Imminent and severe market correction

Cyber Man · 7 May 2007

Stop_the_clock said:
So you can only find 1 example of a year out of many years that May has not had a correction, the odds are stacked againts you my friend I need more examples to convince me...can you do some more research please and post more evidence to support your case.

Are you talking about the Aus share market? What do you mean by "correction"? More than 10% down? More than 20% down? or just the normal fluctuations?

hacheln_mice · 7 May 2007

Based on 'contrarian' thinking, when idiots at Merrill Lynch start touting BHP as potential private equity target , you know the market is closer to the end of its recent run rather than its start.

That said, I don't believe there will be a crash. What is it with these emotionally charged descriptors . If there is a 1987 style move, I'd be fully leveraged and buying up everything I can.

In terms of "sell in May and go away", here's some Dow analysis: http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/sell-in-may-and-go-away-a-look-at-the-dow-since-2001/

krisbarry · 7 May 2007

Today marks the 1st day of the correction

2020hindsight · 7 May 2007

hacheln_mice said:
..In terms of "sell in May and go away", here's some Dow analysis: http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/sell-in-may-and-go-away-a-look-at-the-dow-since-2001/

Thanks for that hacheln, So lol - All you optimists are thinking it's a rerun of 2003?
the pessimists (at least those that are waiting for a correction before re-entering) are thinking 2005 (presumably)
and the reality? - who nose ?? probably 2004 lol
(Please not 2002 lol)

PS NOte that the y axis is not a constant scale. How good was 2006!! or 2003 for that matter.

PS I just find myself asking "If I had asked myself a month ago did I think there would be such a steep graph for the last month, I'd have probably said no,- therefore in my gut, should I not expect a correction, however minor. ? " But I concede, total absence of science on my part. And if I'm wrong and it is another 2003, then I'll get back in in a month or three, and I will have " left some money on the table" - "left a bit of profit for the next guy" lol (yet again )

Uncle Festivus · 7 May 2007

Stop_the_clock said:
Today marks the 1st day of the correction

Can't see that happening STC, maybe end of week for consolidation with US data out. Too many market's coming back from holiday playing catch up this week. For the time being, onwards & upwards. (Did I just put the mocka on the market?)

Kauri · 7 May 2007

Would a big spending consumer friendly election year budget from a govt. that is trailing significantly in the polls presented by a treasurer who knows if his party loses the election that he will spend quite a few years leading the opposition instead of inheriting the Prime-ministership affect the markets at all??

Uncle Festivus · 7 May 2007

Depends how desperate Costello & Howard are, and whether they direct all those excess billions into real productive projects or just fan the inflation & interest rates flames again. These are the ones espousing financial responsibility eg with the interest rates are lower under Liberal etc.

A big chance to reform personal tax this time.

It's funny how the baby boomers are now changing the rules to suit their retirement eg no tax on lump sums.

One things for sure, there will be very few negatives for consumers generally and consequently for the sharemarket. To infinity & beyond

CanOz · 7 May 2007

Kauri said:
Would a big spending consumer friendly election year budget from a govt. that is trailing significantly in the polls presented by a treasurer who knows if his party loses the election that he will spend quite a few years leading the opposition instead of inheriting the Prime-ministership affect the markets at all??

LOL! Naaaahhhhhh!

Uncle Festivus · 9 May 2007

Looks like a bear capitulating - bulls =1, bears = 0

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) - Has Richard Russell finally thrown in the towel on his long-standing bearishness?

Read what Russell wrote on his website:

"We saw something that is extremely rare [on April 20 and April 25], in fact I can't remember ever having seen this before. What I'm referring to is that on those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages -- Industrials , Transports and Utilities - closed at simultaneous historic highs. To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over half a century, this was like a clap of thunder... My take on the situation is that the stock market (and the Dow Theory) told us that an unprecedented world boom lies ahead."

"I believe the markets talk in their own secret language. And when the market does something that has never been done before, that serves as a 'kick in the pants' for me. It's telling me, 'Russell, wake up. Something very unusual is going on. Get up out of your chair -- and pay attention'."

Buffettology · 9 May 2007

Still a bear uncle? How much of your portfolio are you currently holding in cash?

I was a bear, but have turned half/half again, I have my portfolio split around 50/50.

Uncle Festivus · 9 May 2007

Buffettology said:
Still a bear uncle? How much of your portfolio are you currently holding in cash?

I was a bear, but have turned half/half again, I have my portfolio split around 50/50.

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water......
Daytrading mostly, each stock on it's merits, see what happens? Actually, probably less than 20% cash, 70% mostly core portfolio, rest for daytrading longs & shorts.

Kimosabi · 10 May 2007

Home Prices Fall in Rich New York Suburbs Once Immune to Slump

By Bob Ivry
May 9 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. housing slump has hit New York City's richest suburbs.

The average price in Westport, Connecticut, home of chief executive officers Herbert Allison of TIAA-CREF and Jeffrey Kindler of Pfizer Inc., and actor Paul Newman, fell 8.2 percent to $1.56 million in the first four months of 2007 from the same period last year, according to multiple listing service data. In Chappaqua, New York, where Bill and Hillary Clinton live, properties sit on the market an average of seven months before they sell, up from five months a year ago.

Wealth and excellent credit have until now spared bedroom communities in New Jersey, Connecticut and New York's Westchester County from declines in home prices. Now the tightening of credit in response to rising subprime defaults has disrupted the real estate food chain, bringing the national housing slump to Manhattan's doorstep. Prices fell as much as 18.8 percent this year in 15 of the 24 areas in which data was collected.

``People who may have bought their first home may not be able to do so now, and that stops some of the movement,'' said Doug Werner, a broker at William Pitt Sotheby's International Real Estate in Darien, Connecticut.

``Whales eat plankton. If the plankton disappears, what will happen to the whales?''

Rest of the article can be found here ==> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&refer=home&sid=aHBopkXhEA24

Anyone have any ideas what happens when the house prices of the Wall Street Elite start dropping?

nizar · 10 May 2007

Kimosabi said:
Anyone have any ideas what happens when the house prices of the Wall Street Elite start dropping?

Dont think it matters much as the Wall street Elite bonuses are always rising

bean · 10 May 2007

Forum: International Markets 24th-April-2007, 11:59 PM
Replies: 212 Imminent and severe market correction
Views: 7,547 Posted By bean
Re: Imminent and severe market correction

People are looking at China. Look at the US. The markets over there are in the process of blowing a top. DOW 13500 by next week anyone
Whatever it reaches as its final blowoff and then retractment...

To those who think I post rubbish half the time why is everyone starting to get worried abou the US market toppin or blowing off.
I am sorry if I jump ahead of myself

vert · 11 May 2007

dow down 147 points, could this be the start and its friday - profit taking?
cci 20 fallen below +100 which signals end of current trend

dj_420 · 11 May 2007

quite possible

i am set either way now, have my core long term portfolio and around 30% cash. so havent missed any gains this year and ready for some falls.

if i sold long termers would be up for some rather large CGT, which not prepared to do.

bean · 17 May 2007

DECISION TIME IS HERE

US MARKETS I called a high on 9/5
DOW is still making new highs???

Lets look at some US markets closing prices and dates
Nasdaq high 9th may 2576 today 2457
S&P 500 high 9th may 1513 today 1501
Dow Transports high 8th May 5218 today 5126
Dow Utilities high 7th May 531 today 530
NYSE composite high 9th May 9828 today 9825
NYSE international 100 high 4th & 9th May 7050 today 7003
S&P small cap 600 index high 9th May 433 today 427

I could continue with the list but I think the picture is clear

Gold is falling/correcting
If US Gold Indexes which are following US markets are at a decision point. The DOW if it makes a new high tonight may start to turn some of the other US indexes into making new highs therefore giving strength to the overall market.
Gold and Gold indexes if follow the direction of the general market could break to the upside.

If I am correct and the 9 th May was the high in US Markets (except the Dow - 30 stocks) and Gold is correcting
Expect tonight down in everything!!!!!
Or double tops made.

But if the US markets start making new highs
tonight / tomorrow night
Could I turn bullish??

Uncle Festivus · 17 May 2007

bean said:
If I am correct and the 9 th May was the high in US Markets (except the Dow - 30 stocks) and Gold is correcting
Expect tonight down in everything!!!!!
Or double tops made.

But if the US markets start making new highs
tonight / tomorrow night
Could I turn bullish??

Possible, it could either go up or down, or sideways, so sort of makes it a bit clearer.

True, it's (the DOW) starting to defy logic at this rate of advancement so another 200 point retracement is on the cards.

bean · 17 May 2007

Uncle Festivus said:
True, it's (the DOW) starting to defy logic at this rate of advancement so another 200 point retracement is on the cards.

That sort of retractment tonight would be enough to turn a few of those US Indexes I mentioned BEARISH.
(The Nasdaq for example would drop 2% plus easy in the blink of an eye)
And would possibly make it to hard for the DOW to pull them back up.

Who knows two down days in a row and the rest would turn BEARISH
technically speaking.
And the DOW flattened

But just have to wait and see as I said if the DOW rises and pulls the others with it I may turn BULLISH

Will know tonight and tomorrow night.

tech/a · 17 May 2007

bean said:
That sort of retractment tonight would be enough to turn a few of those US Indexes I mentioned BEARISH.
(The Nasdaq for example would drop 2% plus easy in the blink of an eye)
And would possibly make it to hard for the DOW to pull them back up.

This is tongue in cheek---isnt it.

Who knows two down days in a row and the rest would turn BEARISH
technically speaking.
And the DOW flattened

Technically speaking---perhaps you could expand on your definition of a technical confirmation that a market (any market) has turned bearish.
Particularly after a 2 day move.

But just have to wait and see as I said if the DOW rises and pulls the others with it I may turn BULLISH

Perhaps you could also expand on technical bullish qualifications.

Will know tonight and tomorrow night.

The only thing we will know for certain are the closing prices.

Imminent and severe market correction

Cyber Man

hacheln_mice

krisbarry

2020hindsight

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Uncle Festivus

Kauri

E/W Learner

Uncle Festivus

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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Buffettology

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Kimosabi

nizar

bean

vert

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dj_420

bean

Uncle Festivus

bean

tech/a

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