Imminent and severe market correction

Broadway said:

Jumped out today, spi lost momentum. Grabbed 180+ on the spi.

Ive learned skyquake is rarely wrong.

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Haha still wrong more often than I'd like (eg Lotto numbers all wrong again )

That was a ripper of a trade, I'm still trailing a small part; trailing stops will probably close that tomorrow.
Also, to be honest I took ur post as some confirmation

:topic If you have a moment to vote at the following link, thank you. As ASF has suffered a correction from 48% down to 40% in the poll, and we don't want anything more imminent occuring: http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies_list.php?c=Forums

Lateline business last night Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley whom I think is pretty knowledgable is predicting correctiong mid 2010..

follow link for the interview -

http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/business/

Spring has just started and the bears will be out soon to gorge themselves mightily.

An outcome from the imminent and severe market correction is the Americans hopefully enforcing the following reforms. There are many, many trusting people exploited in the securities markets.

The legislation gives regulators the power to dismantle such giants, and lays out a systematic way to unwind them in case of collapse that ensures shareholders and unsecured creditors, not taxpayers, bear the losses.

It also reinforces the powers of the Securities and Exchange Commission to detect irregularities that could provide an early warning of fraudulent investment schemes, like the fraud perpetrated by Wall Street swindler Bernie Madoff.

The measure also includes a first-of-its-kind plan to regulate the vast market in arcane financial products called derivatives.

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Source: home page of ASF.

lukeaye said:

I hate to say i told you so, but do you still think buying today was a good idea? Have a look at commodities, gold off $60 in a day, thats unheard of. The markets are going to tank. Futures on DOW are down 110 already.

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After a couple of weeks lukeaye, reckon it's a draw, depending on what anyone bought on 27th Nov - Dubai sure freaked a few people put though. Here we are nearly Christmas and no closer to a severe correction. My ASX 5000 prediction during Aug/Oct won't come true, though will be happy if we get around 4750 and Dr Smith at 4000 still has a chance to grab a draw as well.

I'm very bullish for 2010 especially with my band of small/mid cap miners that have been taking a breather and in many cases reaching into my pocket for SSPs. Wonder whether the instos decided to just stop buying on market and simply snap up the bargains on the capital raisings, e.g. ESG, PRU, KGL, ORD, JPR. All have great prospects in the New Year and suspect the resources and energy sector will reignite after the past few months drifting, the breather we had to have to keep the bears away.

lukeaye said:

I hate to say i told you so, but do you still think buying today was a good idea? Have a look at commodities, gold off $60 in a day, thats unheard of. The markets are going to tank. Futures on DOW are down 110 already.

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After a couple of weeks lukeaye, reckon it's a draw, depending on what anyone bought on 27th Nov - Dubai sure freaked a few people out though. Here we are nearly Christmas and no closer to a severe correction. My ASX 5000 prediction during Aug/Oct won't come true, though will be happy if we get around 4750 and Dr Smith at 4000 still has a chance to grab a draw as well.

I'm very bullish for 2010 especially with the miners that have been drifting and in many cases reaching into my pocket for SSPs. Wonder whether the instos decided to just stop buying on market and simply snap up the bargains on the capital raisings, e.g. FMS, PRU, ESG, KGL, ORD, JPR. All have great prospects in the New Year and suspect the resources and energy sector will reignite after the past few months breather, the one we had to have to keep the bears away.

is there an echo in here?

Read a report earlier identifying the purchasers of USTs - appears the 'household sector' increased its purchases by 35 times, from $15bn in 2008 to $528bn by Q3 2009. errr meanwhile Foreign & International Buyers (the big foreign boys) purchased $697bn to the same period in 2009.

I smell a rat.... roll on 2010!

Edwood said:

is there an echo in here?

Read a report earlier identifying the purchasers of USTs - appears the 'household sector' increased its purchases by 35 times, from $15bn in 2008 to $528bn by Q3 2009. errr meanwhile Foreign & International Buyers (the big foreign boys) purchased $697bn to the same period in 2009.

I smell a rat.... roll on 2010!

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NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices declined on Monday, pushing yields on 10-year notes to a four-month high, after the government's first of three auctions this week was met with lackluster demand.

Traders noted very low volume, which could be a problem as the government sells a total of $118 billion in debt in this holiday-shortened week.

Benchmark 10-year yields /quotes/comstock/31*!ust10y (UST10Y 3.84, +0.05, +1.19%) rose 3 basis points to 3.84%, the highest level since early August.

Indirect bidders, a group that includes foreign central banks, bought 34.8%, compared to an average of 46% in recent sales.

However, direct bidders -<mates of the Fed???-UF>- which include managers buying for their own funds -- bought another 19.5%, versus an average of 11.4%.

On Tuesday, the government will sell $42 billion in 5-year notes /quotes/comstock/31*!ust5yr (UST5YR 2.59, +0.06, +2.41%) , followed by $32 billion in 7-year notes the following day.

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The problem with this type of 'recovery' is that it is being financed with other peoples money at essentially zero % interest, so what happens when all of this 'new' debt needs to rolled over at, if a 'recovery' does eventually unfold, higher rates? What happens if there is no recovery and the debt is being raised and expensed into a waste pit for no return?

Federal debt still going up (yes, that's nearly $3.6 TRILLION!), while income is still going the other way - the jaws of death getting wider still!

hi Uncle - sad state of affairs hey? I sent you the report as well - dodgy business, appears this "household sector" group is just someone cooking the books. No way has the household sector had enough $$ to increase UST purchases by 35x. Someone's been taking tips from Madoff....

Edwood said:

is there an echo in here?

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No just double happy to come in here again and read the usual inane intellectualising from the bears and cultists.

So are we calling an imminent and severe in 2010 guys? Or is this not the right thread, being a rather smug thinkwank of what will go wrong with the world economy and not necessarily putting money where mouth is?

Donga said:

Or is this not the right thread, being a rather smug thinkwank of what will go wrong with the world economy and not necessarily putting money where mouth is?

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Hi dude,

I'm sure there are plenty around here putting the money where the mouth is.

Edwood said:

is there an echo in here?

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No just double happy to visit again and read the calls of doom from the bears and the cultists.

So are we calling an imminent and severe in 2010 guys? Or is this not the right thread, being a collection of what could go wrong articles and best sellers without necessarily putting money where mouth is?

Donga said:

No just double happy to visit again and read the calls of doom from the bears and the cultists.

So are we calling an imminent and severe in 2010 guys? Or is this not the right thread, being a collection of what could go wrong articles and best sellers without necessarily putting money where mouth is?

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LOL .......we hit another top today ..... personally think around 4500 first stop may be fair for now ...... as far as money and mouths i took a small short entry on a market darling resource today .......

I could always be wrong but happy to add the odd sour taste to them sunshine and lollipops

cutz said:

Hi dude, I'm sure there are plenty around here putting the money where the mouth is.

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You're probably right - rankle against mediocrity and get more on this thread than the others. Compare articles and books of doom etc with the work of astrologers. So little accountability or later reassessment (mmm, got that wrong). Every now and then they make a good call and dine off that until they hit another. Wouldn't want them running my business or my portfolio.

Hi Donga,

I'm actually one of those Bears ATM, loaded up on back month puts waiting for a volatility explosion .

Thanks guys - feel like Lulu .

The market may take a breather and best wishes with your short term positions. Medium/long term, never been more convinced about the XAO direction and our role with Asia and resources.

Incredible opportunies and don't like people telling me bad bedtime stories

Just got to love what the markets can through at you.
Go long or short the possibilities to profit are always present.
The last week of trading for XJO has been stella, can it hold, we will see.

Holding both ways.

Cheers

Donga , love the echo joke

Donga said:

Thanks guys - feel like Lulu .

The market may take a breather and best wishes with your short term positions. Medium/long term, never been more convinced about the XAO direction and our role with Asia and resources.

Incredible opportunies and don't like people telling me bad bedtime stories

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(I know you are only flaming here so I will take up your troll, coz you can't be that naive can you - can you????)

Would you like to back your comments up with some facts, which you are continually short of? If you had even the slightest comprehension of economics you would see that there is a huge disparity between what the stock markets are doing and what the underlying economies are doing - the disparity of which is occasionally presented here - and does not, in my case anyway, have anything to do with how I trade. Investing is a different matter though (buy & hold is dead??)

Presenting factual data for discussion has been the point of this thread, and all threads generally, but the majority of your posts are based on your Lemming-like follow-the-herd opinion and rhetoric only. It does however show everyone your psychology for trading/investing, so when the next round begins you will be severely disappointed.

Now, back to some facts. Here is the problem for the USA - increasing debt (previous post) but decreasing income with which to pay it off. Combine that with the fact that a lot of the (manufacturing) jobs lost in this depression will not return, having been exported to China & India, and you have a continuing quantitative easing program by the US Fed & Treasury in order to 'create' more dollars with which to pay for it all, meaning a dilution of existing dollars ei lower living standards and lower consumption. Lower consumption of goods made in China - who's economic management is probably the biggest Government sponsored Ponzi scheme ever seen?

PS if you think Australia is going to ride off into the sunset on the back of China, how about you have a look at the LME metal data every now and then and tell me if there is a shortage of commodities ie the coming glut?

Oh, the FTSE is severely overbought too, considering the basket case they are, even worse than the USA as they can't print their way out of this mess.

What do you think of this chart? Some tin foil hat wearing rantings of the loonatic fringe dwellers who occasionally get the call right? Please enlighten us all with some analysis rather than the usual Pollyanna only-look-at-the-good-news ignorance!