IMHO fundamentally fwl is still very undervalue. With an EBITDA of $A125 Million per annum at .5 Mtpa for the first 5 years, then ramping up to 1Mtpa for an EBITDA of $A169 Million per annum.
That's $A125 Million EBITDA per annum, after deduction of operating cost!!! For a company with a current market capitalisation of approximately 50 million fully diluted.
Even with a NPV @3% you still get $A93.5 Million
So you can see how undervalue the company is.
I challenge any1 to find a company with future earnings of $125 million per annum for the first 5 years and with a current market capitalisation of 50mil. A NPV of 1.6% is equal to its market capitalisation.
I guess once we recieve confirmation of their preferred technology for production, and it's effectiveness then once again this stock will be rerated.
This is my first post so any constructive criticism is welcome. Thank you
Where is YT? Maybe sold out FWL, or whatever he unselfishly shared with you guys. (Just kidding, he is a noble man)
My view is still the same, FWL is using the pig iron production to distract investors from the ultra low grade, and very likely uneconomic iron ore resources.
Well, when the shares price goes up, everybody is a winer. If it is goes up and then down, there are winers and losers. It become a zero sum game.
Where is YT? Maybe sold out FWL, or whatever he unselfishly shared with you guys. (Just kidding, he is a noble man)
My view is still the same, FWL is using the pig iron production to distract investors from the ultra low grade, and very likely uneconomic iron ore resources.
Well, when the shares price goes up, everybody is a winer. If it is goes up and then down, there are winers and losers. It become a zero sum game.
I can't see the logic there. Stocks which are tightly held (i.e. top shareholdes own >80%) are in my experience, less volatile. The reason being that insto investors (Banks, Funds managers, Directors etc) are not prone to jumping in and out of companies all the time. Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc. Just my opinion.Is FWL gettin smashed hard because the top 20 hold most of it?
I can't see the logic there. Stocks which are tightly held (i.e. top shareholdes own >80%) are in my experience, less volatile. The reason being that insto investors (Banks, Funds managers, Directors etc) are not prone to jumping in and out of companies all the time. Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc. Just my opinion.
you are right but look at the volume it has gone done on , this is still "Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc."
And the SP has gone so much higher than the entry point of the 80% that they are not inclined to support the stock at the moment as they are still showing a profit despite the 50% fall in SP since the 25th of June. It is just the traders getting out.Agreed, it has been the same case for YML, the lack of buyers n sellers will often cause large rises n falls in the SP, as it doesnt take alot of sell or buy orders to go thru the depth.
Has FWL raised capital as yet?
I know they are looking at fast tracking with capital raising ...
Has this occurred?
I have found anohter Iron Ore gem and unfortunately its started running alot sooner than I had hoped, so before it runs to far I'm starting an FWL thread.
This company is looking at producing Pig Iron which should generate $75m a yr in EBIT for 30yrs vs a current mkt cap of $21m
It has a largish low scal magnetite deposit,
We can expect a JORC in 1-2weeks
With a PFS By start of JULY,
I am seeking to get a discussion going to assess whether my assements of the company are reasonable
At 25c Current Mkt Cap = $21m
An EBIT of $75m a yr for 30yrs = NPV $1Billion+ (EBIT of $2.25Billion)
So I'd say once PFS is out I'd expect a mkt cap of $50m minimum = 60c
Advantages
- Management = Ex MIS MD in charge of their Magnetite Project, Excel Coal
- TOP 20 = Hold 80% so very tight
- Capital raisings will be done sparingly = When they issued rights options instead of being free or 1c they were at a 4c cost so company could raise $1m from the rights, sounds very very prudent to me
- Infrastructure amazing, on the main highway to Port Geralton = truck ore no rail! 14kms away from main town of Yalgoo, can use all exisiting port facilities, gas and water run through or near deposit
- Mkt cap tiny vs NPV
- Backed by Martin Place
- Pig Iron in high demand, much higher than magnetite ore as its a value added product
- Japanese Steel firm Kobe already taking Iron Ore samples, they could easily underwrite the development of Yogi project
Disadvantages
- Cap Ex = $350m+
It all looks good but I want to hear some others thoughts and feedback,
I found most of my info on the companies web
Project- http://www.ferrowest.com.au/yalgoo.html
Top 20 (old) - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
Management - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/directors.html
And also recent announcements
p.s. DYOR!
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