If and when will the money printing stop?

[tech/a]

The price of anything that is consistently wanted but not in unlimited supply, should over the very long run imbed nominal growth +/- any efficiency/deficiency gains in finding or producing.

How much of the 30% is represented by long term imbedding of nominal growth?

How much of the 30% is due to depletion of high grade easily accessible deposits?

How much is simply cyclical price movement to balance off relatively short run supply/demand imbalances? What time period has he referenced to come up with 30%?

30% was an average figure I used across the table.
Some were 80% others 15%
To discuss this in depth I would need the book next to me to reference.
I dont have the time to do this.
Thats why I suggested the two books of reference. I cannot do either book justice writing snippets here.
No can the combination of the connotations of both be adequately explained in bits on a forum.

Im not going to continue answering specifics---as much as I would like to.
Time doesnt allow.
There are those like Mclovin who will champion the opposite view.Thats fine.
Me I have substantial interests which are at risk and I will do what I can to protect or minimise disaster wether it comes or it doesnt. Business and investment wise.

Property is freeholded or cashflow positive to a 10% interest rate.
Ive always had a deep interest in macro economics.
The big picture delievers the Big trends---even if it is negative or stagnant.
No point in fighting the big picture.

As for Dent---Ill listen to a man who got the big picture in JAPAN right.
On Ludwig---Ill also listen to a guy who has studied and recorded what happened in the lead up to 2008
and the aftermath---and now what is STILL sitting there like a time bomb that once lit no amount of money printing will save the financial fraternity.

The choice --- if you chose is personal and you will live by your choices.
All I can do is personally evaluate evidence offered up.
That evidence in its entirety---not snippets---is compelling---to me anyway.

 

[craft]

30% was an average figure I used across the table.
Some were 80% others 15%
To discuss this in depth I would need the book next to me to reference.
I dont have the time to do this.
Thats why I suggested the two books of reference. I cannot do either book justice writing snippets here.
No can the combination of the connotations of both be adequately explained in bits on a forum.

Im not going to continue answering specifics---as much as I would like to.
Time doesnt allow.
There are those like Mclovin who will champion the opposite view.Thats fine.
Me I have substantial interests which are at risk and I will do what I can to protect or minimise disaster wether it comes or it doesnt. Business and investment wise.

Property is freeholded or cashflow positive to a 10% interest rate.
Ive always had a deep interest in macro economics.
The big picture delievers the Big trends---even if it is negative or stagnant.
No point in fighting the big picture.

As for Dent---Ill listen to a man who got the big picture in JAPAN right.
On Ludwig---Ill also listen to a guy who has studied and recorded what happened in the lead up to 2008
and the aftermath---and now what is STILL sitting there like a time bomb that once lit no amount of money printing will save the financial fraternity.

The choice --- if you chose is personal and you will live by your choices.
All I can do is personally evaluate evidence offered up.
That evidence in its entirety---not snippets---is compelling---to me anyway.

My big picture is defiantly different to what seems to be the general consensus .

I do like to give the consensus a bit of a prod when I’m seeing things differently – just to see what it’s really got under the hood.

I hear you on the time aspect of debating it though. –End of the day we position from our big picture perspective and we prosper or not.

 

[McLovin]

There are those like Mclovin who will champion the opposite view.Thats fine.
Me I have substantial interests which are at risk and I will do what I can to protect or minimise disaster wether it comes or it doesnt. Business and investment wise.

Last post...

I'm sure there's a few of us with substantial interests that are at risk. I don't think I'm championing the opposite view, just taking the middle of the road as that's where we always end up. Since the GFC, there has been so much extrapolation and from what I've seen extrapolation is almost always wrong and almost always occurs when we are at the top or the bottom of a cycle. Macro forecasting rarely works because there are too many moving parts in an economy, that's why guys like Dent make entertaining reading on long flights but shouldn't be taken too seriously.

 

[young-gun]

WTF


PMSL

Sorry, was reading a median figure when i typed that, not longest

 

[banco]

Taxation in the us will improve, they're just about to expand their taxable population by 2-3% and the workforce vs the retiree is expanding as well, unlike most other nations. The US should be in pretty good shape in another 30 years or so...

CanOz

You mean the illegals? In terms of US's fiscal health the US would be better off having them stay illegal.

 

[noirua]

Early days where money minting started:

In Sub-Roman Britain and to defend against attacks from the north, some Germanic continentals entered southern and eastern Britain and slowly, over generations, their culture came to dominate, so southern Britain became, over the centuries, England.