Whiskers
It's a small world
- Joined
- 21 August 2007
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Having maxed out many of their 1.4 billion credit cards, between 2001 and 2006 Americans tapped $1.2 trillion of their housing equity. Business Week reports that the middle-class debt-to-income ratio is now 141 percent, double that of 1983."
Australia is on borrowed time, whatever the price of coal and iron ore. Household debt is 175pc of disposable income, up in La La Land with England, Ireland, Denmark, and the Dutch. The wholesale funding market for mortgages that underpins this nonsense remains frozen.
Paulson has been talking .......
You would think economists and or economic jurno's could do a much better job of inentifying there apples and oranges!
The decline in new-home sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 526,000 was much weaker than the 577,000 pace expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.
Make some hay, but stand close to the farm gate for a quick exit. Still no sign of the fat lady.
Yes, how often have we seen this in the recent past -
As for financial journo's, the majority are the ones who were too dumb to be economists.
I read articles like this
U.S. Economy: Sentiment Weakens More Than Anticipated (Update3)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aeW44YtQ_2s8&refer=home
and then find the DOW is up 42.91
The headline confidence figure fell to -7.4 in April from plus 1.2 in March, with a dramatic slump in the export order books to -14. This is flashing near-recession warnings. David Owen, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said Europe would soon be engulfed by the twin effects of a "collapse in export volumes" and a slow motion credit squeeze. "The wheels are coming off the eurozone economy," he said. BNP Paribas warned clients yesterday that the "decoupling story" was no longer credible. "We see Europe in the early stage of a credit crunch, and if we are right credit supply will shut down," it said. Key governors of the European Central Bank began to back away from their hawkish stance of recent weeks, clearly disturbed by the market perception that they are mulling a rate rise to choke off price rises. Inflation has reached a post-EMU high of 3.6pc on surging oil and food costs.
"If Tech Companies Are Beating Earnings, Why Isn't NASDAQ Breadth Improving?so far the market doesn't seem to want to go down... it keeps rallying back to the highs and is showing a more positive outlook to break upside....
Is A Recovery Likely? said:By Colin Twiggs
April 26, 12:30 a.m. ET (4:30 p.m. AET)
Recoveries And Inflation
Investors may wonder how the market can possibly rally when the economy resembles a punch-drunk boxer hanging on the ropes. The answer is fairly simple: the big money is not betting on the economy it is betting on inflation.
The Fed is printing money as fast as it can ”” in order to save the banking system from annihilation. Nobody gets up off the canvas without assistance after taking a 1 trillion dollar sock on the jaw. While the Fed can provide liquidity, there is only one way to protect banks from falling asset prices which threaten to wipe out their reserves. That is to create inflation ”” to reverse the fall in asset prices.
Investors and financial markets response to low interest rates from the Fed is to borrow all that they can and invest in real assets in anticipation of rising prices. This becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy as demand for real assets exceeds supply, driving up prices.....and the next asset bubble is born.
The Fed does not mind, as investors mop up surplus money in the system and prevent it from flowing through to consumption ”” where it would affect consumer prices. Economists thought that they had found the holy grail. They could stimulate the economy without any significant impact on consumer prices. Only to discover that it is a poison chalice. There is no quarantine fence around asset bubbles and eventually higher asset prices flow through to consumers. When average workers can no longer afford to buy their own home, upward pressure on wages starts to rise. And when asset bubbles burst, as they are prone to, causing severe shocks to the economy, the Fed's only available response is to..... you guessed it ....... print more money and start the next asset bubble. The ever-increasing shocks are eroding the ability of the economy to recover and grow in a stable, predictable environment.
So where is the next asset bubble likely to occur? With wounds from collapse of the housing bubble still fresh, there are only two viable alternatives: stocks and commodities.
Inflation targeting by central banks is a major cause of bubbles. Inflation targeting is based on CPI which is a poor measure of the loss of purchasing power of the dollar. Why have house prices doubled in the last 5 years if inflation is averaging between 2 and 3 percent? Not to mention gold, oil and most other commodities. By using CPI as a measure, the Fed responds to crises long after the real damage is caused. Ever tried to steer your car while looking through the rear window to see where you are going? No wonder the Fed crashes into the sidewalk every time they encounter a bend in the road.
If you believe this is all too complicated and best left to a bunch of academic economists and self-interested bankers to sort out, allow me to remind you that the definition of stupidity is to repeat the same action and expect a different result.
If you agree with this opinion, please share it with your friends and colleagues.
"If Tech Companies Are Beating Earnings, Why Isn't NASDAQ Breadth Improving?
There is one problem with the rally theory. Market breadth on the NASDAQ stinks:
Market breadth hasn't moved higher with the market, and
the new highs/new low number has been decreasing as well.
Why isn't NASDAQ breadth improving? Fundamentally it should be."
Charts on the Nasdaq are available at-
http://www.bonddad.blogspot.com/
Well, one way or the other this week is probably going to be decisive in terms of the direction of the market in the short to medium term.
The first Bush rebates will be deposited into taxpayers accounts from today and the Fed meeting to argue, it seems over the extent of any further cuts.
Last time I expected 50bp, but they gave 75. This time I would have expected 25 to about wind up the cuts, but they have since presented a gloomier picture for the near future. However there seems to be some dissent about the size of the cuts.
I'm starting to lean a bit to a 50bp cut to appease the Bush camp to kill off recession talk quickly.
That should give the markets a decent thrill.
Mmmm...you confuse me Whiskers - if things are going so well as you imply, then why do you expect a further rate cut. Surely the bottom has been priced in now? Shouldn't they start to resume their 'fight' against inflation again?
I think a lot of people will be surprised (as in :fan)before this week is out. Negative G-D-P!
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