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Imminent and severe market correction


http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5jsanM66tszKz1zFq0LOG4XvWS7zAD8U78EI00


And no rising house prices to cover the gap for wages actually declining in real terms, Credit Cards getting maxed , and another round of Interest rate cuts coming to make the masses of Amerika even worse off ....



Got to love how the prices for things you MUST have are shaply up (health,housing) , but the things you can easily live with out are down ( Cars, Computers) and they call it an offset !
 
A herd of what. I haven't heard it.

Rumours move markets... they are a good trading tool, if you have herd the rumour early on that is...

MarketWatch note reports that traders are blaming the stock market rally, not on the Beige Book but on yet another of the now ubiquitous rumors that the Fed will move to cut rates before the January 29-30 meeting.
Cheers
.........Kauri
 

Not really an answer... rather it poses more questions... from the SMH..

 
herd |hərd|
noun
a large group of animals, esp. hoofed mammals, that live, feed, or migrate together or are kept together as livestock : a herd of elephants | large farms with big dairy herds.
• derogatory a large group of people, typically with a shared characteristic : I dodged herds of joggers and cyclists | he is not of the common herd.
• as found in herd on the grapevine- A group of two-legged animals that feeds mostly on the juice of fermented grapes

verb [with adverbial of direction ]
move in a particular direction : [ trans. ] Nick herded me through the baggage claim and into his Jaguar | [ intrans. ] we all herded into a storage room.
• [ trans. ] keep or look after (livestock) : Hunter and Tripp herded sheep.
ORIGIN Old English heord, of Germanic origin; related to German Herde.
 
You've got me in one ...
Cheers :alcohol:
.........Kauri


 


I saw one story last night (not sure, think on Yahoo) where a reporter SPECULATED that the FED might move after Ben testifies before congress on Thursday.
 
Given that this rate cut is the most anticipated in history is it likely to have a huge effect on sentiment? If the Fed doesn't cut this week there will be no inter meeting cut as it would then be too close to the FOMC meeting date. Then let's say the go 50 bps on Jan 30, is the market really going to rally back to 14,000 on the DOW based on a rate cut that is more than fully priced in?
 

I agree that a 50bp cut is already priced in. The futures is already saying that the chance of a 50 points cut is 100%. However, if they go for 75, then there might be a bit of a rally. But for it to go back up to 14000, we'll need good news... a lot of good news.
 
Think it is a case of damned if they do damned if they dont-.5 is expected any more than that and the initial euphoria will soon wear off to "didnt realise we were in such a state" will also be dependant on the spiel that goes with the cut.Still dont think it will be enough but might allow some to exit and stand back but the bad news is constant whereas the cut is soon forgotten
 
I think it is time to start expecting something totally unexpected, out of left field. Maybe some political event...
 
What's a doom & gloom thread without more doom & gloom -

As it is increasingly looking that the US is already in a recession, half a point here and there is window dressing. I'm not sure if zero rates will do anything either, so deep is this secular debt contagion. This is going to the core of the fiat money and fractional banking system, and exposing the glaring anomalies of unrestrained debt issuance. The Fed has lost control, so interest rates as a weapon is like firing financial blanks, only satisfying the money shufflers on Wall St with an ephemeral 'fix'.

Japan, again, on the brink of deflation.

Japan's prime minister Yasuo Fukuda has pledged to intervene if necessary to prevent a disorderly plunge of the Tokyo bourse amid fears that the country may be sliding back into recession.
Euro countries real estate imminent implosion and consequent casualties.

Aus super redemptions exacerbating the slide here.

Left field events maybe

- General Motors finally goes into bankruptcy
- Citigroup ditto
- Homebuilders ditto
- an LTCM type bust with contagion into the real economy
- presidential candidate assassination
 

Nice Uncle - I cannot believe you have not added the bird flu pandemic to the list. So here it is...
- A global bird flu pandemic a la the 1918 Spanish flu wipes out millions.

Add the US attacks Iran, the arms race kicks off again, Turkey invades Kurdistan, etc etc

Yawn ad naseum. Yawning is off course the bodies way of coping with stress.

9 days red and counting...
 
not something I have herd as such... more something that I have red... AFP

Cheers
........Kauri



Sounds like the tier 2 piles are growing and the alpha is on the backburner at present . That would mean quite a few quantative analysts may be unemployed soon as well as a flock of long-short equity managers .


I'd rate that more as classified info than a rumour , who let the cat out of the bag there ..........
 

Have I ever told you about my Budgies... :nuts:
 
from WSJ (Wall Street Journal)

 
Looks to me US Indices are setting up for some sort of rally here. Not saying that this is the end of the correction, but it does look like the complettion of the last impulse(leg) down from my EW studies and TIME studies.

We have a contracting triangle wave in place in the last small consolidation before the market fell the last few days. Also very important, we have Time cycle point low due 18/01/08. (3 smaller degree cycle lows in a row = completion of next higher degree cycle), good probability these indices should move up tonight. Subsequently have taken long positions this afternoon. I have labelled this and abc down(green) for now, with a nesting
1-2,1-2,1-2 subdividing impulse as an alternate

Cheers
 

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a US investment house is reportedly spreading the rumourof a 50bp Fed Funds rate cut to 3.75% today. The are saying that a cut might be delivered between the 13:30GMT release of US inflation data and the 14:30GMT US stock market open.

That will move something either way , if they were to stick to the vanilla .25 the market will be quite upset , a few currencies will wobble too ..........

But , .50 basis points will certainly move the main currencies , stuff the USD , lets get USA on it's feet first .
 
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