This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

Imminent and severe market correction

Hi,

Thanks for the explanation TH, but I hope you can see my point that the money is not destroyed in your example, it has just been spent elsewhere. It is also a contract, not a derivative.

This confuses me as I cannot think of any derivatives traded through any exchange that are not contracts....

Also cannot see your point re money, if you are talking perceived value that would make sense at least to me


Again surely this is perceived valuation not hard currency? Until the position is closed its an open contract so you are talking about valuation there is no "money" it hasn't gone any where, if the position is closed then you are talking about money and its when money flows.


I remember an interview with Linda Linda Bradford Raschke where she was down $100K as she traded the 87 crash but was confident she was on the right side of the market which she was and made profits in the end.

At the time she was married to a market maker who later explained to Linda the enormous risk she took as as it was likely she could have done the lot due to counter party risk......I do not know the details but believe its not all so secure as you believe.

You also give an example on what appears to be a low volatility event



Now I am really confused as I haven't seen this

I use MF to if they fall over then there would be chaos world wide......
 
Yes I know what you said and it was wrong. It might pay to look beyond the media headlines and go straight to the source - The Institute of Supply Management.

Yes dhukka I'm aware of the ISM site. I don't want to get into a nit-picking arguement. What you say is right to a point (technically), but the most important aspect of the survey which is most widely followed is as I posted and as explained by the reference in both bloomberg and (below) from Econoday.


Misnomer maybe, but that's just how it is. The business activity index 52.2 has become the main number from the survey that the market is looking for and the ISM Non-Mfg Survey is known for.
 

Whiskers, it's good to have the positive logic bias but the data coming out doesn't support the above (assumptions?). Without going over all the facts again, it's getting pretty obvious to all but the Wall St hacks that the US is in reccession.

We just got the 3rd month of job declines, so a quarterly trend is developing there. Manufacturing jobs declined by 48,000, the biggest drop since July 2003. Construction jobs fell by 51,000. These are the backbone sectors, with flow on effects for the entire economy.

Personal incomes? Up 0.5% and working longer for it. Price inflation eg food and fuel, easily exceeds wage growth, so effectively going backwards at a rate of knots, hence consumer spending subdued to put it mildly.

Be careful how you interpret housing data. "Brown Harris Stevens report: Sales volume in Manhattan… dipped 1% in Q1’08 from Q1’07. But showed a jump in median price due to a fourfold increase in the number of sales over $10M". Even the financial firms on Wall St are feeling the pinch.

Those who used their homes as ATMs, withdrawing cash via home equity loans, are now maxing out their credit cards just to make ends meet. Food stamp ques are growing.

I think the main reason why stock prices are going up is because the Fed is paying for it - both indirectly and via the extended repo's etc. The extra liquidity doesn't look like it is making it to the real world (as in lower mortgages), just getting churned back in on itself with equity money shuffling again.

And the fact that investors have developed negative news numbness - any negative news is greeted as a clearing of the decks and or ignored even. This is the denial phase? The UK is starting to look even worse, if that's possible.

The bear is still in control, as per the monthly SP500 chart. Benny Bullwinkle will have to pull more than rabbits out of his hat to get out of this one .
 

Attachments

  • sp500monthly1.gif
    12.4 KB · Views: 550
And an undeniable trend emerging for Employment. Similar to that other 'R' period.
 

Attachments

  • us 3 month nfu.png
    3.7 KB · Views: 511
And an undeniable trend emerging for Employment. Similar to that other 'R' period.

Certainly is and has been obvious for a while now. It will interesting to see the spin from the CNBC permabulls to these numbers.
 

Attachments

  • NFP Mar08_3mma_ASF.jpg
    110.3 KB · Views: 516
Fitch Ratings has decided to end its part in the ruse of the AAA ratings attached to the Monoline Insurers or at least one of them.

 
Fitch Ratings has decided to end its part in the ruse of the AAA ratings attached to the Monoline Insurers or at least one of them.

Hrmm..... well it's a about time someone finally put a pen through MBIA....

Lets see if S&P will finally submit to the pressure. By the way, their bonds are effectively pricved at junk -I still don't understand how a AAA company prices it's debt like a cash burning tech company!!!!

Cheers
 
A few 'real' casualities in the last couple of weeks courtesy of MGETA

Firstly 3 Airlines



How about a chain of jewelery stores?



A restaurant chain?



Or a bunch of nursing homes?

 
I just read that Barclays is considering a bid for the uberbank... thought it was in the FT but can't find it to post a link...

Cheers
.........Kauri
 
Posts are slowing in this thread due to -nothing to offer?can't believe what is happening in the markets with all the bad news?the bulls have finally taken over?all the bad news is out?

"U.S. benchmark indexes closed little changed on Monday, but analysts said the failure of the Dow Jones industrial average .DJI to breach the 12,700 level for the third time in two months did not bode well for further rises in the index.
"What really means something is AMD coming out and cutting yesterday and what is significant is we came off yesterday after zooming higher on all stocks and closing at the lows of the day," said City Index analyst Tom Hougaard.

"At this point, the news out there is pretty bearish across the board and (any rises) are just a question of a correction in a market that is deeply, deeply oversold," he said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/mark...408?rpc=44&pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0
 
Posts are slowing in this thread due to -nothing to offer?can't believe what is happening in the markets with all the bad news?the bulls have finally taken over?all the bad news is out?

I think you have pretty well summed it up there sassa, albeit a bit inquisitively.

There are always company collapses, restructures, employee lay-off's etc, but a point I have been trying to make is too much, in fact pretty much anything that happens has been bundled into the same 'credit crisis' 'housing crunch' 'recession' or whatever D & G basket.

Sure, the housing price bust and credit crunch has had flow on effects right across the US economy and most of the world, but to attribute that as the main cause of all the changing dynamics in the world, for me is nonsense. A lot of dynamics change over time. Certain situations may speed up the enviornment for change.

For exampe, the US airline industry is a fragile industry because of lots of players trying to carve a hole in the market where players have been cutting costs, by minimising maintaince etc. Rising costs such as a more than doubling of aviation fuel is the main cause of problems there. Higher oil prices was always going to happen regardless of the housing or credit situation.

Sure the credit crisis has an effect and the falling USD has increased oil costs a bit more, but as I said above it is not the driving factor with the problems in the airline industry and much of the US or world economy.

Whiskers, it's good to have the positive logic bias

Thanks uncle... of course it is.

but the data coming out doesn't support the above (assumptions?).



Personal incomes? Up 0.5% and working longer for it. Price inflation eg food and fuel, easily exceeds wage growth, so effectively going backwards at a rate of knots, hence consumer spending subdued to put it mildly.

But the point I was making was that personal spending went up .5% and consumer spending only increased .1%. So even allowing for price inflation consumers saved more than the previous month. I see your point that costs are increasing and people are working longer... but in the short term for me the combination of working longer and saving more is a good sign for stabalising or reducing the rate of mortgage defaults and bankruptcies.

Isn't it probable that any recession will be short and shallow before darting into inflation before we know it? What will be the inflationary effect when the housing industry turns around?


I agree there, well for the most part ... and I don't think the Fed had any choice but to buy time to allow things to pan out less disruptdly.

I am currently of the view that all the problems in the US economy won't fall out in this correction. I think the markets (including the USD) will recover moderately over the coming months in the natural cycle of things because the US has made or in the process of making the most substantial overhaul of their economy and finance laws since the great depression.

Having said that, I don't doubt they will experience more economic issues in the future, but I expect they will be less of an economic force in the world economy.
 
Posts are slowing in this thread due to -nothing to offer?can't believe what is happening in the markets with all the bad news?the bulls have finally taken over?all the bad news is out?

=0

Didn't thunk that bad news was welcomed.... aahh well.. heres some.. potentially.. The Euro is unlikely to be buoyed by the news another German bank may be in trouble. Speculation in the market at present suggests a smaller bank has been closed by the BAFIN. (Will post a link when.. and if... it hits the wires...)

Also I don't know how long the Eurozone is going to be propped up by Germany, without them the bottom would fall out of their pants.. I thunk..
and I still thunk German banks in general are a big risk going forrard..

Cheers
..........Kauri
 

In fact from what is coming through in the last week, and what is being accepted as OK ( the crap) is making us so gobsmacked that we are speechless.
 
Didn't thunk that bad news was welcomed.... aahh
..........Kauri
Well, maybe it is time to have a bit of a laugh.
It's within the probability spectrum that we've turned the corner and the market will climb the wall of worry. To truly appreciate that potential reward, however, we must understand the magnitude of the attendant risk.
In our never-ending effort to provoke thought and provide smiles, we offer 35 reasons why the March lows were an excellent trading opportunity but not the ultimate bottom.(I have included a few-rest available at link below.)
.Maltese dogs are still favoured over Rottweilers by the elite Park Avenue crowd.
.Hank Paulson has yet to melt a reporter's face with his cold, hard stare.
.Homebuilders have yet to offer two-for-one deals.
.Alan Greenspan is still getting paid to speak.
.If the market can't rally with a weaker dollar, what's it going to do when the greenback rallies.
.Traders are buying upside calls like they're going out of style.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/35-signs-market-hasnt-hit/story.
 
Posts are slowing in this thread due to -nothing to offer?can't believe what is happening in the markets with all the bad news?the bulls have finally taken over?all the bad news is out?

On the contrary, the bad news is just clicking into gear. If transports are considered a good leading indicator of economic activity, what is UPS telling us?

 
Bold Headlines Rates on 30-, 15-year mortgages rise.

By a miniscule, but they are still lower than a year ago.


So where are the massive interest rate rises that were supposed to happen!

Is this a sign of mortgage rate rises running out of puff... demand dropping, holding back and consumers telling banks where to stick their rate rises?

A point I made earlier, Banks should soon wake up that forgoing interest rate rises to recoup their losses will be a better proposition than raising rates aggressively, forcing forclosures and having to write down their balance sheets agressively.

I wonder how many are thinking lower profits will be less disasterous than massive continuing write downs.
 

In the US... probably...
Cheers
.........Kauri
 

Who was expecting massive interest rate rises? Creating straw men again Whiskers? Are you suggesting that because the interest rate on a 30 year mortgage is 50 bps lower than a year ago, after the Fed has cut 300 bps that that is a positive? Or that the rate on a 30 year mortgage is 50bps higher than it was just 3 months ago despite 225 bps of cuts over the same period?
 

Certainly better than the rate rises that some headlines and people were speculating would/might happen when mortgages reset in the first qtr.

I mean we all know how greedy those bludy banks are.
 
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...