Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Relating to today's announcement, this is what I dug up from Cleveland Cliff's webiste. I've highlighted in blue some 'interesting points':

Any comments on the similarites?:) Will be interesting to see what the capex comes out at for the similarly sized Cleveland & Ferrowest projects.



Cleveland, OH””June 19, 2007””Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE: CLF) today announced that it has entered into an alliance whereby Kobe Steel agreed to license its patented ITmk3 ® iron-making process to Cleveland-Cliffs. The alliance, which has a 10-year term, covers use of the proprietary process in the United States and Canada, Australia and Brazil, and may be expanded to include other geographic regions.


Used for the production of high-purity iron nuggets containing more than 96% iron, the ITmk3 process provides the means to create high-quality raw material for electric arc furnaces (EAFs). Steel producers utilizing EAFs currently account for nearly half of North America's steelmaking capacity.


Commenting on the new alliance, Cliffs Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Joseph A. Carrabba stated: "One of Cliffs' major strategic initiatives is to sustain its leadership position in pioneering processes related to metallics. By constructing a commercial-scale facility that will produce iron in nearly pure form, we will further that mission and be able to offer North America's non-integrated steel mills a consistently available and very high-quality domestic metallic feed, which is similar in quality to imported pig iron. Moreover, as Cliffs currently sells the majority of its pellets to integrated steel companies in North America, this opportunity has the potential to open a new market.

"We have been very interested in this technology since successfully testing the process in a pilot plant located at our Northshore facility. The alliance with Kobe moves us closer to realizing our mutual goal of commercializing and exploiting this innovative process."


The Company also announced that the two parties have agreed to participate on a joint-venture basis as strategic equity partners in a 500,000 ton per annum iron nugget facility to be constructed at one of Cliffs' United States mining properties. The timing of this project and the site location will ultimately depend on permitting issues.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

the latest Ann showed that FWL is planning to produce 500,000 tonnes of MPI per annum from Yalgoo @ their indicated price of US$395/tonne, thats roughly close to US$200m a yr.

YT what do u think is the cost ratio for a project like this? the Mkt Cap is indeed low even at current 50c/share.

$200m p.a. US = $250m p.a. AUD (US/AUD 80c)
30 yrs = Gross Cash Flow Total of $7.5Billion

Still I prefer to work with the EBIT of $150/t for 500kt's for 30yrs
= $150 x 500,000 x 30 = $2.25Billion Total EBITDA

Thus I estimate an intial NPV of say $1Billion
The depsoit is most likely to double or tripple in size after speaking to the Chairman, as the intial JORC is from 6-9kms of a total 27-30kms

With Iron Ore unlike others, I think it deserves a higher % of potential NPV due to the fact that Iron Ore/Pig Iron is more stable and is far easier to get funding for, ie Chinese, Japanese, Koreans etc so I'd say 10% of NPV would seem reasonable = $100m = $1.20c FWL


From YT's analysis, even at 50c it means it's got at least another 20% in it; if you take the perth broker's suggestion of 100m, it's got another 200% left in it.

What my broker said was after the PFS if it ALL STACKED UP, IE NPV $1Billion THEN AND ONLY THEN would a 10% of possible NPV seem reasonable/cheap,


I must emphasise I can't believe how well its held up, the really goes to show that holders are not selling and buyers seem to be holding, from what I gather those on ASF who play stocks for a 'quick buck' got out yesterday,

I firmly believe that this stock tick's all the boxes to being a solid development story, if you cast your eyes over the beginings of MMX, GBG, MIS, TFE, AGO or even MGX they all started from humble beginings but in hindsight had the potential to become what they have now,

I will be very surprised if the stock doesn't reach $1 within the next 3 months as I expect the PFS to deliver the goods
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

- Infrastructure amazing, on the main highway to Port Geralton = truck ore no rail! 14kms away from main town of Yalgoo, can use all exisiting port facilities, gas and water run through or near deposit

Could be old news, but it is news to me so I thought I would post it just incase anyone else hadn't seen it:

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20070604/pdf/00726712.pdf

The above is great for FWL even if they don't need a rail transport at the moment to get ore to the docks ... they will definitely have it in the future.

Rail has to be cheaper then trucking it to the docks - more profits for shareholders!
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Advantages
- Management = Ex MIS MD in charge of their Magnetite Project, Excel Coal
- TOP 20 = Hold 80% so very tight
- Capital raisings will be done sparingly = When they issued rights options instead of being free or 1c they were at a 4c cost so company could raise $1m from the rights, sounds very very prudent to me
- Infrastructure amazing, on the main highway to Port Geralton = truck ore no rail! 14kms away from main town of Yalgoo, can use all exisiting port facilities, gas and water run through or near deposit
- Mkt cap tiny vs NPV
- Backed by Martin Place
- Backed by Management and founders of Murchison Metals
- Pig Iron in high demand, much higher than magnetite ore as its a value added product
- Japanese Steel firm Kobe already taking Iron Ore samples, they could easily underwrite the development of Yogi project

FWL really is holding up well, but that was to be expected given the news I discovered, anyway just goes to show what a tight share registry can do as a result of the top 20 holding 80%

The stock opened just above 50c today and now there's over 300k on the bid above 50c!

I can't wait to see the chart in 2 weeks time to see just when and where it consolidated
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

something weird js happened this morning, a big sell order of 136889shares were sitting on 0.55c around 9oclock, i thought someone is trying to cap it. now suddently its been pulled to 0.58c, while the buy order is still down at 0.55c. strange move unless he/she knows the an annoucement is due real soon?:confused:
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Same thing with the oppies this morning the market pressure seems to building on this one could see some nice action this morning going by the pre bidding some people want in out there:)
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Same thing with the oppies this morning the market pressure seems to building on this one could see some nice action this morning going by the pre bidding some people want in out there:)

but the buy orders above 50c isnt particularly strong on the ordinaries, if someone decided to dump, it can easily pull back.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

True UPKA sure is going to be interesting where it sits at 10;30 sould sort the pre bid BS out on a closer look it could be games being played by a few punters who knows hey ..........goodluck today ann around the corner maybe:)
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

it's been bought up big time, with no sellers at all! i think the report has been leaked! good times ahead boys!
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Regarding the weird big order this morning of 130k, looks like its not going to push the price down afterall.
It sure got snapped up quickly.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Well it,s 10;30 some nice action in the heads hey if we see some vol increase it could be on for young and old pre ann pressure on the holders side big time atm happy day :)
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Mate of mine who is a broker in Perth just called me and said get into FWL today! Huh? What am I missing? :cautious:

Haven't been following but just skipped through the thread and sounds good.
Saying that, the sp looks to have run already and I wouldn't normally get in at this point. Probably my mistake, but keeping an eye on it now.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Mate of mine who is a broker in Perth just called me and said get into FWL today! Huh? What am I missing? :cautious:

Haven't been following but just skipped through the thread and sounds good.
Saying that, the sp looks to have run already and I wouldn't normally get in at this point. Probably my mistake, but keeping an eye on it now.

why is he telling u to get into it today? annoucement or something? would be nice to know why the massive rise in SP today on no ann...
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Mate of mine who is a broker in Perth just called me and said get into FWL today! Huh? What am I missing? :cautious:

Haven't been following but just skipped through the thread and sounds good.
Saying that, the sp looks to have run already and I wouldn't normally get in at this point. Probably my mistake, but keeping an eye on it now.


well..don't blink then.

This stock has hardly retraced at all since breaking out since high teens.

Its also soooo tightly held that its more geared as an 'investment' than a 'trade'
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Hey, don't buy on what I posted people!!

Just telling you what he said and he doesn't normally call me about such things. I asked why why why but he said 'gotta go'! So without knowing why, I'm staying out for now. Looks strong but I don't have the balls.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

well..don't blink then.

This stock has hardly retraced at all since breaking out since high teens.

Its also soooo tightly held that its more geared as an 'investment' than a 'trade'

i have a feeling a certain individual or company is accumulating them, taking whatever stock they can find. could be Lion Group, u'll never know..:cool:
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Hey, don't buy on what I posted people!!

Just telling you what he said and he doesn't normally call me about such things. I asked why why why but he said 'gotta go'! So without knowing why, I'm staying out for now. Looks strong but I don't have the balls.

well we know there is an annoucement due sometime this month, so has to be this couple of days. for all we know, and looking at the price action, could be today or next monday. from YT's conservative valuation he has a target price of 60c, bt i reckon its probably double or more of that. we'll only find out with teh annoucement is made. good luck all.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Damn, should have listened! Just hit 75c.

Maybe it is the ann? People seem to want in even at this price?!
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Must go into a halt at this rate. ASX must be all over them at the moment. The ann is expected so they won't get their @arses kicked too hard.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Must go into a halt at this rate. ASX must be all over them at the moment. The ann is expected so they won't get their @arses kicked too hard.

Agreed! Something has leaked.

Still, I guess if this is likely to happen, there's little chance of anyone selling so my order in the low 60's won't get filled.....grrrr. That's procrastination for ya.
 
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