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ILU - Iluka Resources

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Oh we delayed the release of guidance a tad.
Here it is _ Shorters get lucky!
 
Iluka Resources flirting with $12, which it last attempted to breach back in late 2013. It's been on a great run since October 2016 having increased in price from $5.50 to around $12. The big question is can it break through $12 convincingly and keep moving higher?

 
greggles said:
The big question is can it break through $12 convincingly and keep moving higher?
Click to expand...

Well, the answer to that question is clearly an emphatic "no". After range trading between $12 and $10.75 for a few months between May and mid-August, the ILU share price took a dive following the release of the company's FY18 results, which didn't actually look that bad to me but must have been below expectations.

Yesterday, the ILU share price touched $9, which served as support in September and November 2017, and it appears that it has done so again this month. Today, Iluka has bounced back to $9.28 and I suspect that we could see a recovery here and a slow climb back to previous highs around $12-$12.25.

 
Iluka has been a good trading stock doing biggish moves up and down, a big stock with lots of liquidity, a big business with shifting CAPEX costs as new mines develop and old mines close, buy cheap be patient and sell near tops and do can do well, 10 year chart below.
~
 
Looks like a double bottom for ILU at $7.00 around Christmas and New Year.

This morning ILU announced the the inaugural Mineral Resource estimate of rutile mineralisation at the Pejebu Deposit in Sierra Leone, which consists of 23.4Mt material at 0.95% in situ rutile, containing 0.22Mt of rutile.

Iluka also released its 31 December 2018 Quarterly Review this morning. I'll reproduce the Key Features section below:



The market liked the report, pushing ILU up 9.7% to $8.24. It's a long way back to those previous highs around $12.25 but at last ILU is heading in the right direction.

 
Follow up from post above.
It's "in the box" at the moment, needs to head to the next target area now. (I hold since break of W.1).

(click to expand)
 
greggles said:
Looks like a double bottom for ILU at $7.00 around Christmas and New Year.
Click to expand...

I know your post was back in January @greggles …. but that may have been one of the best calls of the year

Up over 50% since you called it .... in 6 months ……

I don't hold unfortunately, but buying double bottoms in good stocks after a long down turn is probably a good system to work on
 
Boggo said:
Going the wrong way, go back
Click to expand...

Damn and LOL (in a painful kind of way) ……

Sometimes I wonder why we bother trying to pick Stocks at all

And people say trying to pick "Specs" is difficult!!

For anyone that bought at yesterdays break of the recent high …..

I am annoyed on your behalf even though I didn't … tough game
 

No problem here barney, my stop is still just above my entry and still intact.

Target areas really are areas to be aware of, this is a perfect example of hitting first chart target and then hesitating and either continuing up or turning back. Happens a lot.

Today's drop wasn't evident on yesterday's ILU daily behaviour whereas in the RRL daily chart there was evidence that someone was on to the upcoming news.
 
Boggo said:
Today's drop wasn't evident on yesterday's ILU daily behaviour whereas in the RRL daily chart there was evidence that someone was on to the upcoming news.
Click to expand...

Glad you are still in Bog …. Totally unexpected SP today
 
I had a tight stop on this, breakeven + a bit until the weekly stop moved up to take over.
This mornings opening triggered the alert but it had jumped the stop and the sell price which means I am still in and will probably get stopped out tomorrow arvo on the weekly stop for a loss.

Been having a better than average run so got to expect a hit every so often.

Had an almost identical scenario with RMD back in January where it jumped the weekly stop, I'd been in that for about a year so got out with a significantly reduced profit (am now back in again though).

All part of the process
 

Follow up. It dipped below my weekly stop ($9.19) this morning but then turned up and stayed above it to the close so although holding around $2k in the red I am still in there
 
Boggo said:
Follow up. It dipped below my weekly stop ($9.19) this morning but then turned up and stayed above it to the close so although holding around $2k in the red I am still in there
Click to expand...

Hi Boggo,

So is that a +1 then for weekly systems.
 
Iluka will demerge its Mining Area C royalty business following a capital structure review.

The demerger will result in an ASX-listed Australian royalty company with a cornerstone asset of BHP-operated mining area X iron ore operation.

Iluka intends to retain a 15 per cent shareholding in the new company, which will be headquartered in Perth. It will be effected by a distribution of shares in the new company via an in-specie dividend and capital return by Iluka.

Separately, Iluka reported a full year net loss after tax of $300 million, swinging from a $304 million profit last year. The result was hit by a $414 million writedown from Sierra Rutile and the removal of a $162 million deferred tax asset.

Mineral sands revenue dipped 4.1 per cent to $1.19 billion. Loss per share reached 71¢, compared to earnings per share of 71.8¢ year ago. It declared a final dividend of 8¢ a share, down from 19¢ last year.

The mixed market conditions of 2019 are expected to continue into 2020, it said. It expects to produce 280,000 tonnes of zircon, 230,000 tonnes of rutile and 225,000 tonnes of synthetic rutile. Capital expenditure is expected to be $135 million in 2020.
 
I just flew home from MAC yesterday and I had no idea that ILU had a royalty at MAC..there you go..learn something every day
 
Sell-side analysts value the royalty at as much as $2 billion – and the shareholders think it could be worth even more given the quality of the counterparty (BHP) and movements in bond yields.

The royalty ensures Iluka 1.232 per cent of Australian denominated revenue from MAC and a one-off payment of $1 million per million tonne increase in annual capacity....
 
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