Imminent and severe market correction

Edwood · 14 January 2008

it was live just after 6pm Aus time. looks like dodgy data / trades - IB put a note out to say any fills on the below will be busted

ESH8 - executions above 14,220 and below 13,980
SPH8 - execution below 13,980
NQH8, NDH8 - executions below 19,060
ZDH8, YMH8, DDH8 - executions below 12,550
EMDH8 - executions below 79,350
NQM8 - executions below 1,922
ER2H8 - executions below 70,230

ithatheekret · 15 January 2008

Look in the sky , is it a bird , is it a plane ?

NO , it's SUPER BEN

Kauri · 15 January 2008

I hear that Japanese Mizuho Bank is going to put Y140 into Merrill....
Cheers
.........Kauri

numbercruncher · 15 January 2008

Interesting little read here ...

Economic Tsunami Is Upon Us

A simple truth, ignored for generations, is leading us to enslavement and privation. Wealth makes us free, and debt enslaves us. Debt-based currency puts you in debt without your consent and prevents your escape from the consequences. In answer to an editorial by Rob Kall.

::::::::

As long as you have the Federal Reserve System operating with a monopoly on the creation of debt-based money out of thin air, a few things are inevitable:

1. The system requires continued growth in order to remain viable, ever increasing as interest on the fake money is compounded. When the Fed says their aim is 'price stability', that means they will inflate the currency at the same rate as economic growth. This means that they rob the population of all increases in productivity, because prices should fall when productivity rises, not stay 'stable'. But stable prices are impossible when all currency is borrowed into existence because the interest to repay it must be borrowed, too, and mathematically you will reach a point where the interest and borrowing must accelerate out of control.

...... Article continues at link ......

http://www.opednews.com/maxwrite/diarypage.php?did=5601

Kauri · 15 January 2008

Just coming out now...I think...

C's 4th quarter write downs are USD$ 18 Bln (and the good spin...it's before tax ) .. so expect the Dow to lift.. it's better than expected..
Cheers
...........Kauri

Gundini · 15 January 2008

Kauri said:
Just coming out now...I think...

C's 4th quarter write downs are USD$ 18 Bln (and the good spin...it's before tax ) .. so expect the Dow to lift.. it's better than expected..
Cheers
...........Kauri

Lift for a short term only....

But fundimentals say, trouble is here to stay, so move to higher water, and wait...

chops_a_must · 15 January 2008

Kauri said:
Just coming out now...I think...

C's 4th quarter write downs are USD$ 18 Bln (and the good spin...it's before tax ) .. so expect the Dow to lift.. it's better than expected..
Cheers
...........Kauri

The write downs appear to be on the more positive end.

Futures are yet to make up their minds. Still a long way to go before open, but it's going to be an interesting night. A sharp move in either direction is on the cards. Not prepared to touch it until it makes up its mind.

Kauri · 15 January 2008

Gundini said:
Lift for a short term omly....

But fundimentals say, trouble is here to stay, so move to higher water, and wait...

I spent a lot of time in the desert developing my dry sense of humour.
Cheers
.........Kauri

chops_a_must · 15 January 2008

Kauri said:
I spent a lot of time in the desert developing my dry sense of humour.
Cheers
.........Kauri

And there it should have stayed... :

>Apocalypto< · 15 January 2008

Kauri said:
I spent a lot of time in the desert developing my dry sense of humour.
Cheers
.........Kauri

H hA HA HA HA

that is very good Kauri!

lesm · 15 January 2008

The US PPI and Retail Sales figures are scheduled to be released at 12:30am AEST, will see what the reaction is.

Entries below show the forecast and previous figures respectively.

Wed
Jan 16

12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 1.2%
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 1.8%
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.2% 3.2%
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4%
12:30am USD Empire State Business Conditions Index 10.1 10.3

>Apocalypto< · 15 January 2008

chops_a_must said:
The write downs appear to be on the more positive end.

Futures are yet to make up their minds. Still a long way to go before open, but it's going to be an interesting night. A sharp move in either direction is on the cards. Not prepared to touch it until it makes up its mind.

i am going to pull a Nick Leeson and bet it all on a quiet night

Kauri · 16 January 2008

lesm said:
The US PPI and Retail Sales figures are scheduled to be released at 12:30am AEST, will see what the reaction is.

Entries below show the forecast and previous figures respectively.
Jan 16

12:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 1.2%
12:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.0% 1.8%
12:30am USD PPI m/m 0.2% 3.2%
12:30am USD Core PPI m/m 0.2% 0.4%
12:30am USD Empire State Business Conditions Index 10.1 10.3

Hi lesm
I think that the main market mover (1330GMT) will be Retail sales... and that it will come in closer to (minus)-0.5% and core at (minus) -0.1% to (minus)-0.2%... now that should get the market moving..
Cheers
........Kauri

chops_a_must · 16 January 2008

chops_a_must said:
The write downs appear to be on the more positive end.

Futures are yet to make up their minds. Still a long way to go before open, but it's going to be an interesting night. A sharp move in either direction is on the cards. Not prepared to touch it until it makes up its mind.

Nope.

Deeper it looks like total write downs are in the worse range. Surprise, surprise. But what looks more concerning is the massive drop in revenue, and I'd say that's what's scaring the futures lower. I thought the drop in revenue/ earnings per share was lower than expected, but threw it out as my error. Turns out losses per share were about twice as bad as consensus...

Positive retail sales aren't going to help, but any negative announcement will tank it further I reckon...

ithatheekret · 16 January 2008

I think most analysts were looking for softer RPI data from the UK , instead it matched Nov's 06 , Cables gone HUH ! I think a sell off was expected but this might unsettle the BoE more than Cable .

It really show's that the data is baffling some though , could be doing exactly as planned .............

lesm · 16 January 2008

Some recent headlines via Reuters.
It appears that Citigroup wrote off $18bln.

TOP STORIES
> Citigroup raising $14.5 bln, cuts divi, posts loss[nN15468107]
> German investor morale hits lowest since Jan 1993 [nL15378243]
> No let-up in European inflation in December [nL15131412]
> Merrill to issue $6.6 billion in preferred shares [nT370724]
> German 2007 growth buoyed by trade, investment [nL15671246]
> Bank earnings, economy worry investors [nL15665310]
> Oil eases to $94, US economy in focus [nSP16038]
> Bush presses Saudi Arabia to help tame oil price [nN15451903]
> Japan may miss long-term fiscal target-govt report [nT334096]
> German wiseman warns against excessive pay rises [nL15501137]
> BOJ's Fukui says Japan economic growth slowing [nT350213]
> Citi writes off $18 bln, Merrill gets capital [nL1565536]
> Stock futures extend losses, Citigroup turns lower[nN15475720]

lesm · 16 January 2008

Kauri said:
Hi lesm
I think that the main market mover (1330GMT) will be Retail sales... and that it will come in closer to (minus)-0.5% and core at (minus) -0.1% to (minus)-0.2%... now that should get the market moving..
Cheers
........Kauri

Hi Kauri,

You weren't far off the mark -0.4% and -0.4% respectively.

Cheers

numbercruncher · 16 January 2008

Retail sales surprisingly weak in December
Retail sales fell 0.4%, worse than forecast; excluding automobile purchases, sales also slipped 0.4 %

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Year-end holiday shopping hit the skids in December after cash-strapped consumers curtailed their spending, forcing sales at U.S. chain stores to drop worse than expected, according to a government report Tuesday.

The U.S. Commerce Department said total sales fell 0.4 percent last month, up from a revised 1 percent gain in November. November sales were originally reported to have risen 1.2 percent

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/15/news/economy/dec_retailsales/index.htm

Yes thats certain to get the consumer economy edgy !

ithatheekret · 16 January 2008

Just got this off a new Deutsche Bank platform , they've downgraded Nvidia , sort of a wow , already lost around $10 from it's highs , I'll be waiting for the markets reaction to that .

numbercruncher · 16 January 2008

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Wholesale inflation shot up in 2007 by the largest amount in 26 years even though falling gasoline costs allowed price pressures to moderate in December.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/15/news/economy/bc.economy.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008011509

Oh boy the pieces keep falling into place.

Imminent and severe market correction

Edwood

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