Imminent and severe market correction

[explod]

My charts only go back four years... is this the channell that it is bouncing off??
Cheers
...........Kauri

Yep, that's about it. (The INO charts wont copy I'm afraid) I see 73 the top and 70.5 the bottom as at this time and a drop to 69.5 due soon. A drop in the Fed rate will certainly push that along.

Money is losing purchasing power by the day now. Oil price will hit pockets hard but is just one of many basics compounding the calamity exponentially.

 

[Whiskers]

Well, the Boe has finally cut... 25bp.

Looks like the ECB is gonna hold... until the Fed cuts again? They will have to cut eventually though, won't they?


I think I predicted big Wal would hold it's own... actually might out perform a bit.

Those tight inventory controls!

See... even the weather and timing of easter affect the economy. It's not all 'sub primes' fault! :

Wal-Mart sales soft, but ups profit forecast
No. 1 retailer's March sales at the lower end of its guidance, but tighter inventories help boost earnings outlook for current quarter.

CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: April 10, 2008: 7:55 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Wal-Mart Stores on Thursday blamed an early Easter and weather woes for March sales that were at the lower end of its guidance.

However, the world's largest retailer upped its fiscal first-quarter profit guidance, citing tighter inventory levels that helped it to reduce additional discounts in the period.

Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) said sales at its stores open at least a year, a key measure of retail performance known as same-store sales, rose 0.7%, which was at the lower-end of its guidance of being flat to up 2% for the month.

The retailer said a shift in the holiday calendar, which resulted in the Easter holiday coming about a month earlier than last year, negatively hurt sales last month.

"[With] Easter coming much earlier this year, the traditional selling period for the holiday was shorter," the company said in a statement.

Wal-Mart also blamed cooler weather in March for weak sales of spring and summer clothing. But the retailer said sales of grocery, health and wellness and entertainment products were stronger in the month.

For April, the company expects same-store sales to be up 1% to 3%. "This guidance is slightly higher than our comparable sales guidance of the previous two months, which has been flat to 2%," said Wal-Mart chief financial officer Tom Schoewe.

Wal-Mart also raised its first-quarter profit forecast to between 74 to 76 cents a share from its previous estimate of 70 to 74 cents a share.

Analysts polled by earnings tracker Thomson Financial had expected the retailer to earn 72 cents a share for the quarter.

 

[Whiskers]

CNN Money BREAKING NEWS: The U.S. trade deficit surprisingly rises to $62.3 billion. More soon.

Surprisingly!

 

[Kauri]

I think I predicted big Wal would hold it's own... actually might out perform a bit.

Those tight inventory controls!

See... even the weather and timing of easter affect the economy. It's not all 'sub primes' fault! :

I think that Big Wally is amongst the 20% that have managed not to dissapoint of the chains that have reported so far.. meanwhile to add to the 80% that have come up short, Gap"s 18% decline in March and the fall in Nordstrom of 9.1% for same store sales as consumer demand continues to collapse. Target sales fell 4.4%, much more than the market expected.
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[wayneL]

Well, the Boe has finally cut... 25bp.

What is now evident is that the intention of the BoE MPC is diametrically opposed to their official remit of targeting inflation. The MPC is now directly targeting house prices. A 180% rise is quite OK, but a 2.5% drop is totally unacceptable.

Savers screwed again.

 

[Whiskers]

I think that Big Wally is amongst the 20% that have managed not to dissapoint of the chains that have reported so far.. meanwhile to add to the 80% that have come up short, Gap"s 18% decline in March and the fall in Nordstrom of 9.1% for same store sales as consumer demand continues to collapse. Target sales fell 4.4%, much more than the market expected.
Cheers
.........Kauri

Yeah, wasn't surprised with Target. They're not as 'hungry' and adaptive to market conditions as big Wal. Luxury brands also not surprising.

Be interesting to see the market shares of the 20% and 80%. Probably give a better picture of the state of chain retail sales.

 

[Kauri]

What is now evident is that the intention of the BoE MPC is diametrically opposed to their official remit of targeting inflation. The MPC is now directly targeting house prices. A 180% rise is quite OK, but a 2.5% drop is totally unacceptable.

Savers screwed again.

Maybe they read (and believe what they read) the papers..
Cheers
...........Kauri

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/

 

[dhukka]

I think that Big Wally is amongst the 20% that have managed not to dissapoint of the chains that have reported so far.. meanwhile to add to the 80% that have come up short, Gap"s 18% decline in March and the fall in Nordstrom of 9.1% for same store sales as consumer demand continues to collapse. Target sales fell 4.4%, much more than the market expected.
Cheers
.........Kauri

These Chain store sales comps are mostly pretty nasty.

Saks..................-2.9% vs +3.5% expected
JC Penney........ -12.3% vs -11.7% expected
Nordstrom.......... -9.1% vs -8.0% expected
American Eagle.. -12.0% vs -8.9% expected
Target...............-4.4% vs -2.7% expected

Even Wal-mart disappointed +0.7% vs +1.0% expected

On the positve side:

Costco.......... +7.0% vs +5.9% expected
Aeropostale... +2.5% vs +0.6% expected

 

[wayneL]

Maybe they read (and believe what they read) the papers..
Cheers
...........Kauri

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/

I don't have a lot of time for Anatole Kaletski, even though he has now joined the bear camp... he's a t0sser of the first order.

This clown, up until about six weeks ago was an uberbull, treating bears as heretics, tin foil hatters and doom-mongers. He has only jumped the fence in the face of looking like the jerk he truly is.

Note how he hedges himself in the article with the old "small island, and limited supply" nonsense.

Should give the livestock a bit of a start though.

 

[Kauri]

I don't have a lot of time for Anatole Kaletski, even though he has now joined the bear camp... he's a t0sser of the first order.

This clown, up until about six weeks ago was an uberbull, treating bears as heretics, tin foil hatters and doom-mongers. He has only jumped the fence in the face of looking like the jerk he truly is.

Note how he hedges himself in the article with the old "small island, and limited supply" nonsense.

Should give the livestock a bit of a start though.

Couldn't agree more, most of the media could pull off a U-Turn on the M3 in rush hour without breaking wind, .....butt... inthe modern age the media shapes our perceptions a lot more than peeple realise.. and as such, I sit, and observe... and wait.. and.. aaahh, my glass is empty, I can see the de bouton.
Cheers
............from me.. and hymn..

 

[brty]

Hi,

Nothing but doom and gloom in the headlines, billions lost in banking, housing and consumer sales, the world as we know it is coming to an end. It is as clear as the nose on my face....

But the SPoos go up...... hmm. ( at present anyway)

bye

brty

 

[wayneL]

Couldn't agree more, most of the media could pull off a U-Turn on the M3 in rush hour without breaking wind, .....butt... inthe modern age the media shapes our perceptions a lot more than peeple realise.. and as such, I sit, and observe... and wait.. and.. aaahh, my glass is empty, I can see the de bouton.
Cheers
............from me.. and hymn..

Yep agree there. That's why I still read him. There are able analysts who I like to read as food for thought.. and then there are the sentiment markers. Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference.... sometimes not. :

I reckon Jeremy Clarkeson has a better idea than Anatole... and is amusing to boot.

 

[wayneL]

Hi,

Nothing but doom and gloom in the headlines, billions lost in banking, housing and consumer sales, the world as we know it is coming to an end. It is as clear as the nose on my face....

But the SPoos go up...... hmm. ( at present anyway)

bye

brty

Eat, drink, be merry and... uhh, buy stocks; for tomorrow we die.

 

[Kauri]

Yep agree there. That's why I still read him. There are able analysts who I like to read as food for thought.. and then there are the sentiment markers. Sometimes it's hard to tell the difference.... sometimes not. :

I reckon Jeremy Clarkeson has a better idea than Anatole... and is amusing to boot.

unless you drive a volvo... :knightrid

 

[brty]

Hi,

The media is telling us one thing, the market is saying another. Which one is usually correct??

bye

brty

 

[wayneL]

Hi,

The media is telling us one thing, the market is saying another. Which one is usually correct??

bye

brty

Never fight the tape... just don't nail the scrip to the bottom drawer.

 

[Kauri]

Hi,

The media is telling us one thing, the market is saying another. Which one is usually correct??

bye

brty

BofA has come out and said that big fella's bottom is in and has recomended .. in their words.. overweight...

and GS has also come out (closet??) and said that the crisis is in the 3rd or even 4th Qtr.. and that they can see the light at the end of the tunnell.. (the last time I saw a light at the end of the tunnell it made quite an impression, there was a 6000horse English Electric sitting right behind it!!).
So don't think... just buy, buy. bye, bye.
Cheers
............Frontiersman

 

[IFocus]

I think that Big Wally is amongst the 20% that have managed not to dissapoint of the chains that have reported so far.. meanwhile to add to the 80% that have come up short, Gap"s 18% decline in March and the fall in Nordstrom of 9.1% for same store sales as consumer demand continues to collapse. Target sales fell 4.4%, much more than the market expected.
Cheers
.........Kauri

Would it be fair to say Wal has the cheaper products over all....

 

[Whiskers]

Looks like Merrill Lynch is topping up the cash kitty.

Geez, I'm glad I didn't get involved in margin lending!

Fresh collapse hits finance industry
Michael Sainsbury | April 11, 2008

THE nation's financial sector has suffered a fresh blow with administrators appointed to boutique lending group Lift Capital.

The appointment last night follows the $1.3 billion collapse of Melbourne stockbroker Opes Prime and continuing woes of another broking firm, Tricom.

Tony McGrath and Joseph Hayes of corporate recovery and advisory firm McGrathNicol were appointed as voluntary administrators of Sydney-based Lift Capital Partners Pty Ltd as well as Lift Capital Nominees No 1.

The scale of the latest collapse is not yet clear. Lift operates as a margin lender, with about 1600 clients owning investments predominantly in listed shares and managed funds.

A secured creditor, understood to be Merrill Lynch, has a fixed charge over the listed shares secured against funds advanced to Lift Capital...

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23522184-5014006,00.html

 

[Whiskers]

US consumers hit the brakes
April 11, 2008

CONSUMER spending drives the US economy, and latest sales figures show retail sales at stores that have been open for at least a year fell by 0.5 per cent in March, compared with a year ago.

The results, the weakest March showing in 13 years, are based on reports from 37 national retailers.

Consumer spending represents 70 per cent of the gross domestic product in the US - and is the largest contributor to economic growth, according to the National Retail Federation.

Consumers have bailed out the US economy in the past, but yesterday’s numbers are more evidence that the US shopper is tapped out.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23522276-5014006,00.html

Well, they are supposed to be tightening their belts to keep up with debt repayments, aren't they!

The lesser of two evils I think. Got to be better than maintaining consumer spending and perpetuating more loan defaults.

The results, the weakest March showing in 13 years...

Hmmm. Probably more like easing back to moderation after years of excess eh!