Imminent and severe market correction

[kransky]

with all this going on, equity markets are going to tank, gold and commodities will tank as funds sell up to try to survive..

so how can we take advantage of the goings on? get on gold once the fund selling stops?

assume huge volatility and thus stick to short term trades?

 

[wayneL]

assume huge volatility and thus stick to short term trades?

That's my strategy FWIW.

 

[explod]

with all this going on, equity markets are going to tank, gold and commodities will tank as funds sell up to try to survive..

so how can we take advantage of the goings on? get on gold once the fund selling stops?

assume huge volatility and thus stick to short term trades?

Please tell, where will the funds put the money from the sell up. Not into US dollars because they are (as they are) going to tank also. Where is the safe haven for the chaos now. South East Asia just this last week have decided they want nothing more of US treasuries.

So please tell

 

[wayneL]

Please tell, where will the funds put the money from the sell up. Not into US dollars because they are (as they are) going to tank also. Where is the safe haven for the chaos now. South East Asia just this last week have decided they want nothing more of US treasuries.

So please tell

Just a thought, but could "all this money" not be all that much, due to the enormous leverage at play?

 

[explod]

Just a thought, but could "all this money" not be all that much, due to the enormous leverage at play?

Yep an implosion of almost naught. 40 to 100 hedge funds ????

And on the other foot that was thought to be tangible, we have chanted for some time on another thread that "cash is trash"

 

[Awesomandy]

Please tell, where will the funds put the money from the sell up. Not into US dollars because they are (as they are) going to tank also. Where is the safe haven for the chaos now. South East Asia just this last week have decided they want nothing more of US treasuries.

So please tell

As an educated guess, I would think that most of the cash will end up as cash sitting in an account somewhere or in some sort of fixed interest instruments.

There are definitely some hedge funds under a lot of stress at the moment, (collapse is probably imminent) - including some that are equity based (which does not have a direct exposure to the sub-prime problem).

 

[Wysiwyg]

$500,000 plus 7.25% p.a.

 

[wayneL]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/li...tml?in_article_id=549650&in_page_id=1770&ct=5

God Save The Queen

 

[qmanthebarbarian]

Ouch!

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, the European bank with the highest losses from the U.S. subprime crisis, may ask shareholders to approve a capital increase of as much as 16 billion Swiss francs ($16.1 billion), Sonntag newspaper said, citing people it didn't identify.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7OD4I9MoGVU&refer=home

 

[ithatheekret]

Please tell, where will the funds put the money from the sell up. Not into US dollars because they are (as they are) going to tank also. Where is the safe haven for the chaos now. South East Asia just this last week have decided they want nothing more of US treasuries.

So please tell

Infrastucture still has plenty of room for growth , there's a few resource bottlenecks that could attract some deep pockets .

........ and there's a choice of areas too , for the risk reward ratios .

China , Australia ...... Russia .

 

[Kauri]

the rumours are now getting some press... but the figures being bandied about seem a tad over the top???..I thunk..

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,543932,00.html

Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Uncle Festivus]

As an educated guess, I would think that most of the cash will end up as cash sitting in an account somewhere or in some sort of fixed interest instruments.

There are definitely some hedge funds under a lot of stress at the moment, (collapse is probably imminent) - including some that are equity based (which does not have a direct exposure to the sub-prime problem).

Pity the yanks - sell your shares and park it in an account getting 2.5%. Going backwards but at least not loosing the lot. At least for Oz we can get 7% plus no sweat, but not for long I think. Lock it in?

Did somebody mention hedge funds? Is now the time to deride the previous high flyers and financial wiz pretenders now that they are having to work for a living, and their investors loosing possibly their life savings in the process?

One industry expert told The Sunday Telegraph: "This is just beginning. Somewhere been 40 and 100 hedge funds will liquidate shortly. It's a bloodbath and it will get worse."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/ma...08/03/30/cchedge130.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

I think markets are still in shocked denial about what's going on here, as it appears that we are entering some sort of new phase (the calm before the storm??) in the contagion whereby the hedgies, derivitives, credit cards, auto subs etc are not only feeding on themselves in a negative feedback, but the problems are now substantially worse in a global sense, at least in the typically 'western' economies.

These same economies won't be taking the same sort of volumes from the Asian slave labour states, so I would envisage a slow but steady flow on effect to our economy, looking forward some 9 -12 months? Super is showing a negative return for the last qtr - get used to it. I dropped my contributions to the bare minimum 12 months ago.

Yet before that arrives our market has to deal with it's own insidious meltdown from within ie brokers going bust and forced stock liquidation.

But there are some big winners out of all this, just have to know how to play the game . And be patient while sitting on a war chest of cash.

Global market meltdown stage 2 imminent?

 

[Whiskers]

"This is just beginning. Somewhere been 40 and 100 hedge funds will liquidate shortly. It's a bloodbath and it will get worse."

Just out of curiosity, with all the alarmist headlines, how many companies/funds have gone down and out as a direct result of the 'credit crisis'?

A lot of egos and balance sheets have been hurt along with many home buyers, but unless I'm missing something I reckon I can easily count them on one hand.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Just out of curiosity, with all the alarmist headlines, how many companies/funds have gone down and out as a direct result of the 'credit crisis'?

A lot of egos and balance sheets have been hurt along with many home buyers, but unless I'm missing something I reckon I can easily count them on one hand.

You might have to grow some more fingers Whiskers

It remains to be seen if all this is just part of the 'normal' cycle ie a natural purge of the excesses or something more ominous?

In fact, sites such as Implode O Meter are chock full of casualties which says something in itself ie these are not 'normal' times.

Hedge funds are collapsing. This is a new occurrence. Over 31 major hedge funds have imploded taking billions of dollars down with them.

Peloton Partners
Focus capital
Falcon
CSO
Sailfish
Polar
Deephaven
Absolute Capital
Cooper Hill
Pirate
and the list continues...and more are to fall...

(US only?)

Mortgages -
http://ml-implode.com/

Banks -
http://bankimplode.com/

Hedge Funds -
http://hf-implode.com/

 

[Trembling Hand]

Luv it!!

Implode -O-meter.

Classic!

 

[RichKid]

You might have to grow some more fingers Whiskers

......................
Banks -
http://bankimplode.com/

Hedge Funds -
http://hf-implode.com/

Thanks! roflao, you've made my day, check this out, via the bankimplode site, brokers and banks are an odd bunch:

Citi upgrades Lehman?

To start your weekend off with a good laugh, this morning a very troubled Citigroup “upgrades” Lehman another VERY seriously troubled company to “Buy”. It’s like one loser patting the other loser on the back! Wait until next week when Lehman “upgrades” Citigroup to “Buy”.
It’s like the two CEO’s were having their two-martini lunch at the local pub talking about how troubled their credit lines are and how desperate they are for cash. They are both afraid of being the next Bear Stearns……then one of them, in a drunken stupor, says…… “Hey, what if we UPGRADE each other to BUY?” …….. “Brilliant” – says the other CEO.
They give each other a hug – “But wait” says the other…. “What about getting MORE needed money to stay liquid?”…… “Well, we can use the UPGRADE to convince our Middle East investors that things are not so bad. Also – our good buddy Ben will continue to lower the standards at the Discount Window, and if all that doesn’t work – we can always get him to bail us out or negotiate a deal! – but for NOW – lets “Upgrade” each other!”…… they exit the bar…..the Citi CEO makes one last statement “Make SURE you’ve got your Golden Parachute strapped on tight!”

http://marketpreview.blogspot.com/2008/03/mp-32808.html

 

[Whiskers]

You might have to grow some more fingers Whiskers

It remains to be seen if all this is just part of the 'normal' cycle ie a natural purge of the excesses or something more ominous?

In fact, sites such as Implode O Meter are chock full of casualties which says something in itself ie these are not 'normal' times.

(US only?)

Hey Uncle, I don't think this implode O Meter thing qualifies as 'down and out'.

Did you see the qualification?

I'm gunna have to look into this further. :

I might still have enough fingers.

Mortgages -
http://ml-implode.com/

Imploded" lenders: The "imploded" status is somewhat subjective and does not necessarily mean operations are ceased permanently: it can mean bankruptcy filing, temporary but open-ended halting of major operations, or a "firesale" acquisition. The Companies include all types (prime, subprime, or a mix of both; retail or wholesale; subsidiaries and entire companies). Note: Companies listed here may still be operating in some capacity; check with them before making assumptions.

 

[dhukka]

Hey Uncle, I don't think this implode O Meter thing qualifies as 'down and out'.

Did you see the qualification?

I'm gunna have to look into this further. :

I might still have enough fingers.

Let me save you the trouble Whiskers. I've been reading this site for the best part of a year. All the companies or subsidiaries of large companies on the list have gone out of business or been taken out. The only exception are some of the recently listed whihc may not have been officially confirmed.

 

[Whiskers]

Let me save you the trouble Whiskers. I've been reading this site for the best part of a year. All the companies or subsidiaries of large companies on the list have gone out of business or been taken out. The only exception are some of the recently listed whihc may not have been officially confirmed.

Thanks for that dhukka, but I'm still not sure that they all represent 'real' casualities.

For example the Rupert Murdock's of the world are (in)famous for milking cash out of subsidiaries and hanging them out to struggle or die.

 

[chops_a_must]

I think you have missed the point again Whiskers.

Anyway, FWIW, as I wrote on the blog, Australian financials, and I assume world financials, were close to multi year support. And I entered accordingly first thing last week as said here. Not wanting to count chickens yet, but...

Have a breakout from the S&P and Dow by the looks. Regardless of the funnymentals, we are breaking short term resistance, probably clearing out shorts at the same time.

Same time that commodities are breaking down, we are getting definitive, tradeable rallies in the other areas by the looks.

Catastrophe over for the time being...