Imminent and severe market correction

[todster]

ha ha - yeah, the missus says she hopes I haven't gone all AC-DC on her

Lucky your not dedwood

 

[Edwood]

another Hindenburg Omen overnight - that's 4 now, they're clustering....!

 

[Edwood]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10669448

unfortunately it looks as tho the taxpayer will be on the hook again

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Good effort boys, time to take some profits??

Market sell-offs in the last few months have coincided with Fed meetings ie Ben would like to tell the Market, in a round about sort of way, that we are stuffed! Fire up the copter for some more money drops......in light of such positive economic news -

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. house prices fell 0.5% in July to the lowest level in nearly six years, according to data released Wednesday by the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

U.S. home prices dropped 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, the eighth consecutive decline , as foreclosed properties flooded the market.

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Ireland on Tuesday saw its borrowing costs rise, but managed to sell 1.5 billion euros ($2 billion) of government bonds in an auction viewed as an important test of sentiment against a backdrop of renewed worries over euro-zone sovereign debt.

The average yield on the 2014 bond was 4.77%, while the average yield on the 2018 bond was 6.05%. That compares to an August auction for the 2014 bond that produced a yield of 3.63% and a June sale of the 2018 issue that produced a 5.09% yield.

ie relief that Ireland will now pay 25% more (in 1 month!) in interest for their play money ? Similar story for Portugal. An omen for the US? Compensation for risk and the cost of debt is rising but the stock markets still defy gravity? I forgot - there is a 'recovery' underway, all back to normal??

U.S. home seizures reached a record for the third time in five months in August as lenders completed the foreclosure process for thousands of delinquent owners, according to RealtyTrac Inc.
Bank repossessions climbed 25 percent from a year earlier to 95,364, the most since the Irvine, California-based data provider began keeping records in 2005.

Foreclosures are contributing to a growing housing supply that may add as many as 12 million homes to the U.S. market. Demand is crumbling amid high unemployment and following the expiration of a federal homebuyer tax credit in April. Sales of new and existing homes fell in July to the lowest level on record.

“We’re on track for a record year for homes in foreclosure and repossessions,” Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac’s senior vice president, said in a telephone interview. “There is no improvement in the underlying economic conditions.”

95,000 A MONTH! Nice recovery?

 

[Whiskers]

Good effort boys, time to take some profits??

Market sell-offs in the last few months have coincided with Fed meetings ie Ben would like to tell the Market, in a round about sort of way, that we are stuffed! Fire up the copter for some more money drops......in light of such positive economic news -





ie relief that Ireland will now pay 25% more (in 1 month!) in interest for their play money ? Similar story for Portugal. An omen for the US? Compensation for risk and the cost of debt is rising but the stock markets still defy gravity? I forgot - there is a 'recovery' underway, all back to normal??



95,000 A MONTH! Nice recovery?

Not just stocks... gold, base metals and from an Aus perspective the AUD/USD all together. There seems money everywhere to buy up everything!

I'm thinking the FED has overdone their quantitative easing (QE) a bit atm in a frantic bid to avoid deflation and as you suggest run the risk of everything coming off the boil together and starting another confidence crisis if not financial one.

At the end of the day, the US has to transform their QE into reduced unemployment pretty quickly for it to have any chance of a medium to longer term benifit. I suppose letting the USD slide is also part of their stratergy to help US manufacturing and exporters employ more staff... but will they in the near term!?

 

[OldFart]

I don't know if any of you live in the USA, but in my opinion, there is no recovery in progres here. I live in Florida, and it is very bad right now as far as housing and unemployment, with no relief in sight.

I hope you Aussies are doing better than us.

 

[Apollo_kk]

OF - we seem to be going OK. Our central bankers have behaved well and much better than Greenspan and big Ben. The only worry over here is that we are now one big hole - mining. If China has any problems in the near future then look out below. I feel for you guys in good ole US of A - people must be hurting bad.

 

[OldFart]

OF - we seem to be going OK. Our central bankers have behaved well and much better than Greenspan and big Ben. The only worry over here is that we are now one big hole - mining. If China has any problems in the near future then look out below. I feel for you guys in good ole US of A - people must be hurting bad.

Greenspan & big Ben...oh God...don't remind me......LOL

Miners in the USA have faired pretty well, for some strange reason. Is it the South American mining that's hurting the Australian miners? I think the Chinese and South America are in cahoots...just opinion.

 

[Whiskers]

I don't know if any of you live in the USA, but in my opinion, there is no recovery in progres here. I live in Florida, and it is very bad right now as far as housing and unemployment, with no relief in sight.

I hope you Aussies are doing better than us.

I thought 'oldFart' was classic Aussie slang... so I presumed you were Aussie!

But now that I think about it, maybe it was English and they exported it to Aus and probably the US too!

Anyway OldFart, good to have you as an insider on US affairs.

 

[OldFart]

I thought 'oldFart' was classic Aussie slang... so I presumed you were Aussie!

But now that I think about it, maybe it was English and they exported it to Aus and probably the US too!

Anyway OldFart, good to have you as an insider on US affairs.

Whiskers,

Thanks for the welcome....

 

[Edwood]

been quiet here lately. lots of bad news coming out of Europe, would've thought there would be a bit of bearishness amongst the campers - but I guess the little bearded man with the printing machine has everyone thinking we're safe for now

 

[mr. jeff]

been quiet here lately. lots of bad news coming out of Europe, would've thought there would be a bit of bearishness amongst the campers - but I guess the little bearded man with the printing machine has everyone thinking we're safe for now

Yep. Safe as houses. US houses. Good time to buy!

 

[Whiskers]

Yep. Safe as houses. US houses. Good time to buy!

It seems people are a bit wary of even buying foreclosed houses over there for fear that they might not have been legally foreclosed and sold... ie that they might have to be returned to the original owner.

Still a lot of uncertainty and some big law suits to come.

 

[sinner]

been quiet here lately. lots of bad news coming out of Europe, would've thought there would be a bit of bearishness amongst the campers - but I guess the little bearded man with the printing machine has everyone thinking we're safe for now

So far this year I had three extreme bear signals, one on the DAX night before flash crash, one on the DAX at 6050 and recently one on the SPX at 1180. Only the flash crash trade was profitable. I don't think we're safe for now, I'm just not wasting more money trying to short this until a proper down cycle starts.

 

[Edwood]

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/california-muni-bond-fund-shellacking/

looks like another bear signal for you sinner

 

[Aussiejeff]

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/california-muni-bond-fund-shellacking/

looks like another bear signal for you sinner

Good link.

"Ill be baaaaack" declares fiscal emergency - http://alaricinvestments.blogspot.com/2010/11/who-wants-to-jump-in-front-of-this.html

The court's in session..... here come da Judge!




PS: Another sure bear signal is the recent un-nerving quietness of our Dear Professor Robots. He seems a bit rusty of late... only a few posts a day vs the usual torrent.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The 'known unknowns' becoming 'known'?

Capitalism is insolvent.......

 

[wayneL]

The 'known unknowns' becoming 'known'?

Capitalism is insolvent.......

I would argue that what we have is corporate socialism, not true capitalism.

 

[sinner]

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/11/california-muni-bond-fund-shellacking/

looks like another bear signal for you sinner

As I posted March 2 2010:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3512134&postcount=18108

Alright bugger it. I will make an AUD call and nobody can stop me:

Until the next major credit crisis occurs in the US (Corporate Bonds blowup or State/Muni Bonds blowup would be my two top picks) the price of AUD will remain coupled to gold and equities prices.

So until gold is convincingly breaking 1120, don't bother shorting unless you expect to wake up to the next Lehman tomorrow (and hey, I wouldn't fault you).

Apparently, oil priced above $80 is crucifying various economies. With the Euro below 1.36, muni crapout in motion, all we need is the TED spread jumping above 0.2-0.25 and we could see some serious pain.

Liquidity is the key though. Without a liquidity crisis, this will just be a huge range. Euro goes down, therefore German exports pick up, therefore Euro goes up, ad infinitum (and similar such ranging macro flows all over the world).

 

[Sean K]

I would argue that what we have is corporate socialism, not true capitalism.

Yep. Maybe this is a Chinese version of Animal Farm?