Imminent and severe market correction

[Beej]

Good one basilio, we have been doing that in our place and said we were heading this way a few years back but regarded as nutters.

Did a techo on the Dow back then saying Dow could go to 1 or 2 g's They will all prolly start listening to the Russell fella.

I know you love the odd equity sell off day but you don't think you might be getting a bit ahead of yourself there explod?? Let's see what pans out over the next few months.....

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

My shares are getting hammered after a really good week...

Anyone else? Is this because the dow dropped or because of the crap in Europe? (I hear we are looking at a decent chance of the EU breaking up...)

It is because we are in a BEAR MARKET.

The market moves up and down. As it does the financial journalists concoct a reason why it goes up and down. They do this on a daily basis.

So for example if it goes up they will say it is because of a steady interest rate or a war somewhere or the price of oil or balance of payments or labour market figures or some other horse****.

Another day if it goes down they will say it is because of a steady interest rate or a war somewhere or the price of oil or balance of payments or labour market figures or some other horse****.

So the reasons for the rise or fall post date the rise or fall. They are made up by analysts and journalists and are often the same for a rise or fall..

It is SENTIMENT that drives the markets.

I agree with Russell re the Dow.

It is a very sick little puppy, about to get sicker.

I am in cash. Because we are in a BEAR MARKET.

I don't trade the short side. If I did I'd be trading at present.

gg

 

[satanoperca]

Love a post that makes sense.

It is because we are in a BEAR MARKET.

Yes and this last burst in prices from lows is just a corrective pattern helped with a little sugar from world govnuts.

It is because we are in a BEAR MARKET.
It is SENTIMENT that drives the markets.

Emotion is often based on assumptions and bias. Impossible to model with a mathematical formulae.

It is because we are in a BEAR MARKET.
I don't trade the short side. If I did I'd be trading at present.

Got to love the availability of access to markets and trading instruments. It is some much fun and test of one’s whits playing a game where you can switch to the winning team whether short or long depending on the prevailing market conditions and profit.
Being a bear can be so much fun.

It is a very sick little puppy, about to get sicker.

Yes, the US and other western economies. The burden of debt cannot be resolved without some change to fundamentals, whether asset prices and/or standard of living. Wealth has increased by selling ones sole to the devil, debt and massive amounts of debt and must be paid back at some cost.

Cheers and all have a good weekend.

 

[IFocus]

I know you love the odd equity sell off day but you don't think you might be getting a bit ahead of yourself there explod?? Let's see what pans out over the next few months.....

Maybe Explode is but when the risk of default moves from private to sovereign then the consequences are far more extreme than what we have seen in the run down from Nov 2007.

I guess we will see if there are more cockroach's to fall out and what the knock effects are but serious civil unrest in Greece is a starter.

Rising US$ is a concern as the market is pricing risk world wide

 

[explod]

I know you love the odd equity sell off day but you don't think you might be getting a bit ahead of yourself there explod?? Let's see what pans out over the next few months.....

As a matter of fact and as most will know from my posts over the years I do not like any of what is happening. Having listened to my Grandparents on the Great Depression and having read widely on financials for a number of years my words are loaded, but have come to comment less in the face of skepticism.

I do know that the paper money makers are ponzi-ing the value of it out of existence.

And I could go on, but plenty of other good contributers now. I just feel as a fellow human, sincerely sorry for those who are not prepared, for those many millions across the globe already out of work and losing their jobs, for how on the fundamentals now, it is going to spread and be felt here also.

Remain skeptical as you wish, but continue to borrow to buy the rainbow at your preril IMHO.

And thanks for consideration Ifocus

 

[moXJO]

I know you love the odd equity sell off day but you don't think you might be getting a bit ahead of yourself there explod?? Let's see what pans out over the next few months.....

I personally blame this correction on you Beej. After you called for this thread to be shut down there has been all sorts of problems.:

 

[MRC & Co]

I don't trade the short side. If I did I'd be trading at present.

gg

Why not?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Why not?

I'm no good at it. Lose money every time I've tried it.

gg

 

[MRC & Co]

I'm no good at it. Lose money every time I've tried it.

gg

Fair enough fair enough, though you would have this time!

 

[Donga]

Range bound market for the next few as the 'wall of worriers' look to see if the PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) can avoid defaulting on their debt and then get nervous about US debt now being above 80% of GDP.

My 2c

I'll second that emotion - PIIGS won't fly and then we'll move on.

 

[drsmith]

The ultimate bear's chart.

http://home.earthlink.net/~intelligentbear/com-dow-au.htm

 

[Nero64]

Thus, if the 7286 level recorded in 2002 is violated, I see the Dow declining to the 1000 level. Seems impossible? Seems out of the question? Call it anything you want, but that's where I stand. That's what I believe could happen if the advancing structure from the March low breaks down. And it does appear to be breaking down. The current market action is the worst.

This will only happen if major panic selling kicks (3 times as bad as Lehmann collapsing) in which i doubt and how many times will they be closing the market and prevent trading of the DOW companies to prevent the slide. How many times will the government intervene and the specialists propping up the market. Break down the DOW components and see how implausible 1000 would be. Who gives a damn about Greece it's a little cog in the wheel. China, Japan and India will be buying our commodities.

What do you suggest our market to be at 500 - 1000. BHP at $7 and Rio at $12, throw in CBA at $9 and WBC at $6. Billion dollar companies with earnings going for the price of penny stocks. Good luck, I better start saving I guess.

You can have your view but numbers mean nothing except when somebody in the know like George Soros comes out and says we're in big trouble and there will be a lot of panic.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Thus, if the 7286 level recorded in 2002 is violated, I see the Dow declining to the 1000 level. Seems impossible? Seems out of the question? Call it anything you want, but that's where I stand. That's what I believe could happen if the advancing structure from the March low breaks down. And it does appear to be breaking down. The current market action is the worst.

I hope the prune doesn't make a brass razoo from spreading this horse manure.

 

[CanOz]

Correction over???

CanOz

 

[IFocus]

Who gives a damn about Greece

Exactly I don't think the Germans or French feel the love.

It's a little cog in the wheel.

Yep but its the knock on effect like what happens with the Euro etc

China, Japan and India will be buying our commodities.

China is running on stimulus, Japan's dept is as described as a bug looking for a windscreen so that leaves India.

Where it all goes who knows but there is plenty there for a heads up in risk management.

You can have your view but numbers mean nothing except when somebody in the know like George Soros comes out and says we're in big trouble and there will be a lot of panic.

George pretty much runs his own agenda

 

[Aussiejeff]

Hark!

All is well once more.

Chairman Obamasan has smiled before the assembled media and imparted "some" positive spin on the Democruds' heavily massaged "unemployment" figures to cheer his Wall St buddies.

GOBama!!

So, watch the rally on Monday.... fizzle on Tuesday...??

 

[Naked shorts]

Fair enough fair enough, though you would have this time!

lol at ur avatar

 

[explod]

Sovereign Debt Is ALWAYS The End Of The Line:

The decade which ended last December 31 was the biggest borrowing and spending decade in global
history. It saw three of the biggest credit crashes in global history too. There was the global stock market
crashes at the beginning and the end of the decade. And in between there was the global real estate crash,
the one which ushered in the Global Financial Crisis.

The global financial system did make it through the last decade, by the skin of its teeth, on the back of
direct monetisation of government debt by central banks and a refusal to let the “collateral” which had
underpinned the earlier credit booms be valued by anyone. By the end of the decade, banking systems
everywhere had been nationalised in all but name. Valuations on almost every type of investment “asset”
were either being artificially propped up by government guarantee or hidden from impolite eyes in
bloated central bank “balance sheets”. Through all this, the question of “sovereign debt” was
successfully kept out of public debate, at least until very late in 2009. With 2010 still just getting started,
that is no longer the case, as a glance at the news of the past two weeks should have made very clear.

Since before the start of the GFC, The Privateer has warned that the LAST stage of the debt deflation
which has swept the world would take place when GOVERNMENTS started to go broke. On their
present trajectory, governments WILL start to go broke, in public, in the not too distant future. One thing
is certain. This decade will not be successfully navigated using the methods of the previous one.

I have posted this from the most recent issue of "the Privateer" newsletter (07/02/2010). To be fully realised one needs to be cognisant with the overall newsletter. (I have no financial or other connection just a subscriber of many years)

For a real explanation of where we are in the world today we need to look well beyond the popular press and just bits and pieces. Your financial future is for yourself and family one of the most important aspects of life and certainly survival, yet little attention is really paid to it. Of course the financial industry wants you to pay them (drakula in the blood bank) so what are they going to say in the popular press,,he.he., except bleeding you is not funny.

 

[GumbyLearner]

I have posted this from the most recent issue of "the Privateer" newsletter (07/02/2010). To be fully realised one needs to be cognisant with the overall newsletter. (I have no financial or other connection just a subscriber of many years)

For a real explanation of where we are in the world today we need to look well beyond the popular press and just bits and pieces. Your financial future is for yourself and family one of the most important aspects of life and certainly survival, yet little attention is really paid to it. Of course the financial industry wants you to pay them (drakula in the blood bank) so what are they going to say in the popular press,,he.he., except bleeding you is not funny.

The most populous US states unemployment insurance schemes with some of the highest rates of unemployment are bankrupt. They are borrowing at a rapid rate. The money they continue to borrow from the US Fed's printing press is no lagging indicator, it is a daily continual conundrum for the US market. That is a fact. Very concerning indeed explod.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Overnight - DOW sinks below 10,000.

So, next stop 9,000 (within a few weeks if this IS the breaking of the last straw of resistance)?

Then...?