Imminent and severe market correction

[dhukka]

The spread between Corporate Bonds and Government Bonds are blowing out once again. As the risk for holding a corporate bond is perceived higher, the yields will often increase to entice buyers to holding a bond with the higher risk.

As the bond market is a snapshot of the wider credit market, large market moves downward seem probable in the next few weeks.

It's a good point gfresh. Credit spreads are widening, the latest fed senior loan officer survey shows that financial instituions are still overwhelmingly tightening credit standards. Banks need to refinance huge amounts of debt and are borrowing record amounts from the Fed.

The credit markets are telling a different story from the equity markets. To some extent extent, equities have been keying off oil but a fresh round of credit concerns will trump the benefits of lower oil IMO.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Interesting read there dhukka, esp the bit about credit card loans, or lack off! The US consumer is toast?

Should be an interesting week to test the nerves of the bravest equities bull and gold bugs alike, some big swings going to happen? The credit crunch just took another turn for the worse - everybody looking to re-cap but the money spigot is dry & no one trusts anybody else - not good at all!

Bail outs & bankruptcies bandwagon!

 

[Kauri]

I thunk there is one more major bank in the good ole us of a that will fail!!!... not too far away neither.... and after the inevitable reaction... the yank tank may get the inside running in the G1. International Recovery Stakes.. aaahhh.. maybe more lemmings to the slaughter???.. now... who to short..

mmm :drink:...

Slainte
..............Kauri

 

[CanOz]

I thunk there is one more major bank in the good ole us of a that will fail!!!... not too far away neither.... and after the inevitable reaction... the yank tank may get the inside running in the G1. International Recovery Stakes.. aaahhh.. maybe more lemmings to the slaughter???.. now... who to short..

mmm :drink:...

Slainte
..............Kauri

Anyone care to guess which big US bank could be next? Anyone worried about any? I'm worried about one, but i don't know if should be or not?

There are short patterns showing up everywhere again, i missed a few goodies last night but i'm loaded tonite!

Cheers,


CanOz

 

[wayneL]

Please don't let it be Citibank! Or all us IB users are screwed.

 

[CanOz]

Please don't let it be Citibank! Or all us IB users are screwed.

You took the words right out of my mouth. Wayne, or anyone else care to contemplate that out loud?

C.Oz

 

[dhukka]

Anyone care to guess which big US bank could be next? Anyone worried about any? I'm worried about one, but i don't know if should be or not?

There are short patterns showing up everywhere again, i missed a few goodies last night but i'm loaded tonite!

Cheers,


CanOz

Interesting topic given one of today's big stories:

Ex-IMF economist sees large U.S. bank collapsing:

Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, reportedly said Tuesday that a large U.S. bank will collapse in the next few months. "We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks," Rogoff told a conference in Singapore, according to a Reuters report.

I reckon Citi will survive but in a much different format. Parts will be split up and sold off IMO.

My money is on Washington Mutual (WM). Absolutely up to their necks in Alt-A doodoo, looking down the barrell of massive losses for at least the next 18 months (if they can stay in business that long).

 

[davo8]

Obviously Fannie and Freddie are toast. But if you want to see something scary, take a look at the CMBX spreads. It's not just that the junior tranches are over 3,000 bps (that's 30%, guys!), but some of the AA spreads went up 150bps just over the weekend.

http://markit.com/cmbx.jsp?Index=CMBX-NA-AA+4

By the pricking of my thumbs,
Something wicked this way comes.

 

[Kauri]

More leemings to the slaughter... down 10% in todays trading already...
and I also wonder if Fred and Fan will go the way of Northern Rock????

Cheers
.............Kauri

 

[Sean K]

and I also wonder if Fred and Fan will go the way of Northern Rock????

Cheers
.............Kauri

Looks like it.

What are the Russians up to here?

I wonder how going under will effect this cunning investment?

MOSCOW, Aug 19 (Reuters)

Russia is still buying debt issued by U.S. agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac <FNM.N> <FRE.N> but on a smaller scale than before, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told reporters on Tuesday. Kudrin said the ministry considered other investments in its portfolio were currently riskier than Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt. Declining to be quoted directly, Kudrin added Russia would not have made a loss even if it had sold its entire holdings of bonds issued by the two U.S.

 

[qmanthebarbarian]

What are the Russians up to here?

Ex KGB boys still peeved they were defeated without a shot being fired.

Majors are calling oil cash costs at 80/barrel and OPEC cutting production if oil falls to 90/barrel to support oil price. Its like Jenga at the moment - and those KGB boys have itchy fingers and a fixation with the old testament...

:couch

 

[dhukka]

Looks like it.

What are the Russians up to here?

I wonder how going under will effect this cunning investment?

MOSCOW, Aug 19 (Reuters)

Russia is still buying debt issued by U.S. agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac <FNM.N> <FRE.N> but on a smaller scale than before, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told reporters on Tuesday. Kudrin said the ministry considered other investments in its portfolio were currently riskier than Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt. Declining to be quoted directly, Kudrin added Russia would not have made a loss even if it had sold its entire holdings of bonds issued by the two U.S.

My guess is that equity holders will be wiped out and bondholders will be made whole. Why? Because so much of the debt is owned by foreign governments and it was bought on the understanding that it had the implicit backing of the US government. The US would have some very pissed off foreign governments to contend with if they wiped out bond holders.

If you look at the losses coming down the pike the equity is already worthless. That means the current share price is simpy a call option on the future.

I think the Treasury will step in and issue some kind of preference shares with their dutiful citizens money and nationalize these farcical instituitions once and for all.

 

[Aussiejeff]

My guess is that equity holders will be wiped out and bondholders will be made whole. Why? Because so much of the debt is owned by foreign governments and it was bought on the understanding that it had the implicit backing of the US government. The US would have some very pissed off foreign governments to contend with if they wiped out bond holders.

If you look at the losses coming down the pike the equity is already worthless. That means the current share price is simpy a call option on the future.

I think the Treasury will step in and issue some kind of preference shares with their dutiful citizens money and nationalize these farcical instituitions once and for all.

Oh dear. They might then have to rename the US the USS? (United Soviet States)



AJ

 

[dhukka]

Obviously Fannie and Freddie are toast. But if you want to see something scary, take a look at the CMBX spreads. It's not just that the junior tranches are over 3,000 bps (that's 30%, guys!), but some of the AA spreads went up 150bps just over the weekend.

http://markit.com/cmbx.jsp?Index=CMBX-NA-AA+4

yep, commercial real estate is toast and so are some of the regional banks that hold boat loads of it on their books. For those who have never seen these indexes before, basically the best way to think about it is that up is down. The CMBX is quoted as a spread, so when the spreads increase the bond prices are falling.

 

[dhukka]

Just on the topic of possible bank failures. If we include investment banks I think Lehman could be history before any of the aforementioned banks.

Lehman in Deep Trouble

 

[Sean K]

Just on the topic of possible bank failures. If we include investment banks I think Lehman could be history before any of the aforementioned banks.

Lehman in Deep Trouble

It's a lottery now IMO.

They'd be all sleeping very poorly at the minute.

 

[gfresh]

Off the charts. Yeah, I was just about to suggest that Lehman is the prime candidate (so to speak, boy I'm funny).

This has direct impact too for Australia, as they're the ones that packaged up a lot of these securities and sold them to many of our local councils and charities, under such lovely names as "Federation", "Kokoda", "Tasman", etc. It is really ****ty that our charities have to suffer, but unfortunately all is wise only in hindsight.

$4bn would be massive, 50% of losses incurred so far, in one quarter.. showing that we're getting into the meatier end, but nothing to indicate anything is getting better.

The gap between yields on two- and 10-year notes reached the widest in more than 10 weeks as investors favored shorter maturities, more sensitive to the Federal Reserve's interest- rate policy. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. may post $4 billion in writedowns when it reports fiscal third-quarter earnings, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts said.

...

Lehman may mark down some of its $61 billion of mortgage and other asset-backed securities after benchmark residential and commercial mortgage-related indexes declined by as much as 20 percent, New York-based JPMorgan analysts led by Kenneth Worthington wrote in a report yesterday. Lehman, based in New York, has reported writedowns and credit losses of $8.2 billion in the past 12 months, according to Bloomberg data.

 

[Kauri]

Just on the topic of possible bank failures. If we include investment banks I think Lehman could be history before any of the aforementioned banks.

I thunk there is one more major bank in the good ole us of a that will fail!!!... not too far away neither.... and after the inevitable reaction... the yank tank may get the inside running in the G1. International Recovery Stakes.. aaahhh.. maybe more lemmings to the slaughter???.. now... who to short..

mmm :drink:...

Slainte
..............Kauri

Yep.... possibly more leemings to the slaughter.. .. turned out a nice short..

Cheers
............Kauri

 

[CamKawa]

Just on the topic of possible bank failures. If we include investment banks I think Lehman could be history before any of the aforementioned banks.

Lehman in Deep Trouble

On the ABC midday news today this topic was mentioned though the news reader didn't mention a banks name specifically lots of video shots of Citi were shown. Whether or not they were trying to suggest something here I don't know.

 

[Kauri]

The Wall Street Journal website reports that Freddie Big Mac and fried was forced to offer unusually rich terms to investors in a $3bn auction of its fries yesterday, fuelling concerns about a possible bailout for the mortgage giant and its sibling, Fannie Mae.

Cheers
..........Kauri