Imminent and severe market correction

ithatheekret · 16 January 2008

The US was cutting back taxes just before it hit Iraq , this situation is so tight , I'm glad it's not my mess to clean up .

Stimulus other than taxation will stoke the flames and they can't really afford to drop taxes at a time when they have to make up for the war costs .

Bank of America is to sell it's brokerage wing ......... we could always pass the hat around and put in a bid

I did see profit in some reports for the banks , not that it helped .

ithatheekret · 16 January 2008

Kauri mentioned the Baltic Dry Index yesterday , the Chinese shippers are reflecting the sentiment in price today .

Cathay Financial , a Life Insurer still gaining though on the KLCI though .

Awful lot of unsigned articles showing up matched by the rumours brigade a la frenzy ......

Kauri · 16 January 2008

ithatheekret said:
Kauri mentioned the Baltic Dry Index yesterday , the Chinese shippers are reflecting the sentiment in price today .

Cathay Financial , a Life Insurer still gaining though on the KLCI though .

Awful lot of unsigned articles showing up matched by the rumours brigade a la frenzy ......

a liitle bit aboot the BDI...
Cheers
........Kauri

The shares of shipping companies have plummeted across the world on fears of a sharp economic slowdown as contagion from the US housing slump reaches Europe and Asia.
China's COSCO fell 9.4pc in Far Eastern trading. Pacific Basin was off 10pc, and China Shipping Container Line fell 8pc. The selling ricocheted through European bourses and Wall Street: Belships was down 17pc in Oslo, Diana Shipping was off 8.4pc in New York, and Goldenport fell 4pc in London.
This follows several days of sharp falls in London's Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which measures freight rates for bulk commodities, mostly iron ore, coal, and grains. The index has fallen by a third from record highs over the last two months. On Friday it suffered the biggest one-day fall since modern data began in 1985.
The index is a barometer of the world economy. Markets fear it may be warning that China's voracious demand for commodities is cooling.
Julian Jessop, an analyst at Capital Economics said: "There has been a lot of froth and the BDI may be suggesting the boom is coming to an end, but you need to be wary not to read too much into it."
The index can emit false signals. It responds to the ups and downs in spare shipping capacity, which follow their own distinctive rhythm.
Robin Bhar, a metals analyst at UBS, said the Baltic slide may be no more than a correction, reflecting a pause in bulk deliveries to China late last year. "We believe it will bottom out and stage a recovery in due course, underpinned by continued strength in bulk commodity markets.
"A further sharp fall in the freight index could signal recession. We recommend selling the rallies," he said.

ithatheekret · 16 January 2008

I'm wondering if there will be a flow on effect in iron ore and coals , iron ore just recieved a booster through a price hike again , very hard to play the field when looking at stocks in relation to the ore prices , when contracts are the bottom line on pricing ..........

I still have a positive outlook on the ores , but this is nasty for the shippers , could see a cut back in new ships now , just when the old fleets were past their useby dates .

It's about time the financials spat it all out so we can get over it !

Especially Citi .

PS.. volumes will be important for exchanges like the ASX etc. , no volumes no fun .......... no share price happiness .

Kauri · 16 January 2008

a liitle more on the BDI..

HK shipping stocks have been sinking today. China Cosco, Sinotrans Shipping and China Shipping Development are all down around 10%. The torpedoeing of freight co's matches up with the Titanic reruns of the Baltic Dry Index.
Happy sailing
................Kauri

Kauri · 16 January 2008

Japanese exporters must be ready to start calling for BOJ intervention soon (if they are not active in the market already), the strength of the yen will be hurting them, the more they hurt the more their stock prices suffer, hurting the Nikkei, the more that hurts the more the crosses strengthen the more the exporters hurt, the more the exporters hurt..... et al....
Cheers
.........Kauri

numbercruncher · 16 January 2008

hehe BOJ has only got .5pc to play with then moneys free, gotta love it, Uncle Sam going down same path too, whatta world huh

Kauri · 16 January 2008

numbercruncher said:
hehe BOJ has only got .5pc to play with then moneys free, gotta love it, Uncle Sam going down same path too, whatta world huh

yes, there's not enough room left to swing to dead cat, let alone move the rates.. I guess that only leaves supporting the $US in the market...
Cheers
........Kauri

lesm · 16 January 2008

bloggs_oz said:
The sky is falling. Could all lemmings please report to their brokers to part with their shares.

thank you.

Nah..Your standing upside down.

Just need to be able to trade both sides of the market and make the most of the opportunities.

bloggs_oz · 16 January 2008

lesm said:
Nah..Your standing upside down.

Just need to be able to trade both sides of the market and make the most of the opportunities.

You're right - the current market is a great environment to trade in. I'm actually short at the moment; I purchased put options about a week ago, and sold call options to cover my shares. It's great waking up every morning cheering when the market goes south!

I haven't been through a bear market before, but I'm looking forward to the opportunities that come up

Kauri · 16 January 2008

More grist for the mill...
Interesting...ECB marginal facility was touched up for E2.3Bln.. no-one owning up to it... but it was on the same day that Hypo Real Estate came up with a E390mln loss in CDO's...

Cheers
..........Kauri

numbercruncher · 16 January 2008

TOKYO (AP) -- The dollar sank to a 2 1/2- year low against the yen Wednesday in Asia as investors sold the greenback due to concerns over the U.S. economy and financial system.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/16/markets/dollar.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008011605

I love how the reporting language slowly morphs in severity as time gos by, good to see main stream reporting concerned for the US " financial System " because its clearly in a sad state of disrepair and has been for some time !

Kauri · 17 January 2008

RUMOUR

Herd on the grapevine...

a US investment house is reportedly spreading the rumourof a 50bp Fed Funds rate cut to 3.75% today. The are saying that a cut might be delivered between the 13:30GMT release of US inflation data and the 14:30GMT US stock market open.

Cheers
.........Kauri

Whiskers · 17 January 2008

U.S. Consumer Prices Rose 0.3% in December; Core Rate Up 0.2%

Traders anticipate the Fed will lower its benchmark rate by at least a half point this month, to 3.75 percent, and odds of bigger reductions have climbed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=amNPWva_2dDs&refer=economy

stockwhizben · 17 January 2008

where are the dow futures on the cnn money site gone? or is my computer broke
the dow futures havnt been working for me all night

numbercruncher · 17 January 2008

stockwhizben said:
where are the dow futures on the cnn money site gone? or is my computer broke
the dow futures havnt been working for me all night

Heres a link for you stock ! btw hope your luck changes soon

http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html

stockwhizben · 17 January 2008

thanks NC. and ur kind words
need some good luck - studying for a job interview for tomorrow too, not usually up so late hehe - trying to land a job at leighton. their shares also been hit lately huh. from mid $60 to high $40's. going thru the company history and all that, they are winning contracts left right and centre. no need for a sell off of leighton imo. their problem is too much work on the books

nioka · 17 January 2008

Kauri said:
RUMOUR
Herd on the grapevine...
.........Kauri

A herd of what. I haven't heard it.

Kauri · 17 January 2008

nioka said:
A herd of what. I haven't heard it.

If you haven't herd it then it must be a rumour... no??

Kauri · 17 January 2008

not something I have herd as such... more something that I have red... AFP

Cheers
........Kauri

The IMF Warned late Wednesday that the Subprime crisis might produce deeper problems than expected due to banks holding out on revealing all of their losses. "Some analytical work modeled on conservative assumptions suggests that potential losses may be higher and further capital injections are likely," Manmohan Singh and Mustafa Saiyid wrote in an IMF report. "Most banks in the United States have not yet marked their assets to genuine transaction prices," the report said. Recent moves by financial institutions to bring off-balance- sheet structures like CDOs on the balance sheet are not at explicit "transfer prices" and thus "may not be a full reflection of potential losses" the report went on to say.

Imminent and severe market correction

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