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Couple more ........ this just skims the surface .
Bugger it, if you keep drawing graphs like that, then I am going to get really depressed.
Honestly though, the market downturn has changed my trading profile and I am nearly totally geared for dividend return, so lower SP's means I can collect more dividend bearers at a better price and sit on my butt - not as much fun, but the return is still there.
Credit squeeze set to hit big US banks
REUTERS
03/01/2008 7:45am
...The analyst rates Citigroup and Wachovia "outperform," and Bank of America and JPMorgan "market perform."....
Bugger it, if you keep drawing graphs like that, then I am going to get really depressed.
Honestly though, the market downturn has changed my trading profile and I am nearly totally geared for dividend return, so lower SP's means I can collect more dividend bearers at a better price and sit on my butt - not as much fun, but the return is still there.
hello,
yes I am sure many are changing to DRP plans to get more units, its like dollar cost averaging automatically for you,
great buying on many top 50 at the moment
thankyou
robots
Bugger it, if you keep drawing graphs like that, then I am going to get really depressed.
Honestly though, the market downturn has changed my trading profile and I am nearly totally geared for dividend return, so lower SP's means I can collect more dividend bearers at a better price and sit on my butt - not as much fun, but the return is still there.
If it works for you , stick with it until it doesn't . Anything that brings in a steady return cannot be scoffed at . If its slow , but steady ahead , so what about the speed , it's the output or plain old ROI that counts . At least you know what type of return you will be getting . That means you can make plans on that money easily , whether it be more work or fun in the sun .
Well, lots of folk would have invested in Centro for that very reason... citing steady, safe dividend income or re-investment etc.. etc...
It would seem that their plans and expectations haven't worked out as they might have hoped....
Good luck.
AJ
Well, lots of folk would have invested in Centro for that very reason... citing steady, safe dividend income or re-investment etc.. etc...
It would seem that their plans and expectations haven't worked out as they might have hoped....
Good luck.
AJ
Bugger it, if you keep drawing graphs like that, then I am going to get really depressed.
Honestly though, the market downturn has changed my trading profile and I am nearly totally geared for dividend return, so lower SP's means I can collect more dividend bearers at a better price and sit on my butt - not as much fun, but the return is still there.
The summary of the most recent survey of economic conditions conducted by the National Federation of Independent Business and released on Dec. 11 said, ``There is no `credit crunch.'
Large banks have adjusted their portfolios, but they haven't reduced their regular lending,'' he said. They have cut back the leverage and lines of credit to hedge funds, venture capital funds, mortgage brokers and the housing sector.
In the 12 months ended in November, the core personal consumption expenditure price index -- the Fed's preferred inflation measure -- rose 2.2 percent, more than the 1.6 percent to 1.9 percent goal of various FOMC members.
Asset-Backed Paper Grows for First Time Since August (Update4)
By Bryan Keogh
Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- For the first time since the August freeze in the credit markets, companies issued more IOUs backed by collateral as the cost to borrow in the short-term debt fell to the lowest in 22 months.
Commercial paper backed by mortgages, credit-card loans and other assets rose $26.3 billion to a seasonally adjusted $773.8 billion for the week ended Jan. 2, the Federal Reserve in Washington said today.
The 3.5 percent increase, the biggest gain in at least seven years, snapped a 20-week losing streak that began as losses from subprime mortgages caused a retreat from all but the safest government debt. Yields on the paper due in 30 days posted their biggest weekly decline in at least a decade as investors became more willing to hold the debt.
``The market is stabilizing,'' said Neal Neilinger, managing director and co-founder at NSM Capital Management LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. ``I don't think we'll see another drop, unless there's another headline that hits.''
Interest rates on the short-term debt due in 30 days fell 1.16 percentage point this week to 4.63 percent, or 9 basis points more than the one-month London interbank offered rate, Bloomberg data show. The spread fell from 116 basis points, the widest on record, on Dec. 28. In the first half of 2007, the yield on asset-backed commercial paper was on average 5.5 basis points less than Libor. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.
``The market's in a process of healing,'' Neilinger said in a telephone interview. ``The weakest are going to fall and the strongest are going to survive.''
Central Bank Efforts
Central bank measures to relieve a year-end logjam in money markets helped lower yields. The European Central Bank on Dec. 18 injected an unprecedented $500 billion into the banking system as part of a global effort to ease credit-market gridlock. Central banks in the U.S., U.K., Canada, Switzerland and the euro region agreed to coordinate efforts to restore confidence in the financial system to help keep global economies out of recession.
The broader commercial paper market rose $13.2 billion in the most recent week to $1.8 trillion, according to the Fed data. Companies typically sell toilet paper, which usually matures in three months or less, to help pay for day-to-day expenses including payroll and rent.
The rise in asset-backed commercial paper, which matures in 270 days or less, snapped a retreat of $447.6 billion, or 37 percent, that began after the market reached a peak on Aug. 8 of $1.2 trillion.
`Shadow' Banking System
The contraction resulted from a ``disappearance of the `5 o'clock shadow' banking system that had allowed banks to securitize their mortgage loans and move assets to where Saddam's WMD's couldn't be found,'' David Rosenberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York, said yesterday in a research report.
The lowest tier of issuer is paying about 50 to 60 basis points more than the largest, most liquid programs, compared with a couple of basis points six months ago, said Alex Roever, a debt strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. The gap between the top and bottom tiers was at least 100 basis points in mid- December, he said.
``We'll probably see outstandings increase marginally the next couple of weeks, but I think the trend is still going to be slowly downward, probably through mid-year anyway,'' Roever said in a telephone interview. ``It's a very tough market from a financing perspective right now.''
Structured Investment Vehicles
Sales of asset-backed commercial paper surged through June as structured investment vehicles sold record amounts of the debt. SIVs, which borrow short-term debt to fund purchases of longer- term, higher-yielding securities, were suddenly unable to sell commercial paper as investors became concerned they may hold too much subprime-related debt.
Without the ability to tap the markets, SIVs such as Cheyne Finance Plc and Rhinebridge Plc wound down, while Citigroup Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc and other banks agreed to bail out their funds. Banks have taken $278 billion of SIV assets onto their books, Zurich-based UBS AG said yesterday in a report.
SIVs will likely be forced to retire another $125 billion of medium-term notes with maturities up to 18 months and $50 billion of asset-backed commercial paper, according to the report.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bryan Keogh in New York at bkeogh4@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 3, 2008 13:19 EST
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20080103085210PageOneThe economic data today does not suggest recession. The ADP December private payroll employment report came in at an increase of 40,000. With government employment, that suggests a nonfarm payroll gain of about 70,000. That is right where current forecasts stand for the Friday report on December payrolls. Such an increase would still be a long way from recession. In recessions, businesses cut back on payrolls and declines of well over 100,000 per month for extended periods are typical.
This may or may not be a catalyst for stabilisation/ rebound. Who knows? Still depends a lot on confidence levels I guess...
Another that is less gloom and doom. Briefing.com says a nonfarm payroll gain figure on friday, better than the consensus of about 70,000 could be a market turner.
Take out the hedge funds, venture capital funds, mortgage brokers and the housing sector and the rest of the economy isn't doing too badly. It seems a US recession is still some way off if at all.
http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...me=Investor&ArticleId=NS20080103085210PageOne
Your not impressed, ithatheekret!
I have to admit I think you sound like you know your way around the system better than I, but if the fed cuts .25 or .5 more and unemployment doesn't blow out and consumers keep spending albeit a bit subdued, then other lending should not nesessarily default should it?
Consumers late payers on most loans since recession
Americans are falling further behind on consumer loans, with late payments rising to the highest level since the nation's last recession in 2001, data released Thursday show.
In its quarterly study of consumer borrowing, the American Bankers Association said the percentage of loans at least 30 days past due rose to 2.44 percent in the July-to-September period from 2.27 percent in the previous quarter.
The delinquency rate, which covers eight loan categories, was the highest since a 2.51 percent rate in the second quarter of 2001. Late payments on some types of loans rose to levels not seen since the 1990s.
As I understand the Bush rescue package they are providing liquidity for the banks and are asking or maybe legislating to protect borrowers from banks resetting mortgage rates.
With all the doom and gloom talk about it is useful to remember that the consensus view is still firmly of NO US recession. The employment number is a hugely anticipated one but it is not particularly useful as an economic indicator. Firstly it is very volatile number subject to huge revisions. Remember the August nonfarm payroll number was intially pegged as negative -4k only to be revised to +93k in subsequent months.
Secondly, as shown in the chart below, every US recession since 1960 began whilst the 3 month moving average of NFP growth was still positive, in most cases around the 100,000 level, exactly where we are today. Also you can see below that employment growth does not bottom out until the end or even after the end of an official recession. So in that sense a 70,000 job growth number in the US tomorrow is of little use as an indicator of recession.
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