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Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

UPKA said:
yes i have... :eek: got confused reading two identical reports...:D, bt how did they make mistake on that! thats abt 40% difference....
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UKPA,

Yes it was easy to get confused, I reckon I looked at 5 times before I realized what had happened, and wondered whether someone would post and get it incorrect.

As to the mistake..bloody poor if u ask me, you the hell checked it before it went out. Geez if put that to my MD, I'd be out of a job!!!!!.

Someone will get a kick up the a** for that, I'm sure. :)

It does makes difference, although the IRR stays the same, which I'm guessing was correct in the first place, just they got the wrong numbers in EBITDA. They did not take long to correct thou, which is at least something positive :)

Cheers
Muzz
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

I am pretty amazed they could make such a large error, what esle can i say, theres no point speculating how it could have happened just baffling,

anyway it scared a few people into selling down,
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

I was happy with the announcement,

Although in todays mkt everything is getting spanked!

So the timing was rather unfortunate if you ask me :(
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I was happy with the announcement,

Although in todays mkt everything is getting spanked!

So the timing was rather unfortunate if you ask me :(
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I guess it depends on whether you're looking to increase your holdings in the low-mid seventies;)

We did say support at 75c:)
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

What a day to release such a positive and financially huge potential Ann:banghead: BUMMER HEY oh well diamonds all ways shine and this environment wont last for ever remember march seems like a eternity ago but only 4 months have past and what a profitable 4 months it has been for most on the ASX lets look to the next for months and plan our trades and i know that FWL and FWLO will be part of my portfolio come November and i hold a bucket full and they haven't been easy to get so i am not giving these baby's away bottom draw for FWL with a $1.25 sign on the front of it and then i might sell some maybe i will have to think about it first LOL :D:D
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

well, with the market down nearly 3% at the moment, most of these spec stocks (including nearly all of my own!!) are in the red.

The turnover on FWL and FWLO has been very light, only just over 400k on the heads. I think we are seeing the same thing here as we have with the rest of them, some punters are spooked and are panic selling.

As long as the fundamentals are right, and with the pre feas i believe them to be good, the sp will be fine in the long term.

The next couple of weeks should see FWL settle a bit more and we will get a clearer picture.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

So now we all know what PFS stands for: Piece of F*****g S**t:banghead:

At least it only took 2 takes to get it right...but oh what a monumental error:eek:
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Well I don't know about you...but I've been shopping today.

People selling at whatever price seems ludicrous to me i.e options at 33/34 cents:confused:. I must thank them though. It was to hard to resist to stay out of the market when post PFS options were being offered so cheaply.

Surely we aren't at panic stations yet.

As YT stated the PFS was good news. IMO its a major hurdle overcome.

The next major news is the sample results from Japan, due in September.

Here's hoping for more red on the DOW tonight so I can catch some more 'falling knives' tomorrow :kiffer:
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Pommiegranite said:
Well I don't know about you...but I've been shopping today.

People selling at whatever price seems ludicrous to me i.e options at 33/34 cents:confused:. I must thank them though. It was to hard to resist to stay out of the market when post PFS options were being offered so cheaply.

Surely we aren't at panic stations yet.

As YT stated the PFS was good news. IMO its a major hurdle overcome.

The next major news is the sample results from Japan, due in September.

Here's hoping for more red on the DOW tonight so I can catch some more 'falling knives' tomorrow :kiffer:
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yes alot of shares r been offloaded at some rediculous price. looks like ppl have left the fundermentals behind, and jumping on the bandwagon heading south. but again its a very small sell down, it doesnt take much to move this stock due to the number of shares available. i believe u should get watever amount u want, and put it under the pillow, i'm sure u'll find a big surprise in couple of mths time when the company finish their DES.;)
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

I've just found something out, although I'm not sure of its significance in adding further credibility in Ferrowest's choice of ITmk3.

It relates to Ferrowest's Director/Principal Metallurgist Phillip Evers.


1. We all know that Cleveland-Cliffs have entered into a 10-year alliance with Kobe Steel for commercialization of Kobe’s ITmk3 technology.

2. In 2005 Cleveland-Cliffs bought out Portman Ltd

3. Phillip Evers, prior to his appointment at Ferrowest, was Portman's Technical Project Manager


I wonder if there was some kind of involvement between Evers and Cleveland-Cliffs about their decision in pursuing ITmk3.

Or more likely:

I wonder if he knew that Cleveland-Cliffs were onto a good thing and therefore decided he would be better of 'going it alone' with their plans, as a director of a new company i.e Ferrowest

Ferrowest have openly credited Evers for the MPI idea, but his links to Cleveland Cliffs were previously unknown to me (See page 2 of this release)

Any thoughts guys?
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Playing the devils advocate here but there was another article in todays West Australian concerning the grief Mt Gibson iron are going through with their Fe resource (and its haematite too from memory) 85 ks east of Perenjori (about 90k's due south of FWL's Yalgoo lease).

The WA Government aren't too keen on us destroying all our BIF ridges over here as they host specific flora and fauna types yadayadayada.
Anyway there are a few reserves between the two resources and (when I used to drill out there anyway) quite a few tour operators that run tours in particular for the wildflowers.

The article basically re-iterated what has been previously said (and what prevented me buying these @ 30c:banghead:) and that is it will likely grant the Extension Hill permit but then protect the rest of the mid-west region (containing a stated $62 billion Fe resource).

I don't have any more detail to how far the line is being drawn in the sand but yalgoo is the middle of the midwest!!

Haven't been able to post a link but can scan the article if anyone is interested.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

jtb said:
Playing the devils advocate here but there was another article in todays West Australian concerning the grief Mt Gibson iron are going through with their Fe resource (and its haematite too from memory) 85 ks east of Perenjori (about 90k's due south of FWL's Yalgoo lease).

The WA Government aren't too keen on us destroying all our BIF ridges over here as they host specific flora and fauna types yadayadayada.
Anyway there are a few reserves between the two resources and (when I used to drill out there anyway) quite a few tour operators that run tours in particular for the wildflowers.

The article basically re-iterated what has been previously said (and what prevented me buying these @ 30c:banghead:) and that is it will likely grant the Extension Hill permit but then protect the rest of the mid-west region (containing a stated $62 billion Fe resource).

I don't have any more detail to how far the line is being drawn in the sand but yalgoo is the middle of the midwest!!

Haven't been able to post a link but can scan the article if anyone is interested.
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WA goverment would be cutting their own purse strings...to be totally honest, I can't see it happening:2twocents
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

pommy
i've been shooping too
iron Ore more FWL, added ADY,YML and spec PSP, RMI (have Fe but chasing other things) CBH ( also concentrating on other things) Pleased as punch:D
200,000 odd shares traded in FWL today is pretty small. I tend to ignore the price movements on thin volume.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

FWL is getting slammed on low volume,

Technically it has clearly dropped well below 75c level and now should find support at 55c,

I think that it may range trade between 55c and 85c/90c until a catalyst emerges to break it out,

Fundamentally everything looks good,

However I think many were expecting a much larger NPV figure as was I, after discussing this with my broker and reading some other posts on FWL I too agree that the fact is the current economics are based on the 112Mt JORC, now this should be at least 2x as big,

Th thing is though that the current JORC is absorbing all of the huge CAP EX, so when additional tonnages are brought into the JORC economies of scale come into play and the NPV rises dramatically as none of the additional JORC ore that comes in is eaten away at by the Cap Ex

Also it should be remembered how thinly traded this stock is a 100k buy would take this up to would take this up to 75c and a 100k sell would take it down to 50c :eek:
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Ahhh.. thanks YT, in the midst of the panick selling i totally forgot about that aspect. That NPV figure sure was making me nervous, its a good thing i kept onto my holdings, i think it would be hard to buy back into this stock on such low trading volumes.

I have a feeling were going to get smashed again on Monday though - even though we all know FWL has nothing to do with US morgages - just how the market works.

On another topic, i'm still a bit baffled about the mystery PFS. I know the real numbers came out not long after, but where did the first one even come from and why were the numbers so hugely different? Its probably not important anymore but i'm still curious about it.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

charly100 said:
Ahhh.. thanks YT, in the midst of the panick selling i totally forgot about that aspect. That NPV figure sure was making me nervous, its a good thing i kept onto my holdings, i think it would be hard to buy back into this stock on such low trading volumes.

I have a feeling were going to get smashed again on Monday though - even though we all know FWL has nothing to do with US morgages - just how the market works.

On another topic, i'm still a bit baffled about the mystery PFS. I know the real numbers came out not long after, but where did the first one even come from and why were the numbers so hugely different? Its probably not important anymore but i'm still curious about it.
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Likewise, for many holders, it would be hard to sell on such low trading volumes. This has turned into a bottom drawer stock for me, which is fine by me.

As long as the fundamentals of the project aren't affected by this US crap, we will be okay. As no cap raising is required yet, Ferrowest should be able to ride out the rough times without any effect (providing there is a recovery sometime next year)
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

From the new released today. I got the area from here

http://www.ferrowest.com.au/Announcements/2006/Ferrowest IPO Research Note May 06.pdf


M59/634 906 hectares 100%
M59/635 774 hectares 100%
M59/636 949 hectares 100%
M59/637 200 hectares 100%


so fwl now have another ~30km², , does anyone know if there is any data for the area? Rock samples etc??

wow, I just found this on page 18p it shows the land area. check out the increase on the strike length.
http://www.ferrowest.com.au/Ferrowest Limited Prospectus 15May2006.pdf?
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Its holding strongly at 0.55. I have a feeling that if dow is up overnight it might be the bottom of this slide. If dow is down again maybe 0.50 lowest?
Anybody with some decent TA skills have an opinion? My TA is poor to say the least.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

charly100 said:
Its holding strongly at 0.55. I have a feeling that if dow is up overnight it might be the bottom of this slide. If dow is down again maybe 0.50 lowest?
Anybody with some decent TA skills have an opinion? My TA is poor to say the least.
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IMO..and t/a's may disagree with me...but in panic situations such as what the DOW seemed to have last friday, predicting a bottom/support levels can go out of the window.

We are now in the realms of the unknown.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

IMHO fundamentally fwl is still very undervalue. With an EBITDA of $A125 Million per annum at .5 Mtpa for the first 5 years, then ramping up to 1Mtpa for an EBITDA of $A169 Million per annum.
That's $A125 Million EBITDA per annum, after deduction of operating cost!!! For a company with a current market capitalisation of approximately 50 million fully diluted.

Even with a NPV @3% you still get $A93.5 Million

So you can see how undervalue the company is.
I challenge any1 to find a company with future earnings of $125 million per annum for the first 5 years and with a current market capitalisation of 50mil. A NPV of 1.6% is equal to its market capitalisation.

I guess once we recieve confirmation of their preferred technology for production, and it's effectiveness then once again this stock will be rerated.

This is my first post so any constructive criticism is welcome. Thank you
 
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