see more of a pullback like todays after yesterdays rally/covering .......... and I wouldn't discount 5100 on the 200 , that could open the door to 4800 and we'd be redoing the late 90's .

I'm yet to see the double digit growth semaphored by many funds , my bookwork says they are struggling to bring in 8-9% and they've spruiked the same waffle for the last decade .

The funny side is that now they complain that Hedge Funds are the ones distorting market information .................... ha ha ha . They'd best read the last ten years of ASX releases first there's some classics in there .

 

[Real1ty]

The good times are more volatility , the ups , downs and trading ranges .

It's ........ marvellous . Banks ...... watch them get cheaper .

Been waiting for this little period in the market for weeks , I have a level below 5200 pegged out , we've seen the technical levels trashed on many stocks , now it's time to crumble the fundamental levels .

I would like to see more of a pullback like todays after yesterdays rally/covering .......... and I wouldn't discount 5100 on the 200 , that could open the door to 4800 and we'd be redoing the late 90's .

I'm yet to see the double digit growth semaphored by many funds , my bookwork says they are struggling to bring in 8-9% and they've spruiked the same waffle for the last decade .

The funny side is that now they complain that Hedge Funds are the ones distorting market information .................... ha ha ha . They'd best read the last ten years of ASX releases first there's some classics in there .

Thanks for clearing that up, as i couldn't work out what you were saying.

Pretty much agree with all of the above and the further it drops for me, the better atm.

Apparantly, we were going to get a "major correction" and it was a "no brainer"

 

[Real1ty]

 

[sassa]

What do fellow members think of this statement?


As we reached the nadir of sentiment, its worth to remind to our fellow investors(happily shorting the markets) that we reached historically record sentiment levels comparable to (or even worse in some indicators) Feb 01, Sept 01, or March 03. The short covering alone will produce a powerful pop in equities worldwide. The effect could be short lived but very powerful nevertheless.[/COLOR]

 

[Uncle Festivus]

What do fellow members think of this statement?


As we reached the nadir of sentiment, its worth to remind to our fellow investors(happily shorting the markets) that we reached historically record sentiment levels comparable to (or even worse in some indicators) Feb 01, Sept 01, or March 03. The short covering alone will produce a powerful pop in equities worldwide. The effect could be short lived but very powerful nevertheless.[/COLOR]

If you were short 2 days ago and were not stopped out or margined then you must have deep pockets. If that's the best they can do for a short covering rally then it's failed.

_______________________________

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Carlyle Capital, the bond fund affiliated with private equity firm The Carlyle Group, is on the verge of collapse after failing to agree a new financing deal with lenders.

The fund said late Wednesday that it expects lenders will soon take possession of "substantially all" its remaining assets after it was unable to meet surging margin calls on its portfolio of residential-mortgage-backed securities.

So far, Carlyle said it's defaulted on $16.6 billion of its debt and its remaining borrowing is expected to go into default soon.


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/carlyle-capital-verge-collapse-talks/story.aspx?guid=%7B16193889%2D7248%2D4C9E%2DAE91%2D7D6D61C6EB80%7D

 

[Kauri]

That veritable icon of modern economic assessment, S&P, while warning of more writedowns (making $285Mln.total) says that the end of the writedowns is in sight. So up spikes the US markets, yen et al..
Meantime a Norwegian hedgie seems set to be clipped.. along with all the others.. I wonder what affect selling out the assets of distressed funds en masse will do to the various markets...
It seems, to me, that a major bankruptcy of a financial insto .. or even maybe a Plaza accord.. is needed to get the seized financial system cranking again.. I thunk...
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

That veritable icon of modern economic assessment, S&P, while warning of more writedowns (making $285Mln.total) says that the end of the writedowns is in sight. So up spikes the US markets, yen et al..
Meantime a Norwegian hedgie seems set to be clipped.. along with all the others.. I wonder what affect selling out the assets of distressed funds en masse will do to the various markets...
It seems, to me, that a major bankruptcy of a financial insto .. or even maybe a Plaza accord.. is needed to get the seized financial system cranking again.. I thunk...
Cheers
.........Kauri

Well, that didn't quite get the market back to square so... the modern master of ratings now offers another gem to the "re-euphoriated" punters...
S&P states that it has affirmed ratings on 504 ABS ratings and removed them from CreditWatch negative. The insured US ABS classes are linked to Ambac..
Now if that doesn't do the job there is always the promise of a free easter egg with every long contract... but I think that is their ace-in-the-hole... they don't want to play it unless it is really necessary... :bunny:
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[chops_a_must]

Well, that didn't quite get the market back to square so... the modern master of ratings now offers another gem to the "re-euphoriated" punters...
S&P states that it has affirmed ratings on 504 ABS ratings and removed them from CreditWatch negative. The insured US ABS classes are linked to Ambac..
Now if that doesn't do the job there is always the promise of a free easter egg with every long contract... but I think that is their ace-in-the-hole... they don't want to play it unless it is really necessary... :bunny:
Cheers
...........Kauri

I think this is what Paulson called "industry cooperatives".

Well... it looks like I'll be off to the Gulags tomorrow!

Ahahahaha!

And Rick Santelli aka God, said we might as well put a hammer and sickle on the flag.

I've been saying we should do that since I was 16!

But anyone with any understanding of Marxism must be having a not so quiet chuckle right about now. All of a sudden Marxists are the experts on economics! I might have to get out my Che shirt and start giving lectures.

The new communists have just been shorting capitalism. I wonder who is winning?

I just can't wait 'til GWB's next report on the market. Surely can't beat his last one:

"Markets are a place where people buy and sell goods.
Money may be exchanged, or goods may be bartered for.
Sometimes the villagers have a feast after a day at the market.
The end."

Very good George. A+

What an age we live in...

 

[wayneL]

"re-euphoriated" punters...

...Now if that doesn't do the job there is always the promise of a free easter egg with every long contract... but I think that is their ace-in-the-hole... they don't want to play it unless it is really necessary... :bunny:
Cheers
...........Kauri

&

 

[Kauri]

Now if that doesn't do the job there is always the promise of a free easter egg with every long contract... but I think that is their ace-in-the-hole... they don't want to play it unless it is really necessary... :bunny:
Cheers
...........Kauri

Well, ye Gods and little fishes... just had a word to my budgie... he just had a word with a hooting owl... they reckon that GW can't get anyone to take counter-party risk on a loan for the eggs, even Bears won't play ball... so the punters euphoria is tipped to fade by NY PM unless Uncle Ben bails him out....
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Well, ye Gods and little fishes... just had a word to my budgie... he just had a word with a hooting owl... they reckon that GW can't get anyone to take counter-party risk on a loan for the eggs, even Bears won't play ball... so the punters euphoria is tipped to fade by NY PM unless Uncle Ben bails him out....
Cheers
..........Kauri

There you go... good ole GW..he's tipped to announce a package of ^^@** tomorrow night at a speech for the Economics Club of New York, helping the re-packaging of sub-prime loans, and further increasing government agencies warehousing loans. .. Pity that young Johnny isn't still running the country... he'd be in their with his eyebrows pinned back begging to take some sub-prime...
Now ..the bag is empty... the S+P had better rally or GW will get angry...
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Sean K]

There you go... good ole GW..he's tipped to announce a package of ^^@** tomorrow night at a speech for the Economics Club of New York, helping the re-packaging of sub-prime loans, and further increasing government agencies warehousing loans. .. Pity that young Johnny isn't still running the country... he'd be in their with his eyebrows pinned back begging to take some sub-prime...
Now ..the bag is empty... the S+P had better rally or GW will get angry...
Cheers
...........Kauri

LOL Eyebrows pinned back.....

Not sure about the empty bad though. Zimbabwe keep printing it....

 

[Aussiejeff]

Of course, when the Men In Black of the vaunted S&P spake, the Wise Worlde doth listen...

"All's well, Sleep Tight, Nighty Night....."

 

[sassa]

Time for a laugh??

"Now markets, consisting of people, pay varying amounts of attention to the duly anointed soothsayers of our materialist society. The problem with soothsaying as a vocation, of course, is that it is a tricky business indeed. Consequently, soothsayers are prone, for reasons of occupational safety, to follow the path traditionally trod by the priestesses of the Oracle of Delphi, the Roman priests who read ox entrails to predict the future, and the Witch of Endor, who claimed to be able to "summon spirits from the vasty deep," but, as MacBeth noted: "Aye, but the question is, will they come?"

Now people being people, and markets being markets, all search for clues, predictions, trends, prognostications which, it is devoutly hoped, will provide an early -- and financially serviceable -- glimpse into the future. Inevitably, people look to the soothsayers, beginning with the high priests of soothsaying, the FED, and trickling down to the class B, C, and D soothsayers residing on Wall Street, the big cities, your hometown, or on the internet.

This chronic addiction to soothsayers, and the eagerness with which not only the Great Unwashed, but even the SPANKING CLEAN will buy their goods, sets the markets up for THE INEVITABLE DISAPPOINTMENT when the prophecies fail to materialize. Indeed, all too often, it seems like the counter-prophecies (to coin a phrase) seem to emerge triumphant. The more universal, and the more intense, the prophetic wisdom, the more severely negative the market reaction when it proves false.

This endlessly recurring phenomenon is, we believe, at least partly responsible for the threatening severity of current and perhaps forthcoming financial market punishment for those who have been sufficiently witless as to conform their behavior to the WORD OF THE SECULAR PROPHETS."
http://www.money-sage.com/content/markets-and-expectations