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Blow-off top in world markets - get ready!
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Fund issues dire equities warning
By Robert Orr
Published: April 3 2007 19:09 | Last updated: April 3 2007 19:09
A leading UK fund manager has sold off about half the equities in the portfolios he oversees in anticipation of an imminent and severe market correction.
Ken Murray, the founder and chief executive of Blue Planet Investment Management, has revealed he has offloaded equities and cut the gearing on the firm’s portfolios to zero in the belief a US economic recession is set to wipe more than 20 per cent from the value of global stock markets.
Blue Planet, a specialist investor in the financial sector with $350m of assets under management, operated three of the four best performing financial funds in the UK last year, according to figures from Bloomberg. Its Worldwide Financials fund was the best performing investment trust in the UK and the world over the last three years. About 25 per cent of Blue Planet’s portfolios are now in cash.
Mr Murray warned the impending market correction was likely to be considerably more severe that either of the two most recent downturns that began in February just past and in April last year.
Mr Murray, who began the share sales two weeks ago after the latest downturn, said a consumer spending slowdown was already under way in the US. Combined with rising inflation and a slowdown in corporate earnings, this would drag the world’s largest economy into recession.
“People don’t want to believe bad things will happen but the market will correct very sharply,” he said.
“It is time to get out of the market and I don’t think it would be unreasonable to expect the market to fall by more than 20 per cent in a very short space of time”.
Mr Murray has built a reputation as one of the UK’s most successful investment trust managers. He has combined his role of chairman and chief executive with an active role as an asset allocator via his position of head of investments.
A leading figure in the Scottish financial establishment, Mr Murray founded Blue Planet in 1994. Prior to that, in 1990, he established the Bank of Edinburgh and led the move to consolidate the UK’s fragmented building societies sector.
Bank of Edinburgh bought the Heart of England Building Society before being swallowed up by Scottish Amicable.
Mr Murray said investors could ill afford to ignore warnings from the likes of Alan Greenspan. The former chairman of the Federal Reserve warned earlier this year that the US faced the risk of recession.
Can't disagree with that.People have been saying this for more than a year now.
Nothing new.
Markets will continue to do what they want.
Rather than try to predict (a useless excercise) what will happen, just BE PREPARED for (all scenarios as to) what may happen and have a plan as to how to trade the price action.
Agree with this too.The crux of the post was that here was obviously a very successful fund manager taking a fairly decisive stance due to fundamentals of the US housing market, which cannot be glossed over by vested interests - it's a timebomb ready to explode with global implications.
I agree with Canaussieuck about the market 'feel', it just doesn't feel right. We are becoming used to daily ranges of up to 50 to 60 points, whipsawing on every bit of news.
On Monday the market tanked because of interest rate fears, Tuesday took the opposite view, Wednesday traded on the fact, so now we have 4 weeks leading to an even higher probability of an increase.
Great for daytraders, but may be hiding a deeper message about global liquidity excesses about to be reigned in in spectacular fashion maybe.
Didn't the article say he was managing $350m. That's not really that much is it? Successful? Is he?The crux of the post was that here was obviously a very successful fund manager
No different to the bulls ramping the market on bubblevision all day long KnobbyAnd since they have sold half their stocks, they are bound to tell everyone to try to ensure a correction ensues.
People have been saying this for more than a year now.
Nothing new.
Markets will continue to do what they want.
Rather than try to predict (a useless excercise) what will happen, just BE PREPARED for (all scenarios as to) what may happen and have a plan as to how to trade the price action.
Didn't the article say he was managing $350m. That's not really that much is it? Successful? Is he?
Just amplifying a point that this is just but ONE dude trying to get his name in the paper, touting his OWN analysis. I just wish we could all get an objective and GENERAL opinion on the state of the world/US economy without some (potential) upstart (with lots of shorts on) encouraging punters to sell with articles like this.
I look forward to reading contrary articles over the next few days written by investors who are all long.
Upstart is obviously a poor choice of words here. He's a pro of course, and I know not much more than the difference in a shiraz from the Coonawarra compared to the Hunter....He has a nice web site too.I'm not sure he's an upstart Kennas -
http://www.blueplanet.eu/blueplanet_investment_trust_uk.184.html
Shorts on? Encouraging punters to sell??
and I know not much more than the difference in a shiraz from the Coonawarra compared to the Hunter....
I wonder how long it will take for markets to truly forget setbacks that occurred quite recently. More likely that we are going to be hit again and quite soon. Outlook does not look any different from when we had the last slide, imho, and so it's stay with 80%+ cash for the time being.
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