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Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

topstock said:
IMHO fundamentally fwl is still very undervalue. With an EBITDA of $A125 Million per annum at .5 Mtpa for the first 5 years, then ramping up to 1Mtpa for an EBITDA of $A169 Million per annum.
That's $A125 Million EBITDA per annum, after deduction of operating cost!!! For a company with a current market capitalisation of approximately 50 million fully diluted.

Even with a NPV @3% you still get $A93.5 Million

So you can see how undervalue the company is.
I challenge any1 to find a company with future earnings of $125 million per annum for the first 5 years and with a current market capitalisation of 50mil. A NPV of 1.6% is equal to its market capitalisation.

I guess once we recieve confirmation of their preferred technology for production, and it's effectiveness then once again this stock will be rerated.

This is my first post so any constructive criticism is welcome. Thank you
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Yes i agree, its js the timing of the PFS wasnt too wise. i think ppl will start to come back to this one once the market settles down a bit, its still a roller coaster ride atm. so more patience is needed
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Where is YT? Maybe sold out FWL, or whatever he unselfishly shared with you guys. (Just kidding, he is a noble man)

My view is still the same, FWL is using the pig iron production to distract investors from the ultra low grade, and very likely uneconomic iron ore resources.

Well, when the shares price goes up, everybody is a winer. If it is goes up and then down, there are winers and losers. It become a zero sum game.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

danewbee said:
Where is YT? Maybe sold out FWL, or whatever he unselfishly shared with you guys. (Just kidding, he is a noble man)

My view is still the same, FWL is using the pig iron production to distract investors from the ultra low grade, and very likely uneconomic iron ore resources.

Well, when the shares price goes up, everybody is a winer. If it is goes up and then down, there are winers and losers. It become a zero sum game.
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It’s nothing to worry about man, if anything it’s a good chance to buy, it’s only because it is a speculative stock and isn’t making money that has people scared from US issues. Put it away for a few years and we’ll see when they start mining. Remember this is only 1/3 of their strike length and with the added land they now have more $$. Check the top 20 list , when that’s start changing I will be worried
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

danewbee said:
Where is YT? Maybe sold out FWL, or whatever he unselfishly shared with you guys. (Just kidding, he is a noble man)

My view is still the same, FWL is using the pig iron production to distract investors from the ultra low grade, and very likely uneconomic iron ore resources.

Well, when the shares price goes up, everybody is a winer. If it is goes up and then down, there are winers and losers. It become a zero sum game.
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I've actually been on holiday for the last week with my partner who just returned from overseas,

FWL has been punished by the mkt which totally ignored IMO the PFS results, however FWL was 20c when I first discovered it so at 50c thats still 150% return, I was surprised to see it push down below 55c,

These guys have a fundamentally undervalued project, as such I will continue to hold until the fundamentals change ie mkts value the company properly etc
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

For sure I was surprised not only at the drop but at the lack of market depth there is nobody around looking to buy. They have a favourable PFS once the DES comes out in like a month or so it could prove it as a 100% cash generating operation, imagine what the companies value will be if its positive. I couldn't resist getting some oppies today looks like they are tightly held despite the lack of buyers and with an expiry of 2010 im not worried as im certain I will turn a profit on em by then :D.

Its crazy though just in comparison to ACS. ACS has a somewhat strong market buy depth considering and I would consider them way more spec than FWL. Perhaps its because of low volumes of investors jumping ship while the majority remains held by top 20.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

The market is a bit gloomy since end of last month, got a long term view on this stock... Was really surprised that it went down to this level, especially after the announcement last week :confused:

Is FWL gettin smashed hard because the top 20 hold most of it? :(
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

sev3n said:
Is FWL gettin smashed hard because the top 20 hold most of it? :(
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I can't see the logic there. Stocks which are tightly held (i.e. top shareholdes own >80%) are in my experience, less volatile. The reason being that insto investors (Banks, Funds managers, Directors etc) are not prone to jumping in and out of companies all the time. Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc. Just my opinion.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Kipp said:
I can't see the logic there. Stocks which are tightly held (i.e. top shareholdes own >80%) are in my experience, less volatile. The reason being that insto investors (Banks, Funds managers, Directors etc) are not prone to jumping in and out of companies all the time. Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc. Just my opinion.
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you are right but look at the volume it has gone done on , this is still "Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc."
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Fool said:
you are right but look at the volume it has gone done on , this is still "Leaving only 20% for the traders, mums and dads etc."
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Agreed, it has been the same case for YML, the lack of buyers n sellers will often cause large rises n falls in the SP, as it doesnt take alot of sell or buy orders to go thru the depth.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

UPKA said:
Agreed, it has been the same case for YML, the lack of buyers n sellers will often cause large rises n falls in the SP, as it doesnt take alot of sell or buy orders to go thru the depth.
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And the SP has gone so much higher than the entry point of the 80% that they are not inclined to support the stock at the moment as they are still showing a profit despite the 50% fall in SP since the 25th of June. It is just the traders getting out.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Hey Guys

I'm looking for some clarification.... Just had a look at FWL options (FWLO). If they are priced at .26 with a strike price of .25 then to exercise these options and make any profit I would be looking for a share price of at least (.26+.25) = .51 in the future.

Currently the share price is .515 with decent prospects...

Am I missing something or are these options underpriced? :eek:
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Has FWL raised capital as yet?

I know they are looking at fast tracking with capital raising ...

Has this occurred?
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Ken said:
Has FWL raised capital as yet?

I know they are looking at fast tracking with capital raising ...

Has this occurred?
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Ken, i emailed Brett Manning and nothing has happened as of yet - they are still looking at their best options. He said there were a number of alternatives they were looking at. Unfortunately he couldn't be any more specific but the market should know as soon as they have decided. Imho they have enough funds to last until December so I dont think there is a HUGE rush.

(Oh by the way I assume your talking bout the funds for the DES and BFS as financing for the actual project is way down the track - which is a much better thing if you ask me given the current situation in the markets.)
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Agree, disapointing timing for the PFS.

He did make a promise that it would be out on time though and he more or less delivered it.

Given the state of the market it would have been nice to hold it off until the market stablised & there was better sentiment within investors.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Things have moved up a bit lately in terms of SP.

Very thin volume available on both sell sides for FWL and FWLO, I expect this stock to break hard soon just purely because there is nothing available to buy.

Definitely one to watch.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

YOUNG_TRADER said:
I have found anohter Iron Ore gem and unfortunately its started running alot sooner than I had hoped, so before it runs to far I'm starting an FWL thread.

This company is looking at producing Pig Iron which should generate $75m a yr in EBIT for 30yrs vs a current mkt cap of $21m

It has a largish low scal magnetite deposit,

We can expect a JORC in 1-2weeks

With a PFS By start of JULY,

I am seeking to get a discussion going to assess whether my assements of the company are reasonable

At 25c Current Mkt Cap = $21m
An EBIT of $75m a yr for 30yrs = NPV $1Billion+ (EBIT of $2.25Billion)
So I'd say once PFS is out I'd expect a mkt cap of $50m minimum = 60c


Advantages
- Management = Ex MIS MD in charge of their Magnetite Project, Excel Coal
- TOP 20 = Hold 80% so very tight
- Capital raisings will be done sparingly = When they issued rights options instead of being free or 1c they were at a 4c cost so company could raise $1m from the rights, sounds very very prudent to me
- Infrastructure amazing, on the main highway to Port Geralton = truck ore no rail! 14kms away from main town of Yalgoo, can use all exisiting port facilities, gas and water run through or near deposit
- Mkt cap tiny vs NPV
- Backed by Martin Place
- Pig Iron in high demand, much higher than magnetite ore as its a value added product
- Japanese Steel firm Kobe already taking Iron Ore samples, they could easily underwrite the development of Yogi project


Disadvantages
- Cap Ex = $350m+


It all looks good but I want to hear some others thoughts and feedback,

I found most of my info on the companies web
Project- http://www.ferrowest.com.au/yalgoo.html
Top 20 (old) - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/shareholders.html
Management - http://www.ferrowest.com.au/directors.html

And also recent announcements



p.s. DYOR!
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Pretty much spot on dude, looking at teh past few months

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 -- -- --
EPS -2.0 -- -- --
DPS 0.0 -- -- --

Crazy stuff

thx

MS
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

So what is next for this stock?

I note it's edging upwards on low volume, just like it edges downwards on low volume :)

None the less, positive movement is a good thing.
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

Announcement out - Good news for FWL:

Proof of Concept test work successfully completed. ITmk3 ®process suitable for Yogi iron ore concentrate and Fastmet/Fastmelt ®process also suitable

Having a choice of technologies augurs well. All looking very promising...

Maz
 
Re: FWL - Ferrowest Limited

MOU for port access now in place,,,anyone out there got a company with a one project focus. i'm interested in where the share price could go?
 
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