ICU - Investor Centre

Fool said:

There was a good point made tonight though, if it looks like a takeover is going on, the options are the best thing to invest in because they'll still be there in 3 years time.

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prawn_86 said:

also another question/worry i have.

since it is already so tightly held, what happens if another say 10 - 15% of smaller holders are in it for the long term also, that only leaves 5 - 10% with the traders. is this enough to push the stock higher, or does it become illiquid?

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Mousie said:

If you're LT anyway why do you worry about the stock being illiquid?

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prawn_86 said:

worry about it, because what is going to push the price higher? will those 10% of non long term holders b enough for a sustained long term price rise?

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YOUNG_TRADER said:

Guys this is just too much, I hope no ones paying these levels, please take a bit of time to note how hard the stock has run it was 20c last week,


I'm bullish do to my own research and anlysis, but I was also lucky enough to buy early and have continued to buy, my avg entry is probably 35c on the shares and 15c on the options,


I did not mean to imply that FWL will be the next Murchison in terms of projects or going to $5 overnight etc etc

What I meant to imply was that the from what I've heard and then researched and verified, that same players behind Murchison are apparantly looking to FWL as their next play,

That being said I think at these levels pre PFS figures its a bit too much,

I'm going to wait back at 39c with a buy and see if I get filled on a retrace

PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DYOR and don't get caught up in the euphoria!

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YOUNG_TRADER said:

I have found anohter Iron Ore gem and unfortunately its started running alot sooner than I had hoped, so before it runs to far I'm starting an FWL thread.

This company is looking at producing Pig Iron which should generate $75m a yr in EBIT for 30yrs vs a current mkt cap of $21m

It has a largish low scal magnetite deposit,

We can expect a JORC in 1-2weeks

With a PFS By start of JULY,

I am seeking to get a discussion going to assess whether my assements of the company are reasonable

At 25c Current Mkt Cap = $21m
An EBIT of $75m a yr for 30yrs = NPV $1Billion+ (EBIT of $2.25Billion)
So I'd say once PFS is out I'd expect a mkt cap of $50m minimum = 60c


Advantages
- Management = Ex MIS MD in charge of their Magnetite Project, Excel Coal
- TOP 20 = Hold 80% so very tight
- Capital raisings will be done sparingly = When they issued rights options instead of being free or 1c they were at a 4c cost so company could raise $1m from the rights, sounds very very prudent to me
- Infrastructure amazing, on the main highway to Port Geralton = truck ore no rail! 14kms away from main town of Yalgoo, can use all exisiting port facilities, gas and water run through or near deposit
- Mkt cap tiny vs NPV
- Backed by Martin Place
- Pig Iron in high demand, much higher than magnetite ore as its a value added product
- Japanese Steel firm Kobe already taking Iron Ore samples, they could easily underwrite the development of Yogi project


Disadvantages
- Cap Ex = $350m+


It all looks good but I want to hear some others thoughts and feedback,

I found most of my info on the companies web
Project- http://www.ferrowest.com.au/yalgoo.html
Top 20 (old) - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
Management - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/directors.html

And also recent announcements



p.s. DYOR!

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YOUNG_TRADER said:

Ok to begin with here is a list of the 20 Largest Shareholders - 31 May 2007 see here http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
Note the names in bold

Rank Shareholder Name Holding %
1 Comet Resources Limited 8,700,000 16.11
2 Graeme & Margaret Johnston
(The G&M Johnston Superfund) 4,575,000 8.47
3 Philip James Evers 4,335,000 8.03
4 Grenache Pty Ltd 4,325,000 8.01
5 Alcardo Investments Limited (Styled 102501 Account) 2,589,816 4.80
6 Eugenia Manning 2,050,000 3.80
7 WHI Securities Pty Ltd
(Crown Credit Corporation) 1,923,500 3.56
8 Brett Lee Manning 1,887,200 3.49
9 Nikolais Zuks 1,300,000 2.41
10 National Nominees Limited 1,250,000 2.31
11 ANZ Nominees Limited (Cash Income A/C) 1,100,000 2.04
12 MP Securities Nominees 1,027,000 1.90
13 Irrawaddy Investments Pty Ltd
(Duffin Family A/C) 1,000,000 1.85
14 JM International Investments 997,590 1.85
15 BOSO 1 Pty Ltd 500,000 .93
16 Forty Traders Pty Ltd 500,000 .93
17 Paul & Karen Kopejtka (Kopejtka Share A/C) 475,000 .88
18 Tuxedo Investments Pty Ltd 450,000 .83
19 Panga Pty Ltd 400,000 .74
20 G C & D S Campbell 350,000 .65

Wonder who no 9. Nikolais Zuks is?

He was only one of the founding shareholders and backers of Murchison Metals see this http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache...05.pdf+paul+kopejtka&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au


Wonder who no 17. Paul Kopejtka is?
He also was another founder of Murchison Metals and is also the current Executive Chairman see this http://www.mml.net.au/about/board_of_directors.phtml
and again
http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache...05.pdf+paul+kopejtka&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=au

If you have a look Murchison Metals started off as a 20c stock like Ferrowest 2 years ago, today its $5!

I uncovered this information after my broker in Perth called me to ask why I like FWL so much, he then told me how the group that did Murchison Metals will soon be focusing on Ferrowest as there next Iron Ore development story,

I can't believe I missed these links!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Arghhhhhhhhhh

I have no doubt in my mind that once the PFS numbers firm up Yalgoo it will be onward and upward from there,

No doubt at all,


Thoughts?

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UPKA said:

the latest Ann showed that FWL is planning to produce 500,000 tonnes of MPI per annum from Yalgoo @ their indicated price of US$395/tonne, thats roughly close to US$200m a yr.

YT what do u think is the cost ratio for a project like this? the Mkt Cap is indeed low even at current 50c/share.

PS, the annoucement also stated:

The Company confirms that it still expects to release its first resource estimate for the Yogi iron ore
deposit before the end of June.

looks like we r not too far off now!

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Fool said:

From YT's analysis, even at 50c it means it's got at least another 20% in it; if you take the perth broker's suggestion of 100m, it's got another 200% left in it.

Surprises me that people are selling with an announcement like this, unless they all think that it has gone as hard as it's going to, and is overbought as it is.

I can see this one driving hard upon the announcement and then being sold down as people take their profits - same thing happened to FNT, YML, MGO etc.

Silly traders

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