HSI Futures trading
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Trembling Hand
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Hehe. and so it goes.
Merry Xmass.
C ya all next year for more of the same.
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Mini-HSI 28/12/2010,
60 min Chart
Open with a wide spread down to test support at the previous swing low at 22400 (20/12/2010). Hidden buying present, close well off the low near the middle of the bar. Tail probably formed from long stops been hit. The next bar confirms buying although there is still plenty of supply present, this knocks it sideways. The 60min medium term downtrend is still in place, although a low volume test at these levels would be significant with the strength in the background. On to the 3 min chart...
3 min chart
The wide spread down bar has to contain some buying. We get an automatic rally, volume increasing during the rally. The last three bars of the rally have similar volume but the upside progress is reduced. The law of effort vs result determines that there must be some selling pressure entering. This is what knocks it sideways. Now look at the volume during this downtrend. There is a divergence with volume decreasing with decreasing price (less interest in the downside). Multiple tests although not much interest in the upside either. Tightening ranges forming a hinge, an agreement on price, the market won't like this, looking for further testing/shakeouts/high vol on up bar to confirm strength in background. Accumulation appears to be taking place, I would wait for the rally to begin before entering. Have to be careful though, wouldn't take much for a big fish to get a lot of longs covering in this important area (support level). This area could offer a good entry with a tight stop (give some room to avoid being shaken out), initial target would be around 22800 points from the break of the previous support. Could go all the way to 23200. Higher volume up bars with little progress worry me, distribution? Capping? I would wait for a breakout, then reevaluate whats going on, still assuming its going long though.
This is just some observations for fun, I do not have a position. DYOR
60 min Chart
Open with a wide spread down to test support at the previous swing low at 22400 (20/12/2010). Hidden buying present, close well off the low near the middle of the bar. Tail probably formed from long stops been hit. The next bar confirms buying although there is still plenty of supply present, this knocks it sideways. The 60min medium term downtrend is still in place, although a low volume test at these levels would be significant with the strength in the background. On to the 3 min chart...
3 min chart
The wide spread down bar has to contain some buying. We get an automatic rally, volume increasing during the rally. The last three bars of the rally have similar volume but the upside progress is reduced. The law of effort vs result determines that there must be some selling pressure entering. This is what knocks it sideways. Now look at the volume during this downtrend. There is a divergence with volume decreasing with decreasing price (less interest in the downside). Multiple tests although not much interest in the upside either. Tightening ranges forming a hinge, an agreement on price, the market won't like this, looking for further testing/shakeouts/high vol on up bar to confirm strength in background. Accumulation appears to be taking place, I would wait for the rally to begin before entering. Have to be careful though, wouldn't take much for a big fish to get a lot of longs covering in this important area (support level). This area could offer a good entry with a tight stop (give some room to avoid being shaken out), initial target would be around 22800 points from the break of the previous support. Could go all the way to 23200. Higher volume up bars with little progress worry me, distribution? Capping? I would wait for a breakout, then reevaluate whats going on, still assuming its going long though.
This is just some observations for fun, I do not have a position. DYOR
200
Trembling Hand
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Quinn you are wasting your time doing VSA on the mini. It trades 1/10 of the value traded of the HSI contract. Its the HSI that counts.
Does anyone know of a broker that has a live demo that will allow real time simulation of the HSI? In particular to directly practice the kind of trading style demonstrated by someone like Trembling Hand.
I understand I can fund an IB account and go from there, however I'd like to place some live simulated trades in the interim.
Anyone?
I understand I can fund an IB account and go from there, however I'd like to place some live simulated trades in the interim.
Anyone?
IB have a demo account available after you open an account with them
Is it accessible prior to funding? Their website says paper trader is available once you fund.
No, you need a fully operational account to use the demo account
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Unusual. IB with NT showed no data all afternoon
keeep getting stopped out in this market.. too volatile around 7 losses/8 in 3 months so far
Trembling Hand
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Unusual session yesterday. Taking a 20 point range bar, approx 0.1% of the index, we printed 172 bars for the day. The average for the last 3 months is 140, for the last month since the new year bull run started the avg is only 115. So we have seen a drop in intraday volatility compared to late last year, no surprise there I guess. Then you get the odd day thats way outside what you are use to playing with like yesterday, 172 compared to mostly 100- 120ish.
Interesting to see if we are about to move into another shifting period of range and volatility? One of the reasons fulltime trading F$%^#s you up, just as you get use to something it starts to change.
Taking a 20 point range bar, approx 0.1% of the index, we printed 172 bars for the day. The average for the last 3 months is 140, for the last month since the new year bull run started the avg is only 115. So we have seen a drop in intraday volatility compared to late last year, no surprise there I guess. Then you get the odd day thats way outside what you are use to playing with like yesterday, 172 compared to mostly 100- 120ish.Interesting to see if we are about to move into another shifting period of range and volatility? One of the reasons fulltime trading F$%^#s you up, just as you get use to something it starts to change.
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Trembling Hand
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Oh just as a comparission for those poor fools still trading the SPI
0.1% bars your average per day is...... ............... 35 LOL!!
Hi TH, glad to have you back as I've got a question about the HSI!
I have backtested ORB style setups across a bunch of markets and find the two that consistently seem to work with various ORB are GBP/USD and also HSI.
In forexland, the explanation for why such strategies work on GBP/USD is the relatively low liquidity compared to EUR/USD.
I don't understand why HSI specifically seems to work well with this strategy as it seems like quite a liquid index. Is it simply the lower number of hours per session?
Timmy
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Trembling Hand
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The futs instrument itself attracts a bit of volume, about 4 times the spi for example, but the underling index only has 45 or so stocks in it, back of the envelope calculation its about 20% of the market Cap of the ASX200. So the fundamentals of the index is relatively thin. Therefore it moves more like a high priced stock than an Index.
Plus yes also the condensed trading time without any overnight trading helps to create an action packed session.
Ya might want to have a look also at STW (Taiwan out of SGX) and the Kospi.
May not be long
Into hosipltal on Wed for a minor 4 hour heart operation!!!!! The rewards of a life time of daily exercise!! irony!
Timmy
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May not be long
Geez ... good luck TH - let us know when you wake up ("Nurse, bring me a laptop ... stat"
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May not be long
Sorry to hear that TH.
I'm guessing adrenaline over-production is the culprit?
Don't worry M8, only the good die young .... and you are one bad mother
: All the best. Hope it goes well on Wednesday .....
