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Imminent and severe market correction

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Well, now we know what the yanks have been doing when they're depressed and can't got out to the Mall's! :eek:

J&J Posts 40 Percent Jump in 1Q Profit
Tuesday April 15, 10:21 am ET
By Linda A. Johnson, AP Business Writer

Strong Sales, Exchange Rates Help Boost Johnson & Johnson's Profit by 40 Pct in 1st Quarter


TRENTON, N.J. (AP) -- Health products maker Johnson & Johnson reported a 40 percent jump Tuesday in its first-quarter profit, due to higher sales of consumer products, favorable exchange rates and a research charge a year ago.


The New Brunswick, N.J.-based maker of contraceptives, medical devices, baby care items and prescription drugs reported net income of $3.6 billion

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080415/earns_johnson_johnson.html
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Kauri said:
Can't track it down but a report doing the rounds suggests that the odds of an Aussie recession are increasing... so tis would be a rumour, if the powers that be.. in bold blue.. let it through...

.............kauri
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It is a US investment bank report saying that new Zealand was likely to go into recession while Australia faced a 40% chance of doing so...
Cheers
...........Kauri
 
Whiskers said:
Well, now we know what the yanks have been doing when they're depressed and can't got out to the Mall's! :eek:

"Strong Sales, Exchange Rates Help Boost Johnson & Johnson's Profit by 40 Pct in 1st Quarter"
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Nah, I'd say it's got to do with a new product line, and a new customer base. I mean, which high end employee from a US bank wouldn't want no more tears?

But apparently, this is the favourite of the new product line:

nomoretearsbearstearns.gif
 
chops_a_must said:
Nah, I'd say it's got to do with a new product line, and a new customer base. I mean, which high end employee from a US bank wouldn't want no more tears?

But apparently, this is the favourite of the new product line:

nomoretearsbearstearns.gif
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Well, yeah... I'll pay that too. :D
 
Are they just talking it down or are they actually being realists? The Dow etc have yet to factor in the recession, let alone company downgrades - a generational short trade.
Wall Street faces the growing risk of an equities bloodbath in coming months as the credit crunch spreads to the wider economy and earnings crumble, according to a pair of grim reports issued by Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo.

David Kostin, the chief US investment guru for Goldman Sachs, expects the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities to plummet a further 15pc over the "near term" as companies scramble to lower their outlook for this year.
"Although only a few firms have reported first quarter results, early signs are awful. We expect a swath of lowered profit guidance," he said in a research note published today, entitled 'Fasten Seatbelts'.

Scott Anderson, chief economist at Wells Fargo, is equally pessimistic, describing the bullish views of some market players as "bordering on delusional".
"The equity markets have not yet priced in a prolonged downturn in economic growth in my opinion. We are still in the early stages of the credit crunch. Earnings estimates for the second half of the year are likely still far too high," he said.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...08/04/14/bcngold114.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
 
Whiskers said:
Well, now we know what the yanks have been doing when they're depressed and can't got out to the Mall's! :eek:
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The comparables look good because last year J&J took a one-off charge of $807m. Strip out the one-off and eps was up 8% from a year ago. Strip out currency gains from a weak dollar and earnings are closer to flat.
 
Hey, Citi only scrubbed out 6Bln... all systems go for a rally on that great news... :rolleyes:
Cheers
..........Kauri
 
Kauri said:
Hey, Citi only scrubbed out 6Bln... all systems go for a rally on that great news... :rolleyes:
Cheers
..........Kauri
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LOL Great news, that's chicken feed (apparently:eek:), let's crack open a bottle of Dom. :cautious:
 
I found this chart at http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/032508_homeprice_webcast.pdf which was released on the 25/03/2008 by S&P.
Some questions I’m contemplating at the moment are: Is the worst of the sub-prime mess behind us? How much bad news has the market already factored in? There's bottom pickers aplenty saying the worst is behind us. Should I be buying in? Is Wall St going to spill over to Main St? GE's results weren't good but Google's were.
 

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CamKawa said:
I found this chart at http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/032508_homeprice_webcast.pdf which was released on the 25/03/2008 by S&P.
Some questions I’m contemplating at the moment are: Is the worst of the sub-prime mess behind us? How much bad news has the market already factored in? There's bottom pickers aplenty saying the worst is behind us. Should I be buying in? Is Wall St going to spill over to Main St? GE's results weren't good but Google's were.
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Untill there is clear evidence of a bottom I would stay clear. Some would say we are still holding up which directly opposes the other.

The sub-prime mess is only one single aspect of other issues to play out. $117 dollar oil, increasing interest rates. In Australia higher currency deterring overseas holiday makers, less money in pockets, descreationary spending will curtail, leasure centres will close, more job losses. ete. etc and so on we could go with an expanding list of repercussions.

It is a time to watch and wait, reduce debt and at least preserve cash.
 
“This is the time to buy stocks.” - R. W. McNeal, market analyst, New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

Meanwhile, back in the real world, if that still exists???
 

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I was impressed by the little burst of activity on the 200 just after lunch the other day . Nice little spike for a blink , perhaps the starting point for next week .

I saw an interesting side piece on a Swiss bank withdrawing from FX , fixed interest and card activities in the US last week . But it seems this type of activity is proving to be distressful for a few European Banks with regards to US spending habits , it's quite possible this will be the next string of news to start the bear spins off again .

Personally I like to see the US regurgitating and getting rid off the muck out of its system , the purge may take a little longer , but if it gets out , they could avert having to stay in constant offence / defence mode . Banks will drag out the news and hold the fort if they go by the usual script .

Even if extimates of 20 the 30 Trillion are off a few , it's an awful amount of money to have to revalue with the current Fed policies in place , the has to be a dilutionary effect in products traded against its reserve status .

It may be a crude point , but world food aid is adding to price increases , something not generally brought out , the supply there can't keep up and will need refunding to manage the same quantities it has in previous years .

Instead of planting corn , they'd be better of planting chic peas ...........

Then Ben could use his helicopter to drop fertilizer instead .
 
Uncle Festivus said:
“This is the time to buy stocks.” - R. W. McNeal, market analyst, New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

Meanwhile, back in the real world, if that still exists???
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Hey Uncle, are you still having doubts!? ;)

ithatheekret said:
Even if extimates of 20 the 30 Trillion are off a few , it's an awful amount of money to have to revalue with the current Fed policies in place , the has to be a dilutionary effect in products traded against its reserve status .
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Here's a good exercise for some enthuseastic economist. :cautious:

How much of that 'estimated' debt and or losses goes away over time as the stock market recovers and when the US property market recovers?

Then Ben could use his helicopter to drop fertilizer instead
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Hasn't Ben been spreading 'economic' fertiliser... at least to some? :eek: :rolleyes:
 

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Whiskers said:
Hey Uncle, are you still having doubts!? ;)
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Doubts about the end of the 'crisis' & the resumption of 'good times'?

Actually no, if anything it (negative news numbness) will only make things worse. It's clear the prime money is not going where it's intended but to continued money shuffling - some new deckchairs for the Titanic perhaps.

You have to remember that for the Dow to just be breaking even in inflation adjusted terms it should be several thousand points higher than where it is now. So investing in the US has been and will be an atrocious investment for foreigners, and is now an even worse proposition.

So not only do we have the recession not priced in but the possibility of more bad news is also getting priced 'out'. The real economy will start to re-exert itself soon enough.

We can still play the game & go long, I'm just not blindly bullish.
Oil = $117
 

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