Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Imminent and severe market correction

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Hurry up and crash, should be any day now;)

Cash is King in May, just look at the statistics...the month of May is almost always a filthy month.

They don't call is Mayday for nothing...thats the day you make contact with your managed funds and switch to the cash option. Mine hit the cash option on the 2nd of May, very happy with my choice, just waiting now, very patiently!

MAYDAY ALERT, MAYDAY ALERT...THE MARKET IS READY TO CRASH
 
Stop_the_clock said:
Hurry up and crash, should be any day now;)

Cash is King in May, just look at the statistics...the month of May is almost always a filthy month.

They don't call is Mayday for nothing...thats the day you make contact with your managed funds and switch to the cash option. Mine hit the cash option on the 2nd of May, very happy with my choice, just waiting now, very patiently!

MAYDAY ALERT, MAYDAY ALERT...THE MARKET IS READY TO CRASH
Click to expand...

The May crash was on Tuesday, it's all up hill from here...
 
Stop_the_clock said:
Hurry up and crash, should be any day now;)

Cash is King in May, just look at the statistics...the month of May is almost always a filthy month.

They don't call is Mayday for nothing...thats the day you make contact with your managed funds and switch to the cash option. Mine hit the cash option on the 2nd of May, very happy with my choice, just waiting now, very patiently!

MAYDAY ALERT, MAYDAY ALERT...THE MARKET IS READY TO CRASH
Click to expand...

stop the clock, there are probably so many people like you waiting for a crash you have taken all the hot money out of the market already! thanks sideliners for preventing a devastating crash. there would already be so much money on sidelines waiting to get in market gets bought up on any dips.

over last couple months i have been moving most of my portfolio into long term stocks. holding uranium, iron ore and zinc stocks. and BTW i still have some cash aside for a pending correction.

i also think stop the clock that you have been cashing out since around xmas if i can remember correctly, you may have missed some good runs.
 
I've exited all my blue chips (and converted to cash for now), but continue to "play" with some speccies. In the last little hiccup most of my speccies barely moved, so I'm a little more confident to hold them if the market does turn south.

I'd love to get into property but the market in Melbourne is far too hot! Even turning up for property inspections is now a waste of time, they're typically sold prior to auction or for stupidly high prices.

Looks like cash is king for a bit.

m.
 
Freeballinginawetsuit said:
Its not exactly 'rocket science' stating it after the fact now is it UF, and that punters will be locking in profits at some point.:rolleyes:
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indeed
hopefully a picture is worth 100 characters ;)
caption reads "It's time we had a reality check gentlemen, we 're not exactly rocket scientists"
 

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marklar said:
I've exited all my blue chips (and converted to cash for now), but continue to "play" with some speccies. In the last little hiccup most of my speccies barely moved, so I'm a little more confident to hold them if the market does turn south.
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Wouldn't the specks be the last ones you would want to be holding in any pullback..............or for the matter any recent entries in fundamental stocks at the top of the cycle :confused:
 
Corrections - those things that everyone hears about that were due to happen - (note past tense ;))

reminds me, the best bet at the craps table in the casino is on the "Don't Pass" line - effectively betting against the dice - and against all the other punters . It takes a brave person to bet there. No one shouts you a drink when you win for instance lol.
But that said, it is still the best bet :2twocents :eek:
 
2020hindsight said:
Corrections - those things that everyone hears about that were due to happen - (note past tense ;))

reminds me, the best bet at the craps table in the casino is on the "Don't Pass" line - effectively betting against the dice - and against all the other punters . It takes a brave person to bet there. No one shouts you a drink when you win for instance lol.
But that said, it is still the best bet :2twocents :eek:
Click to expand...

Seems like a lot of 'bets' entered the market since March's pullback, and against the table odds.............are you serious!.

Whats youre 'bet' when on mass they exit 20/20?.................presuming at some point in time youre entry/exit signal shines
 
marklar said:
I've exited all my blue chips (and converted to cash for now), but continue to "play" with some speccies. In the last little hiccup most of my speccies barely moved, so I'm a little more confident to hold them if the market does turn south.

I'd love to get into property but the market in Melbourne is far too hot! Even turning up for property inspections is now a waste of time, they're typically sold prior to auction or for stupidly high prices.

Looks like cash is king for a bit.

m.
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If you are talking about genuine blue chips, why would you have exited them at this stage, or for that matter, at all?

I've held blue chips through countless corrections. They recover, and go on to new highs, so why would you incur unnecessary brokerage and complicate your tax situation?

If you've made money out of speccies, those would be what I'd be selling if you really have a clear basis for expecting a correction.
 
Stop_the_clock said:
Hurry up and crash, should be any day now;)

Cash is King in May, just look at the statistics...the month of May is almost always a filthy month.

They don't call is Mayday for nothing...thats the day you make contact with your managed funds and switch to the cash option. Mine hit the cash option on the 2nd of May, very happy with my choice, just waiting now, very patiently!

MAYDAY ALERT, MAYDAY ALERT...THE MARKET IS READY TO CRASH
Click to expand...
So you want the market to crash simply to reinforce and rationalise your own decision. As has already been pointed out, you have missed out on some excellent profits by moving to cash as early as you have.

Do what you like. I simply don't care.
But don't wish a crash for everyone else just to justify your own choices.
There are many inexperienced investors out there who would not have the fortitude to cope with a severe correction and who would quite unnecessarily sell, losing money.

Kris, you repeatedly expect other people to empathise with your situation, but as far as I can tell, you are quite devoid of empathy towards anyone else. Egocentricity is a largely unrewarding characteristic.
 
yes to call a crash you must have reasons and a time frame and why its going to be a crash or start a very severe correction and one which may be long lasting. Tonight a quick look at the futures saw gold up so knew straight away US markets were going to be up. CALL a TOP wednesday or thursday next week. What the DOW will get to 13650 give or take (1000 points) sorry one extra zero.
 
Freeballinginawetsuit said:
Seems like a lot of 'bets' entered the market since March's pullback, and against the table odds.............are you serious!.

Whats youre 'bet' when on mass they exit 20/20?.................presuming at some point in time youre entry/exit signal shines
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FBIAW. A few misunderstandings here .
I was just saying that stop the clock was making a bearish prediction, and getting a pasting for his troubles.

Personally I was fully committed to the market as of Wednesday (100% invested), then sold about 85% on Thursday, leaving a few bucks in YML and (rats) ERA (of all the stupid stocks to get stuck with - but it owes me bigtime lol ;)) (I should ve stuck with FMG lol)

I think we all were predicting a May correction were we not - maybe this year will be different. Just when you work out the pattern (or rather when Alan Kohler points it out to you) that "sell in May and walk away" makes historical sense - then that's the year you should have "BOUGHT in may " lol. Is it wise to bet on history repeating? Or is it just another "superstition" to deal with maybe?

In the end, it's all a gamble aint it, if not for you experts then it certainly is for me (hence the reference to the casino )

As for what's my bet on the best exit time? Pure guesswork / superstition.

PS Somewhat off thread , but I found this new word for "Fear of Friday the 13th" on google

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friday_the_13th The fear of Friday the 13th is called paraskave-deka-triaphobia (a word that is derived from the concatenation of the Greek words Παρασκευή, δεκατρείς, and φοβία, meaning Friday, thirteen, and phobia respectively; alternate spellings include paraskevodekatriaphobia or paraskevidekatriaphobia) or friggatriskaidekaphobia, and is a specialized form of triskaidekaphobia, a phobia (fear) of the number thirteen.
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Others include:- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/-phobia
Hexakosioihexekontahexaphobia — fear of the number 666.
Panphobia — fear of everything or constantly afraid without knowing what is causing it
Gerontophobia, fear of growing old, or a hatred of old people.

But in summary, you're right mate - I've made about 10% on my portfolio since March. Just that I'm guessing a correction is around the corner. (Just a guess ok ;)). If not, then "I've left a bit of money on the table for the next bloke ".

PS As for "correctionaphobia" - Some people get it, some don't
PS I dont bet "short" - not allowed to on SMSF's. So I just have to be cashed up if a correction happens - simple as that . I'm either on the market , or in the bank.

So currently I'm experiencing probably what will turn out to be a totally irrational "correctionaphobia"... and mainly in the bank.
but "beeraphobia"? nope , never experienced that one. :bier:
 
Hi 20/20,


FWIW, bearish talk this time around has more merit than last time :2twocents.

Agree that the last few months on the market have been surprising, certainly exceeded my modest forward view.

I dont own YML though :eek:
 
freeball,
I guess what really hurts me is to get in here after a mini-correction (lol) - and find all these expert traders who bet short, and they're congratulating each other lol - really pisses me off (and probably most of us in here who only invest "long"). But heck, they are cleverer that me, and they are entitled to celebrate. :(

If you ever play craps, especially in Nevada or some such, you'll find it's much like two-up, in that everyone is usually behind the dice-roller to do well. Yellin and hollerin and whoopin lol.

Very rarely does someone bet against the dice - and if he does, he doesn't say a word when he wins - if he does he gets a black eye, lol.

(But as I said back there, I think the casino advantage for the initial bet is about 1.41% for pass line, and about 1.40% for Dont Pass - so he wins a fraction/;smidgeon more often that the ones doing the whoopin and hollerin):)
Question then to ask is which one is happier lol.

PS I'm a beginner and I intentionally don't study my investments too much (leaving a fair bit to lady luck) - I'm working on the principle that I want to stretch the period when my "beginner's luck" applies as long as possible ;)

PS optimists might not be correct as often as pessimists, but they are allegedly a lot happier :2twocents
 
To pick a top and the start of a crash (or severe correction is a dream but others nightmare) The markets do what they want and when they want. The challange is to look at every possibility of a correction and see how severe or mild it is. Most people are complacement when a correction comes because the market go up afterwards.
The amount of investors on this site who are expecting a correction is small compared to the BULLS. But some of those are wiling to ride out certain stocks
(a) they think there stock will recover quickly
(B) it happened before and my stock is higher in a few weeks
(c) Uraniun price rises or stays the same all the time (what would happen to uranium stocks if the price dropped one week heaven forbid two in a row)
(d) everyone calls for a Crash and it does not happen like it has over and over again for the last XX years no one takes them seriously (one day they might be right)
(e) we have to watch China that where the correction will start.
(f) we a lemmings true/false

To the bulls good luck to The bears good luck
to those that think and know
we don't need any
 

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