Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Imminent and severe market correction

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explod said:
Well we dont' want to spoil your secret but assertions if made need to be backed up by some evidence. If you cant' back it up dont post it, simple.

I think gold is going to go through the roof, if I could not back it up with reasoning (and I can and do) I would be stopped in my tracks by the moderators.

And probability, a little less certain than earlier in the day, going a bit weak at the knees perhaps ?
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Have you forgotten that this is a forum for sharing opinions and discussing thoughts??? I simply stated my opinion, you obviously disagree... note taken ;) as for evidence, only time will tell.... weak in the knees??? NEVER!
 
ShareIt said:
Have you forgotten that this is a forum for sharing opinions and discussing thoughts??? I simply stated my opinion, you obviously disagree... note taken ;) as for evidence, only time will tell.... weak in the knees??? NEVER!
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Opinions without some substance to fill the holes will sink. Problem is they can sink others.

Time does not produce evidence but hindsight, and we can all be wise with that.
 
explod said:
Opinions without some substance to fill the holes will sink. Problem is they can sink others.

Time does not produce evidence but hindsight, and we can all be wise with that.
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Well, a trader should always do their own research before jumping in on someone elses opinion... oh, as for gold, my opinion is that it has more to drop short term.
 
ShareIt said:
Well, a trader should always do their own research before jumping in on someone elses opinion... oh, as for gold, my opinion is that it has more to drop short term.
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Well it is going up as we speak so thats where it is going short term, which is a reason, the current trend. What is your reason for it going down?

Another reason why it is going up is that many descerning investors realise that the market is bearish so they want to hedge against it.

How about some rough ideas like that to back up your assertions which are no more than crap at this stage of the discussion.
 
explod said:
Well it is going up as we speak so thats where it is going short term, which is a reason, the current trend. What is your reason for it going down?

Another reason why it is going up is that many descerning investors realise that the market is bearish so they want to hedge against it.

How about some rough ideas like that to back up your assertions which are no more than crap at this stage of the discussion.
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In a very nice way, I would like to go in more detail but it would take me a while to explain and get a chart happening, perhaps I can get to it on the weekend:)... yes, it is going up and it will go up a tad more $920 - $940 is my projection and then reverse to $840, perhaps lower... again, this is all speculation;)
 
There will me a major correction, every one agrees that market mechanisms such as securitisation are "broken" whilst there are trillions and trillions of dollars tied up in securitised debt in the world. All the US Fed has done is apply a bandaid and allowed the problem to become bigger rather than let Bears Stern start the process of unravelling the mess.

What I want to know is when OZ will acknowledge our out of control foreign debt:

Fraser/Howard left AUD$20B
Hawke/Keating left AUD$160B
Howard/Costell left AUD $600B and they had a "debt truck" driving around the country side saying that Keating was a fool!

Debt is currently increasing at about $60-$80B per year and accelerating!

Make no mistake, Australia is in serious trouble. Digging holes in the ground (and destroying our environment) will not keep the wolves from the door forever.

OZ foreign debt + a major global correction + our lack of any skill (other than digging holes) = ......... well it's too scary to contemplate actually!
 
ShareIt said:
because that would be giving away my trade secret.... but time will tell, nothing is ever 100%.... but through my analysis, there is a strong probability of another bull run soon (July - Aug about)... :2twocents
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US Consumer confidence at 25 year low, house prices crashing, unemployment on the rise, inflation up and you have "evidence" for a bull run? No bottom in sight but you're predicting recovery?

If you mean commodities and energy then could be, but if you mean financials or consumer, look for really bad news later this year. The real buying opportunities for those who still have capital will be next year.
 
davo8 said:
US Consumer confidence at 25 year low, house prices crashing, unemployment on the rise, inflation up and you have "evidence" for a bull run? No bottom in sight but you're predicting recovery?

If you mean commodities and energy then could be, but if you mean financials or consumer, look for really bad news later this year. The real buying opportunities for those who still have capital will be next year.
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At this stage I can only see it being a short bull run to the old highs and perhaps a little higher... but I still think we have a few months until it starts:2twocents
 
Hi,

Let me see, when is the best time to invest, is it

A/ when consumer confidence is at a 25 year high or a 25 year low??

B/ House prices making record high after record high, or after they have crashed???

C/ When the market is making record highs or when good stocks are 40% off there highs???

Twenty years ago we had Keatings Banana republic, We could not sustain our foreign debt of ~$160b, the thought of ~$600b was laughable the world would call in our loans long before that.:rolleyes:

In twenty years time there will be plenty of people complaining of debt of probably over $2.4T for Australia. Of course everybody just knows that it is not possible to get there because the world will call in our loans before then.:p:

After saying all that though, it will not just be a smooth ride up, I would be expecting a pullback over the next month or so as many good stocks are looking a little overbought after there 20-30% rises in the last 2 months.

brty
 
MoneyNeverSleeps said:
There will me a major correction, every one agrees that market mechanisms such as securitisation are "broken" whilst there are trillions and trillions of dollars tied up in securitised debt in the world. All the US Fed has done is apply a bandaid and allowed the problem to become bigger rather than let Bears Stern start the process of unravelling the mess.

What I want to know is when OZ will acknowledge our out of control foreign debt:

Fraser/Howard left AUD$20B
Hawke/Keating left AUD$160B
Howard/Costell left AUD $600B and they had a "debt truck" driving around the country side saying that Keating was a fool!

Debt is currently increasing at about $60-$80B per year and accelerating!

Make no mistake, Australia is in serious trouble. Digging holes in the ground (and destroying our environment) will not keep the wolves from the door forever.

OZ foreign debt + a major global correction + our lack of any skill (other than digging holes) = ......... well it's too scary to contemplate actually!
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We are never going to get out of Debt while our money is based on Debt.

For anyone who would like to EDUCATE themselves on our Money and where our Money comes from, I'd recommend watching the following Video's(Most of the videos are based on the US Monetary System which has been investigated much better that the Australian Monetary System, but we don't appear to be any different to the US):

Money as Debt ==> http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279

The Creature from Jeckyl Island ==> http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6507136891691870450

Money Masters ==> http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-515319560256183936

Fiat Empire ==> http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=5232639329002339531

If everyone paid off all their Debts, THERE WOULD BE NO MONEY IN THE ECONOMY.
 
Well well, a 'computer snafu' resulting in an incorrect rating led to an interesting comment.

I wonder if the dis-affected subprime victims will latch onto that and sue the rating agencies too... or are they already!

"Moody's is simply telling the truth slowly, and there's more truth to be told," said Janet Tavakoli, a consultant and president of Tavakoli Structured Finance in Chicago.

"Up until now I thought the rating agencies were incompetent rookies in structured products," Tavakoli said. "Now I'm suspicious that they may be crooked."

Agencies like Moody's Corp (NYSE:MCO - News), McGraw-Hill Cos. Inc.'s (NYSE:MHP - News) Standard & Poor's and Fimalac's (Paris:LBCP.PA - News) Fitch Ratings have been under pressure by investors, regulators and critics for the past year for incorrectly rating subprime mortgage debt.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080521/moodys_shares_glitch.html
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MoneyNeverSleeps said:
"When the collapse comes, they can depend on the government? I don't think so, gold is our only Refuge." Yevhen, The Italian Job. :eek:
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Can you eat gold? (I suppose you could sprinkle gold dust on corn grits to add flavour?)
Can you put gold in your petrol tank? (We already have "liquid gold", I suppose?)

Yeah. Seems gold would be very useful if/when the financial world collapses .....
 
Aussiejeff said:
Can you eat gold? (I suppose you could sprinkle gold dust on corn grits to add flavour?).
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LOL...... Yes its a common garnish on chocolate cakes. But it has no flavour :brille:
 

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"The main thing to keep an eye on is the QQQQs. They have pulled the market higher for the last few months. If they move through the 200 day SMA, we've got a big problem."
http://www.bonddad.blogspot.com/
I thought that if stocks were above the 200 day SMA that they were outperforming and part of a bull market trend.So why would the author of the above quote say ,"We've got a big problem?"
 
did anyone see george soros talking about global markets on Dateline last night? Couldnt argue with a billionaire philantropist
 

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