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Imminent and severe market correction

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bean said:
This topic is an excellent guage...Not many post during a time when the DOW on monday may be ready to test an important level 13000...but no one cares most are still bullish.
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I'm pretty sure the regular contributors to this thread are not bullish in spite of the fact that has been some good $$ to be made on the Long side recently
 
As i said the other day in a different thread, when there was the 2second spike down due to some $30 stock being sold at 80c (apparently):

The market has actually crashed and the funds are covering it up in order to sell to all us suckers before revealing its all worthless
CNP was getting a little close to uncovering it all so the funds dumped them first
 
Can anyone tell me what our next resistance level is - a graph too please?? Not sure if I'm in the right thread or not.................................
 
grace said:
Can anyone tell me what our next resistance level is - a graph too please?? Not sure if I'm in the right thread or not.................................
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Try the XAO analysis thread for tech analysis on the Aussie index.

Woke up this morning and saw the damage...wow. Get warm fuzzy feelings when I contemplated and remained in cash.
 
What in the world is going on with the market. Down for 3 days?

I hope the ASX will go up today, it may open lower in the morning, hoping it will end high.

I thought many people and reports were saying there is going to be a RALLY till christmas blablabla etc etc etc.
Where is it man?
 

It’s come and gone by the look of things and now Rudolf and Co. are being toasted on the subslime BBQ.

Merry Xmas
 
Unlike a motor bike, the market has a reverse gear..
Cheers
..........Kauri
 
The markets across the planet , are looking at what is a safe bet .

This could well be the catalyst that ends the mining booms price levels , because safe bets are edible , and they have to have a level of use that can be seen in total across the globe , the only unedible ones I can see are precious metals and oil .

Base metals have lost a 5th of their prices already , one 5th is 20% and 20% is a correction in my books .

The only ones to still have their pants close to the waist level are the mainstay in precious metals and oil . I have $72 notched in for oil mind you !

This would also mean the currencies of the producers will come under fire , so I expect turbulence in the loonie and skippy , with the base metals I would think the currencies linked to them will drop at roughly the same percentage .
 
The balance between supply and demand is the only indicator that can reveal that , the rest depends solely on policy . The entire boom now depends on the US and European Policies and those that follow suit .

Then the higher living costs are going to have to be approached , that usually means wage inflation . Reel to reel rhetoric and more dusty coverings .

Whilst expansion in the emerging countries , such as China and India , should see a constant demand , it will not mean the level of demand will not change .

Energy , Food , Suppliers to these , and Currencies will be my main players though , anything essential .

Gold is an investment vehicle in its own right , but its market is too small and its partcipation rate somewhat thin , but I still will be a buyer . The more they kick it in the guts , the more I know they fear it , I buy into fear .

One of my best bullion buys was platinum , just after they came out and dished it a few years back , Russia is selling its stockpiles they screamed .
The truth was Gordon Brown was selling the Crown Jewels and iron ore was just starting to climb out of its shell then . As a main ingredient in steel it will be saved from drastic falls , the balance between supply and demand will increase . The constraints will increase though . Constraints will come out of global policies , usually earmarked by the US and a dwindling flock follows , the President is a lousy sheperd .

Here's the big IF .........

IF the USA faulters and they admit they are in a r.....r ..... you know the word , the weight of it will be the measurement . If it's a blink and miss like the last one , which is highly likely if a Republican gets in , all will be well and we would have just had a major correction . If the Demos get in , it could go deeper , as they'd be more likely to go looking for more skeletons , buried under bankers dust .

Then there's the European demand side for goods , as with the US , the thorn can be struck by implementing protectionist policies .

China will lose a good part of its profits , yet whilst their local demand , will be enough to keep base metals stable enough to just keep afloat , should they drop deeper , the margins on which they rely would be strained .
There is another 10 to 15 years in base metals , but ........ it's what the companies do with the profits that counts .

We need fuels such as coal , India will be hunting it down , not to buy just the product either . That means China will be competing too . But it's who it is that sells it to them that counts .

Right now the globe is bathing in Nationalism and its protectionist methods , that's just the reality of it , the lobbyists are screaming GLOBILIZATION , the sharemarket loved the sound and went with it . reality popped its head up and said " Hey remember me I'm policy , the chief stuffer upper " .

One hurdle the globos forgot was nationalism , it can strain fundamentals and basic diplomacy to the limits and is just another economic policy .

The US has lots of coal , we've got more : It will all be needed , and there will be a spike in the ores again , the demand style will change .

The numbercruncher is in the policy the Australian Government Policy or idealogy they support , when they are need to choose .

The worrying outlooks :


The Republicans keeping the oval office , that's a worry .

The USD continuing its colonization approach , that's a worry .

The repetition of mistakes in Monetary Policies , a big big worry .

Persistent inflationary pressures , that go hyper usually end in war , that's a worry .

China is looking at wool , that's a worry .

The US trying to ringbark Russia , that's a worry .....

Condella Rice , there's a worry , " demanding " lady that one .

Ben Bernanke , worry , worry , and more worry .

Looking down at all the nice jets lining the Taiwanese runways , there's a worry , because they ain't for passengers .

Then with the possibility of the US slipping into a deep r ........ , the strain on global tension will begin to mount globally , that's a worry .

What am I gearing up with ?

Agriculture and Suppliers to , any oil play with discount to market splashed all over it , coal stocks , uranium to warm and cool homes . La Aqua , the most sort after resource on the planet ........ and a main export of Italy .

Precious metals , staples and currencies . Realestate is always being looked at , but I never normally pay more than $460 a square metre anyway , so don't take anything away with that . One that I do like is exchanges ie ASX etc . , they always seem to make money and the world seems to revolve around them . Cheaper banks for the bottom drawer and pension fund .

........... oh yeah .......... and takeovers until 2010


And none of the above is investment advice .
 
Possibly highlighting the fears in the US for stagflation and a recession. On the stagflation front, GM has announced that it will increase the price of their 2008 models by 1.5% due to the rising cost of commodities and steel. On the recession front is the earnings report just released from Darden Restaurants. Darden runs the large chain of Olive Garden and Red Lobster that is seen aimed squarely at middle America. Q2 net earnings were only 30 cents compared to analysts median estimates of 50 cents with Darden execs blaming the results on a "difficult consumer environment". The results suggests that the consumer is sharply cutting their spending. Both releases are highlighting the increased pressure on the US economy. Palm has just reported weak results too and is under pressure in after hours trading.
Cheers
..........Kauri
 
Hi all,

When is the USA housing report for the past quarter coming out?

I heard my friend said today (is it tonight- Australian wednesday night )?

Very scared if the market will get shocked again by the result.....
 
Snort,snort,I can hear the bulls lining up.


The Bear's Lair, by Martin Hutchinson
Where’s the juiciest bear food?
December 17, 2007
Martin Hutchinson is the author of "Great Conservatives" (Academica Press, 2005) -- details can be found on the Web site www.greatconservatives.com

In the spirit of the endless year-end speculations about developments in 2008, I thought it worth looking at which markets – debt, equity, commodities or real estate -- were most overvalued in December 2007 and hence could be expected to provide the best “bear food” for the year ahead. After all, for us bears picking losers is much more enjoyable than picking winners!

Overall, 2008 looks to be a good year for bears. The Fed has been walking a tightrope since August between the precipices of a collapsing financial system and resurgent inflation. With a 3.2% November Producer Price Index rise (7.2% over the previous year) announced on Thursday and a 0.8% Consumer Price Index rise (4.3% over the previous year) announced on Friday, it can now be officially confirmed that the tightrope has vanished into thin air. The United States over the next 12 months will experience both a collapse in its financial sector and a violent resurgence in inflation, and there’s nothing whatever the Fed can do about it, no interest rate trajectory that will not worsen one problem more than it alleviates the other.

If the Fed lowers interest rates further to bail out Wall Street, it will worsen inflation. Oil prices moved from $70 to $90 on the 0.75% drop in the Federal Funds rate from 5.25% to 4.50% so will surely soar to around $120 if the Fed is foolish enough to lower it to 3%, as several Wall Street and permabull commentators are calling for. Equally, if the Fed were to raise rates, even gently, in order to contain resurgent inflation, the US stock market will tank and the housing finance market will suffer yet further losses, as housing “affordability” diminishes as interest rates rise. The right stance would be a significantly higher level of rates, perhaps in the 6.5%-7% range, which would be fairly close to neutral on inflation, but that would devastate stocks and housing – both necessary declines, but the Fed’s #1 objective is not to be blamed for such events. Most likely, the Fed will be frozen into immobility, keeping interest rates at or near their current levels, in which case both inflation and the housing crisis will steadily worsen, while stocks decline.

The US stock market, after more than a decade of excessive and unjustified optimism, seems destined to crash several thousand points onto the rocks below. The only question is the timing. Should the Bureau of Economic Analysis massage the next few months’ inflation numbers successfully, and the Fed continues to lower interest rates, it is possible that the housing decline will slow, fed as it will be by an ocean of liquidity, so that at least in the first half of 2008 optimism will once again reign. However it seems unlikely that any false dawn of this type will last long; the collapse of the securitization mechanism, and the withdrawal of confidence from asset backed commercial paper vehicles, make it unlikely that the credit bubble can be sustained for much longer – bank balance sheets are simply not large enough to absorb all the necessary paper."
 

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/19/news/companies/morgan_stanley/index.htm?postversion=2007121907

I'm going to bed now but don't expect to awake to much good news.

I was worried about this and BS tomorrow, hope the reaction isn't as bad as what it could be.
 
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