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Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

A bit of lateral thinking here...you can pick up a 3 bedroom house in yalgoo asking price $80000 anyone want to go halves
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Fool said:
There was a good point made tonight though, if it looks like a takeover is going on, the options are the best thing to invest in because they'll still be there in 3 years time.
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Mate, there is NO takeover going on by MMX

The shares held in FWL are director's personal interests i.e MMX is not a shareholder.

Besides, MMX have enough on their plate with future capex. They are not at that stage in their life cycle imo:2twocents

Also, its not in FWL shareholders' interests (even the top 20) for a takeover.

If you want to talk JVs...well thats another matter:cautious:
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Yeah but see MMX ann regarding mitsbishi buying a 50% stake in their iron ore portfolio and they now have an agreement to build rail infrastructure and aquire more interests in iron in the WA area.

So tell me is it coincidence that two major share holders of this growing Iron ore Hound dog happen to be the large shareholders in FWL?

Im not suggesting insider trading but quite often very large shareholders are privy to info that we just dont know or get. Be it directly or indirectly.

Im lookin at the options they expire in 2011 so a long time to develope into a good return and it looks like once this mornings lot are gone there will be little or none left on the open market.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

One more note:

Recent FWL ann said they are sending the samples to Japan to be tested because WA is chockers will people queing to get their samples done.

Thats a long way to send samples. Sure it s prob cause they have a big stell market but i like to think otherwise. :p:
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Guys this is just too much, I hope no ones paying these levels, please take a bit of time to note how hard the stock has run it was 20c last week,


I'm bullish do to my own research and anlysis, but I was also lucky enough to buy early and have continued to buy, my avg entry is probably 35c on the shares and 15c on the options,


I did not mean to imply that FWL will be the next Murchison in terms of projects or going to $5 overnight etc etc

What I meant to imply was that the from what I've heard and then researched and verified, that same players behind Murchison are apparantly looking to FWL as their next play,

That being said I think at these levels pre PFS figures its a bit too much,

I'm going to wait back at 39c with a buy and see if I get filled on a retrace

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DYOR and don't get caught up in the euphoria!
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

couldnt agree more YT, seems to be running on the back pure speculation from the forums etc.
my order is set for 40c and lets see what happens. if i dont fill it then you cant win them all
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

also another question/worry i have.

since it is already so tightly held, what happens if another say 10 - 15% of smaller holders are in it for the long term also, that only leaves 5 - 10% with the traders. is this enough to push the stock higher, or does it become illiquid?

just something thats been at the back of my mind
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

prawn_86 said:
also another question/worry i have.

since it is already so tightly held, what happens if another say 10 - 15% of smaller holders are in it for the long term also, that only leaves 5 - 10% with the traders. is this enough to push the stock higher, or does it become illiquid?
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Short answer (not enough for 100 characters): Both?

Long answer: If you're LT anyway why do you worry about the stock being illiquid? ;)
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Lots of people taking a profit when it opened 20% higher. Expecting share price to climb back up to mid-high 50's in the afternoon.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Mousie said:
If you're LT anyway why do you worry about the stock being illiquid? ;)
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worry about it, because what is going to push the price higher? will those 10% of non long term holders b enough for a sustained long term price rise?
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

I'm out this morning at 0.595, having bought in when YT first flagged it here on ASF. Thanks YT for another great tip. :)
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

prawn_86 said:
worry about it, because what is going to push the price higher? will those 10% of non long term holders b enough for a sustained long term price rise?
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If good news keep coming out it'll sustain the LT price rise. Sure there might be gap ups but that's what a LT holder would like to see. The last thing you'd want as a LT holder is for a stock to capped by day traders aplenty. With 10% of stock changing hands you ain't gonna see the price band staying very long. Hope this helps
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Just added a packet of FWLO to double my exposure.

At 0.29+.25=54c they represent a much more realistic valuation to the current SP.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

YOUNG_TRADER said:
Guys this is just too much, I hope no ones paying these levels, please take a bit of time to note how hard the stock has run it was 20c last week,


I'm bullish do to my own research and anlysis, but I was also lucky enough to buy early and have continued to buy, my avg entry is probably 35c on the shares and 15c on the options,


I did not mean to imply that FWL will be the next Murchison in terms of projects or going to $5 overnight etc etc

What I meant to imply was that the from what I've heard and then researched and verified, that same players behind Murchison are apparantly looking to FWL as their next play,

That being said I think at these levels pre PFS figures its a bit too much,

I'm going to wait back at 39c with a buy and see if I get filled on a retrace

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DYOR and don't get caught up in the euphoria!
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Ha ha ha, thankyou for your concern :)
I got in yesterday at 44 cents and put a sell in at 60 cents straight away, and what would you know it was filled before i knew it. WOW!
Anyway waiting just above 40 cents now. Thanks YT, did you take any profit?
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

just been thinking of a comparison of FWL to TRF. They are both magnetite deposits, shares on issue are approx the same. FWL from what i have seen posted, have 75m tonne and TRF or iron clad 44m tonne. TRF sp ran from 20 odd cents to $2 in 3 months. They are pretty close to infrastructure, and the cost to build a benny plant would be similar? FWL have just taken off from 20 cents where will they go? Be interested in any other thoughts on what the value of FWL should be or could be.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Lounge chair here is all my research

Although I originally said 60c is a target, at 60c the mkt = $51m which could turn out to be a possible 1 yr of 30 year net profit, so a PFS that showed profit of $50m p.a. for 30yrs may = a Mkt Cap of $100m, my broker thinks this is more reasonable if the PFS shows this,

DYOR

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I have found anohter Iron Ore gem and unfortunately its started running alot sooner than I had hoped, so before it runs to far I'm starting an FWL thread.

This company is looking at producing Pig Iron which should generate $75m a yr in EBIT for 30yrs vs a current mkt cap of $21m

It has a largish low scal magnetite deposit,

We can expect a JORC in 1-2weeks

With a PFS By start of JULY,

I am seeking to get a discussion going to assess whether my assements of the company are reasonable

At 25c Current Mkt Cap = $21m
An EBIT of $75m a yr for 30yrs = NPV $1Billion+ (EBIT of $2.25Billion)
So I'd say once PFS is out I'd expect a mkt cap of $50m minimum = 60c


Advantages
- Management = Ex MIS MD in charge of their Magnetite Project, Excel Coal
- TOP 20 = Hold 80% so very tight
- Capital raisings will be done sparingly = When they issued rights options instead of being free or 1c they were at a 4c cost so company could raise $1m from the rights, sounds very very prudent to me
- Infrastructure amazing, on the main highway to Port Geralton = truck ore no rail! 14kms away from main town of Yalgoo, can use all exisiting port facilities, gas and water run through or near deposit
- Mkt cap tiny vs NPV
- Backed by Martin Place
- Pig Iron in high demand, much higher than magnetite ore as its a value added product
- Japanese Steel firm Kobe already taking Iron Ore samples, they could easily underwrite the development of Yogi project


Disadvantages
- Cap Ex = $350m+


It all looks good but I want to hear some others thoughts and feedback,

I found most of my info on the companies web
Project- http://www.ferrowest.com.au/yalgoo.html
Top 20 (old) - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
Management - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/directors.html

And also recent announcements



p.s. DYOR!
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YOUNG_TRADER said:
Ok to begin with here is a list of the 20 Largest Shareholders - 31 May 2007 see here http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
Note the names in bold

Rank Shareholder Name Holding %
1 Comet Resources Limited 8,700,000 16.11
2 Graeme & Margaret Johnston
(The G&M Johnston Superfund) 4,575,000 8.47
3 Philip James Evers 4,335,000 8.03
4 Grenache Pty Ltd 4,325,000 8.01
5 Alcardo Investments Limited (Styled 102501 Account) 2,589,816 4.80
6 Eugenia Manning 2,050,000 3.80
7 WHI Securities Pty Ltd
(Crown Credit Corporation) 1,923,500 3.56
8 Brett Lee Manning 1,887,200 3.49
9 Nikolais Zuks 1,300,000 2.41
10 National Nominees Limited 1,250,000 2.31
11 ANZ Nominees Limited (Cash Income A/C) 1,100,000 2.04
12 MP Securities Nominees 1,027,000 1.90
13 Irrawaddy Investments Pty Ltd
(Duffin Family A/C) 1,000,000 1.85
14 JM International Investments 997,590 1.85
15 BOSO 1 Pty Ltd 500,000 .93
16 Forty Traders Pty Ltd 500,000 .93
17 Paul & Karen Kopejtka (Kopejtka Share A/C) 475,000 .88
18 Tuxedo Investments Pty Ltd 450,000 .83
19 Panga Pty Ltd 400,000 .74
20 G C & D S Campbell 350,000 .65

Wonder who no 9. Nikolais Zuks is?

He was only one of the founding shareholders and backers of Murchison Metals see this http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache...05.pdf+paul+kopejtka&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au


Wonder who no 17. Paul Kopejtka is?
He also was another founder of Murchison Metals and is also the current Executive Chairman see this http://www.mml.net.au/about/board_of_directors.phtml
and again
http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache...05.pdf+paul+kopejtka&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au

If you have a look Murchison Metals started off as a 20c stock like Ferrowest 2 years ago, today its $5!

I uncovered this information after my broker in Perth called me to ask why I like FWL so much, he then told me how the group that did Murchison Metals will soon be focusing on Ferrowest as there next Iron Ore development story,

I can't believe I missed these links!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Arghhhhhhhhhh

I have no doubt in my mind that once the PFS numbers firm up Yalgoo it will be onward and upward from there,

No doubt at all,


Thoughts?
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Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

the latest Ann showed that FWL is planning to produce 500,000 tonnes of MPI per annum from Yalgoo @ their indicated price of US$395/tonne, thats roughly close to US$200m a yr.

YT what do u think is the cost ratio for a project like this? the Mkt Cap is indeed low even at current 50c/share.

PS, the annoucement also stated:

The Company confirms that it still expects to release its first resource estimate for the Yogi iron ore
deposit before the end of June.

looks like we r not too far off now!
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

UPKA said:
the latest Ann showed that FWL is planning to produce 500,000 tonnes of MPI per annum from Yalgoo @ their indicated price of US$395/tonne, thats roughly close to US$200m a yr.

YT what do u think is the cost ratio for a project like this? the Mkt Cap is indeed low even at current 50c/share.

PS, the annoucement also stated:

The Company confirms that it still expects to release its first resource estimate for the Yogi iron ore
deposit before the end of June.

looks like we r not too far off now!
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From YT's analysis, even at 50c it means it's got at least another 20% in it; if you take the perth broker's suggestion of 100m, it's got another 200% left in it.

Surprises me that people are selling with an announcement like this, unless they all think that it has gone as hard as it's going to, and is overbought as it is.

I can see this one driving hard upon the announcement and then being sold down as people take their profits - same thing happened to FNT, YML, MGO etc.

Silly traders :)
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Fool said:
From YT's analysis, even at 50c it means it's got at least another 20% in it; if you take the perth broker's suggestion of 100m, it's got another 200% left in it.

Surprises me that people are selling with an announcement like this, unless they all think that it has gone as hard as it's going to, and is overbought as it is.

I can see this one driving hard upon the announcement and then being sold down as people take their profits - same thing happened to FNT, YML, MGO etc.

Silly traders :)
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the market is down a bit, and its been played by day traders, u can tell from teh volatility thru out the day. nothing to worry abt, if it falls any lower, i would consider to accumulate somemore, i think this is only start of the run, this one could well be in the $1 range!
 
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