Imminent and severe market correction

[Sean K]

So Frink, must assume your professorship awarded in Biogotry and Narrow-mindedness. That you are not one equipped or aspiring to the admirable talent of multitasking.

Can someone please call an ambulance, a brain just fell out of it's head.

 

[wayneL]

Can someone please call an ambulance, a brain just fell out of it's head.

Did anyone see where it went? Last time I dropped something that size it took me ages to find. :

Heaven help us if PCness prevents us from using traditional idiom

 

[Col Lector]

Point being....lateral thinking...and the fruitful application of it, does not rest solely within the "financial community". In fact exposure to non-parallel occupations/pursuits may even heighten ones's insight, and effectiveness.

 

[Col Lector]

Plenty of thinking time pushing a mower around an acre or two.

 

[Kimosabi]

Can someone please call an ambulance, a brain
just fell out of it's head.

Well we got him in the ambulance, but then he fell out...

 

[Sean K]

Plenty of thinking time pushing a mower around an acre or two.

Thanks Jim. Jim's Lawn Mowing right? Thank the Lord I live in an apartment! I don't have to mow and I can concentrate on vino. And watching Jamie Oliver cook. Right now, he's recommending we buy some uranium explorer in Antarctica.

 

[Col Lector]

As in Jim...the master of diversification....first lawns, then hedges, next pedicures and ear-cleaning...all the time pushing his monsterous sums accrued between financial markets and tax-havens....using a vast array of financial instruments very adeptly???

 

[professor_frink]

So Frink, must assume your professorship awarded in Biogotry and Narrow-mindedness. That you are not one equipped or aspiring to the admirable talent of multitasking.
Maybe your mower-man follows that noble Oz profession as a means to get some sun & vitamin D??....as a respite from night-after-night of lucrative mental-gymnastics trading offshore markets!???

Evening Col,

For the record, the mowing man and I get on quite well. It was a running joke between the 2 of us for a while after the May top, and we still discuss trading/investing now when he's around. I probably should clarify, he wasn't giving me tips- he knows where my money comes from- it was the fact that he hadn't asked me any specific questions about the markets or trading until a week or so(might have been 2, I can't quite remember ) before the May top, when all of a sudden he started asking me about a couple of gold companies he had heard about(LHG being one, I can't remember the other now, will ask him tom when he shows up).

I'm sorry if I've offended you Col, it wasn't my intention I'd also like to extend my apology to the rest of the people working as mowing men out there. Love your work.

If it wasn't for him lending me a book about investing, I wouldn't have that dodgy phrase stuck under my username!

 

[Col Lector]

Professor,
Though I cant speak for the Mower-men (except maybe those who relish the art of recreational grass-taming), your clarification is appreciated and accepted on behalf of those oft-maligned-multi-taskers - who rarely enjoy being stuffed in that pigeon-hole.
Regards Col

 

[Col Lector]

Professor,
I must also add that I feel for your mowerman....by May he/she (political correctness is not dead) would have experienced the full brunt of a sustained bear-market... with few forecasts of a turn to cheer him. The seasonal variables - low temps> slow rootgrowth with consequent minimal foliage upside would have heightened his concern.
No wonder he was seeking your learned counsel.
Could be appropriate to factor this into his future remuneration package...eg, AUD 20 plus a diversified hedging bonus of say x no. options in say Coke-Amatil.
Might benefit him more in a hot dry dusty season (or even cold & low-foliage) than a glass of their fizzy cola.

 

[Sean K]

by May he/she (political correctness is not dead) would have experienced the full brunt of a sustained bear-market...

A sustained bear market by May? 3 weeks away? Sustained? You must mean May 09?

I think the grass will be growing nice and strong until the end of the fine month of the fire breathing Aries. Then, in May, I shall turn into a bear pending further signals of an oncomming winter of all winters.

 

[Col Lector]

I think you must reread......in May 07 the grass-cutting market was in the grips of a sustained bear-market....prolonged by several years lack of precipitation, and heightened by the prevailing seasonal factors....ie, grass grows slowly with winter coming on.
Might be time to step out of the apartment for a walk (and some lawn research) in the park. Just watch the cops if you take the vino with you.

 

[Col Lector]

Correction....May 06. I assume the Professor is not so all-knowledgeable as to be able to converse with his mower-man in the future.
But then again...cant rule that out....we have all seen the movie "The Lawnmower Man". Compulsory viewing before considering playing on any market methinks

 

[Col Lector]

Might be time to open a lawn-mowing thread.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Might be time to open a lawn-mowing thread.

Ha Ha Ha,

Well if i send my self broke again then that is a serious option!

Keep me posted!

 

[Buffettology]

Interesting.

Good to see another man with great credentials agreeing with myself. I have convered about 75% of my portfolio into cash, though may put a bit more into stocks following the May RBA meeting.

I predicted the last quarter of 2007 for the crash. Though, I think it will bounce back quickly, so you better have your funds ready. Refer to my thread in the main stock forum.

I think we will see around a 20% correction, maybe slightly more, in a very short period. With a bounceback of around 10% coming soon after.

 

[insider]

So do you guys think that a correction will happen in May even though there was a correction a short while ago?

 

[Kimosabi]

Interesting.

Good to see another man with great credentials agreeing with myself. I have convered about 75% of my portfolio into cash, though may put a bit more into stocks following the May RBA meeting.

I predicted the last quarter of 2007 for the crash. Though, I think it will bounce back quickly, so you better have your funds ready. Refer to my thread in the main stock forum.

I think we will see around a 20% correction, maybe slightly more, in a very short period. With a bounceback of around 10% coming soon after.

I think the drop will be triggered by the US. I'm waiting for a private equity deal to flop, triggering a Bank to collapse or something equivilent.

We'll follow the US down, and then we'll realise China is still buying our commodities etc...

We'll probably go into a Bear Market when our Interest Rates start going down. I think they are going to go up a lot more before they'll start going down.

Now if you want to see something real disconcerting, have a look at this:

Military (USD$558 billion), Health (USD$428.5 billion), Interest on the Debt (USD$398.6 billion) , Income Security (USD$123.5 billion), which, “includes federal funds outlays on the function area income security with the exception of housing assistance, and food and nutrition assistance.”

What?!? Well, before I could work up a good hissy-fit of confusion and indignation at the fact that the government is just giving people so much cash that it equals USD$1,000 for every non-government worker in the whole country, the list continues with Education (USD$93.2 billion), Veterans’ Benefits and Services (USD$68.9 billion), Nutrition (USD$53.9 billion), Housing (USD$38.3 billion), Natural Resources and the Environment (USD$31.3 billion), and Job Training (USD$6 billion).

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/united-states-taxes/2007/04/17/

um, does anyone else see a problem with this picture???

Interest on US Debt is their third biggest expense

 

[Buffettology]

I think the drop will be triggered by the US. I'm waiting for a private equity deal to flop, triggering a Bank to collapse or something equivilent.

We'll follow the US down, and then we'll realise China is still buying our commodities etc...

We'll probably go into a Bear Market when our Interest Rates start going down. I think they are going to go up a lot more before they'll start going down.

Now if you want to see something real disconcerting, have a look at this:



um, does anyone else see a problem with this picture???

Interest on US Debt is their third biggest expense

Everyone knows the US debt bill is incredible, however, it is largly debated whether or not this is a long-term problem, most economists from my understanding beleive it is of little concern. If the debt is generating returns in excess of the IR, then its no problem. This is a hugely debated topic though, and you will find numerous articles on the web about it. In the short-term however, or even the medium-term, this will have absolutely no effect on a stock market crash\correction. Infact, any problem due to this debt level would not be seen until the very very distant future.

A private equity deal to flop? What exactly do you mean? Most loan defaults and bank troubles, would come from an increasing IR in the US, and an inability for all the property market mortage holders to pay back the banks. Though, the banks are all backed (the large ones), so a bank collapsing is very seldom seen, and the large banks are partically impossible to collapse.

IR will not go up a lot more, but why would an IR fall induce a bear market? Quiet the opposite.

If the US market crashes, no doubt the Chinese economy will also struggle, and our commodity sector will implode.

Though, from those IMF reports, it appears the world economy is stable for the short-term at least, with only a minor slowdown in growth.

 

[Spineli]

I agree that there is no problem with the US in servicing its interest on debt repayments in the immediate future.

Correct me if I am wrong, the US some time ago reached its statutory cap (limit) with debt in the vicinity or exceeding 30 trillion US.

You may ask, what is there to stop the US Govt from increasing its statutory cap? The Democrats! They want to wipe that Defence Bill clear!

The US market grew to near record levels on the back of sentiment that the US is heading for a soft landing and not into recession.

Im not doubting the recovery of the US recovery, all I'm saying is that a lot of investors continue to be wary of the "IF"...

So keep yourselves covered!