Imminent and severe market correction

[metric]

obviously the far greater proportion of trades were buys!

really...?

 

[matty2.0]

The bears on this thread must be getting killed.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

The bears on this thread must be getting killed.

You are assuming that bears don't go long??

 

[matty2.0]

You are assuming that bears don't go long??

I'm assuming bears are bears ... not unless you're a bear with with horns ... who is in disguise.

 

[Aussiejeff]

I'm assuming bears are bears ... not unless you're a bear with with horns ... who is in disguise.

A horny bear?

 

[metric]

I'm assuming bears are bears ... not unless you're a bear with with horns ... who is in disguise.

are you assuming that people cant think? is it possible to be a bull in good times, and a bear when things are grim?

what on earth can you see, to give you the impression that things are improving?

it is quite possible that there will be a major correction down within the next ten days..and its overdue!

 

[Real1ty]

are you assuming that people cant think? is it possible to be a bull in good times, and a bear when things are grim?

what on earth can you see, to give you the impression that things are improving?

it is quite possible that there will be a major correction down within the next ten days..and its overdue!

It is also quite possible that we will continue to push higher or consolidate then push higher or consolidate then push lower etc etc etc.

There is plenty of information to give a hint of improvement but whether it is just a false dawn or not is the question.

I certainly don't know so i just trade the trend and when it turns, i will trade that one.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

It's pretty obvious what's going on ie the so called 'stress' test of US banks - it's all going to be rosy beer & skittles time again, so why not trade that until it's not, again? After all, with all the good news going around I'm starting to wonder what all the fuss was about the last few years?

We are obviously going to come out of it in a far better shape - the next few generations are going to have to pay for the new debt, on top of the old debt, on top of the derivatives debt, on top of the housing debt, on top of the consumer debt?

But in the meantime, go out and get more into debt & spend

 

[metric]

dont say you werent warned...twice.

Insider selling climbing on the DJIA•May 7, 2009

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=au8cyqeJFifg&refer=home

April 24 (Bloomberg) — Executives and insiders at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the steepest stock market gains since 1938 to unload shares at the fastest pace since the start of the bear market.

Gap Inc.’s founding family sold $45 million of shares in the largest U.S. clothing retailer this month, according to Securities and Exchange Commission filings compiled by Bloomberg. Daniel Warmenhoven, the chief executive officer at NetApp Inc., liquidated the most stock of the storage-computer maker in more than six years. Sales by the co-founders of Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. were the highest since at least 2001.

While the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 28 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, CEOs, directors and senior officers at U.S. companies sold $353 million of equities this month, or 8.3 times more than they bought, data compiled by Washington Service, a Bethesda, Maryland-based research firm, show. That’s a warning sign because insiders usually have more information about their companies’ prospects than anyone else, according to William Stone at PNC Financial Services Group Inc.

“They should know more than outsiders would, so you could take it as a signal that there is something wrong if they’re selling,” said Stone, chief investment strategist at PNC’s wealth management unit, which oversees $110 billion in Philadelphia. “Whether it’s a sustainable rebound is still in question. I’d prefer they were buying.”

Insiders Sell

Insiders from New York Stock Exchange-listed companies sold $8.32 worth of stock for every dollar bought in the first three weeks of April, according to Washington Service, which analyzes stock transactions of corporate insiders for more than 500 institutional clients.

That’s the fastest rate of selling since October 2007, when U.S. stocks peaked and the 17-month bear market that wiped out more than half the market value of U.S. companies began. The $42.5 million in insider purchases through April 20 would represent the smallest amount for a full month since July 1992, data going back more than 20 years show. That drop preceded a 2.4 percent slide in the S&P 500 in August 1992.

http://pragcap.com/sold-to-you

As we mentioned earlier in the week, insider buying has been non-existent. Even more alarming is this: insider selling is at its highest level since the bear market began. Are you buying? If so, you might just be buying from the very CEO who runs that company. Fill out those Form 4’s ladies and gents. You might run out of suckers (ahem, buyers) before long!

http://pragcap.com/more-on-insider-selling

I recently wrote about reports that insider selling was at record highs and buying was practically non-existent. The selling has become even more alarming in the last week and the buying has slowed to an absolute trickle. Below you’ll find the list of latest insider buys and sells. The sells are staggering with the amounts ranging from $3MM to $63MM (and I was only able to copy one page). The buys, on the other hand, are meager and range from $100K to $635K (the $800K purchase is a few months old and shouldn’t be in the data). You’ll also notice that the screen came up with just 18 total purchases vs 170 total sales (the lowest of sell screen data were sales of over $400K which is not shown here due to the large size of the results).

Sell chart here : http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/sales.png

Buy chart here : http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/buys.png

 

[shag]

i dont want to be rude metric but maybe u should change yr name to imperial(or stick).
u'd hope tonights labour budget has been pruned well by its design being undertaken at a very dark period economically, and treasury scared the daylights out of them during this period.
labour in nz certainly made it hard for bussinesses to prosper, taxes, but worse, red tape upon red tape.
anyone any ideas on what bombs could be exposed to plunge the market, now the banks appear to generally seem like they will muddle thru this incident.
surely nowadays things like stagflation and such u should be able to engineer yr way out of?

 

[Aussiejeff]

surely nowadays things like stagflation and such u should be able to engineer yr way out of?

No engineering degree necessary.

Just SPEND, SPEND, SPEND.

It is the path to true happiness and eternal wealth for us all.

Believe.....

 

[explod]

No engineering degree necessary.

Just SPEND, SPEND, SPEND.

It is the path to true happiness and eternal wealth for us all.

Believe.....

Trouble is the engineering got further ingineered and engineered and engineered again and the engineer forgot where go is, so they hiding or getting locked up.

Hows that leg now Aussie old pal

 

[Aussiejeff]

Trouble is the engineering got further ingineered and engineered and engineered again and the engineer forgot where go is, so they hiding or getting locked up.

Hows that leg now Aussie old pal

Ha! Them gingerbeers are a roight ol' mob, aren't they?

Me re-engineared ankle bone is feeling much relieved, now oi've lost 18kg!

Chiz matey...

 

[Green08]

Just SPEND, SPEND, SPEND.

It is the path to true happiness and eternal wealth for us all.

Knew the Buddhist were on to something.

 

[MR.]

insider selling is at its highest level since the bear market began. Are you buying? If so, you might just be buying from the very CEO who runs that company. Fill out those Form 4’s ladies and gents. You might run out of suckers (ahem, buyers) before long!

Now that's also funny.

Wouldn't happen to WBC, bought some last week to play with. Directors appeared all ok.....

%&*$% $#%@& what the? When did she sell..... not "last week" classic..

 

[Sean K]

The market will be back to the same level that this thread started shortly.

 

[MR.]

Nothin suprises me anymore .......... GRR rrrrrrrrrr......

 

[Gundini]

The market will be back to the same level that this thread started shortly.

Around 6300....

Surely you jest Kennas...

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Nouriel Roubini thinks we will avoid a depression, or at least that the odds of it are much lower than previously.

Roubini says he doesn’t see much in the way of “glimmers of hope” other economists have noted. Unemployment, capital investment, and exports are all worsening, and while there are a few signs of stability in housing, it’s not much. Overall, he figures, the odds of a prolonged “L-shaped” depression have fallen to less than 20%, from about 30%, thanks largely to the efforts of this administration and, to some extent, the last. He expects global contraction of 2% this year, and expansion of about 0.5% next year, “so small it’s going to feel like a recession still.”

Still, he adds: “I don’t worry as much as six months ago about a near depression.” From the man who has been called Dr. Doom – or, as he prefers, Dr. Realistic – that’s practically cheery.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/256661/a_conversation_with_nouriel_roubini


An interesting interview. He thinks the recession will end later in the year and a very slow recovery starting from next year.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1118149823&play=1

 

[MrBurns]

See what Chris Leithner says.

From his newsletter -

1. Has the All Ordinaries Index “hit bottom”?
2. What is its “fair value”?

I believe neither that it’s hit bottom nor that it’s close to a bottom. The course of its descent to – and the level of – its eventual nadir depend partly upon the extent to which the AOI’s earnings fall; and that, in turn, hinges partly upon the severity of the recession. Earnings peaked in October 2008 at $489, and by March 2009 had shrunk to $365. If they revert to their long-term trend, then ca. 40% of this distance has been traversed. Of course, just as observations “overshoot” above a trend, they can also “undershoot” below it.

Given how we came to this pass, where Australia now stands, what the government is doing to us and what may lie before us, it’s difficult to conclude that stocks are cheap and easy to believe that they remain dear. True, the AOI is less overvalued now than it was, but “less overvalued” is not the same as “undervalued.”

Accordingly, Leithner & Co.’s plans include the possibility that an environment marked by recession and stagflation (like the one that plagued the early 1970s to the mid-1980s) prevails during the next several years.

In such a climate, the fair value of the All Ordinaries Index would be ca. 1,700-2,300. That implies a fall of ca. 70% from the Great Bubble’s maximum and the harshest bear market in Australian history. Furthermore, taking 2,000 as the AOI’s “bottom” and assuming a long-run growth rate of 7.5% per annum, ca. 17.5 years will pass before the Index returns to its Bubble maximum of ca. 6,850. If so, this will be the most fraught recovery in Australian history

Interview here -

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTFLM2KdPD4