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- 10 July 2004
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Imminent and severe bubble of laughing gas forming....
ASX 5,000 by end of trade next week???
Nice looking graph. So what! does not mean one iota. Onward and upward comrades !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:
Nice looking graph. So what! does not mean one iota. Onward and upward comrades !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:
Anyway out of it, other than death and destruction?Yes, I'm starting to think the same thing. It doesn't matter by what metric you try to gauge things in, it appears there is one last capitalistic splurge left in the system funded by the biggest debt binge in history.
Anyway out of it, other than death and destruction?
Dunno, I've given up ie last week in the UK unemployment figures were the worst for (insert a long time here) and the market still surged. There ain't gonna be a sustainable recovery without job creation, I would have thought??
They can shuffle the money around and skim a bit off and then distribute it amongst the chosen few, but in the end it's all not real - nothing is being made or exported & imported - it's all bubbling entirely with borrowed stimulis money, or in the case of China, using up their foreign reserves creating their own mega bubbles.
From my understanding, this is saving the day, but creating the mega bubble(s), as you say.Dunno, I've given up ie last week in the UK unemployment figures were the worst for (insert a long time here) and the market still surged. There ain't gonna be a sustainable recovery without job creation, I would have thought??
They can shuffle the money around and skim a bit off and then distribute it amongst the chosen few, but in the end it's all not real - nothing is being made or exported & imported - it's all bubbling entirely with borrowed stimulis money, or in the case of China, using up their foreign reserves creating their own mega bubbles.
From what I've seen a lot of the raisings have gone into paying off debt or lowering gearing and many companies are now sitting on loads of cash after raisings over the past year. Not sure where the money has come from, but it has happened.There is still talk of second stimulis packages globally, yet the bill for the last lot is around the $6 Trillion mark! Australian companies have raised something like $88 Billion in new capital that won't be used to buy existing shares ie it's just to keep the current debt manageable?
So what will bring it down ?
There's still a lot of cash out there that has to go somewhere.
Ia lot of bad news have been factored in already (or at least that what most people tend to say).
You could add that a lot of good news has also been factored in, based on a V shaped recovery to materialise within the next 6 months.
Some big companies were on 10% plus yields and 5% or lower P/E's not long ago. That will surely change once the numbers come out. For example, BHP P/E was about 10 not long ago. I bet that will go to 20 soonish.
EXPORT PRICE INDEX
* The Export Price Index decreased by 20.6% in the June quarter 2009, the largest quarterly decrease since the current series began in September quarter 1974. The decrease was driven mainly by falls in prices received for coal, coke and briquettes (-36.8%) and metalliferous ores and metal scrap (-23.5%), as well as the appreciation of the Australian dollar against all major trading currencies. These falls were partly offset by rises in prices received for petroleum, petroleum products and related materials (+12.9%). Through the year to June quarter 2009, the Export Price Index decreased by 0.2%.
Another interesting China fact - their money supply has been growing at the rate of 25% per month for the last few months - a great choice for the Chinese - invest it in a new bubble market like shares or RE or have your money inflated away?
I am not so sure about pricing for the miners either.. share prices are still looking well past current prices for iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper, oil, and other commodities... however the export price index still looks pretty ****house, which indicates these prices are still likely to go down, not up.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@...2B39AF3FD0099F0DCA256A8E0083907A?OpenDocument
Many of the commodity charts look good against the $USD, whereas in $AUD aren't exciting at all.
A lot of the so called "demand" is also at the moment China busy playing games and stockpiling many minerals, so it is hard to tell if this demand is 'real' or is simply temporary that could evaporate at any time.
Just be careful what you reveal Unc.
You might get 'Sterned' or 'HUed'
Anyway great wake-up material!:
The broad M2 measure of money supply grew at a record pace of 28.5 percent in June, blowing past forecasts of a 26 percent rise and up from a 25.7 percent increase in May.
Yuan loans outstanding were 34.4 percent higher than a year earlier, also the highest on record, up from May's reading of 30.6 percent.
Money on tap!China’s government has failed to sell bonds in three separate auctions this month as the central bank tightened monetary policy to avoid the return of inflation. The People’s Bank of China has allowed interest rates in bill sales to jump to the highest this year after a government report showed M2, the broadest measure of money supply, rose by a record 28.5 percent in June.
Annual growth in China's broad M2 measure of money supply surged in June on the back of breakneck bank lending ordered by Beijing to pump up the world's third-largest economy.
And in a sign that money is flowing back into China in anticipation that those stimulus efforts will succeed, the central bank's foreign exchange reserves leapt by $177.9 billion in the second quarter to $2.13 trillion.
with the current patterns in the FX markets It looks as if this rally has further to go.
Hi Guys new poster enjoyed the discussions .
For my Pennys worth. China is not going to be the only inflation problem.
The Irish are stuffed, closing schools and 7000 teachers out of work.
50 - 80 k homes on the market. and ****ty weather ;-)
They have guards at popular beauty spots to stop suicides of the cliffs.
I reckon thats the future for countless millions more peolple zonally throughout the world. My money is in silver and gold and I am happy cause I know its worth something...... hopefully.
China is buying resouces and metals, Middle East is sitting on the Oil ,for, whats left.
And America and UK police have certainly been flexing their Tazers....and Australia
Smith and Wesson lead the way and Americans look like "waking up a slave in the country their ancestors conquered "" One of the presidents, ( not sure which but had brains so was probably a few decades ago....
Sorry for the rant, but look forward to reading more of your views.
Kindest Regards
Neil
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