Comrades , Hach does have a point and we must be objective and open minded . Logic say it is right , but time is the issue .
I'm sure we can all agree that the charts posted are linear , I took note of that 5800 , because some will remember it was one of the levels I mentioned during my 6200 test mutterings , some will also note from the ASX chart that it contains the other levels I mentioned , but you will notice the bottom of the pennant is pointing to 5800 , pray we don't get there , personally I think we'll could but , regard 6100 and 5940 as the bottoming areas . We are headed up , but it will take time for confidence to come back , even for top grade stocks that aren't tangled in the US mess . I have a lower area of 5300-5400 , but these would take a total cut back in exports . That ain't going to happen , we are going to sneeze and puke due to snuggling up to the US , but London is going to cop it worse than we will .
I also have a view that a sneaky French provincial old fox , is going to have the last laugh , when it comes to monetary policy in M2 and M3 ..... and I don't mean the commo glamour boy at the French helm .
Abbey Cohen is right the Dow will go to 15000 , but only after the Dow has been reshuffled with the stocks that make it up and a bit longer time than we will have to wait for 7000 . I have an estimate ( note that as I have only got considered stocks as replacements on the Dow) on the Dow , with a peak of somewhere around 14700-14800 by 2010 . Most will also remember , I'm after cheap banks with solid security that can see it ride the stuff ups out , at present the only bank management I like is in Singapore and I've only found one there . The St. George here I believe made a sound call with the malls as security from Centro , they are in control there and St.s will recieve penalties on the loans , even if Centro manages decent refinancing or get a swag of malls dirt cheap . Some of the smaller banks in the US will get swallowed up by larger European banks or Aussie and US banks with enough cash with to expand after the writedowns , which I would expect to grow this quarter and the next .
Just to throw a spanner in the works , I've mentioned to friends who the only ones I offer advise to , they are professionals whose fields I use for free , so they get mine the for the same . I called shorting the market above 6300 as 6280 was the calculated peak with each stock attracting various premiums .
The premium is bade on projected earnings per share and projected organic growth , not relying on the same pile of money riding around a continent in circles which has zero growth rates , but for those who get to hold onto the biggest piles . This is one of the US problems , same cash revolving around , with a reliance on cheap 28 day money to turn a quick profit on if they can manage that .......
In conclusion , even the DH James Glassman who spruiked the Dow will go to 36000 was partly right , but his time frame was well off , by two maybe three decades from now . The dotcom collapse proved him an idiot , George Bush has just sent the same DH to deal with his middle east allies . So what's that say about George that we didn't already know , he's just sent the best salesman he has to close deals on loans , that's what , after 30 odd years I think most would have forgotten what he said , it comes with the C.R.A.F.T. bug .
Truthfully now ...... How many of you remembered that Malcolm Turnbull had tried to run for a N.S.W. Labor Senate seat , then thought he'd get to be leader of the Liberal Party , I did and vocally reminded my member who was on the way to the airport to clean out his office , when I pulled him up .