Trembling Hand
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Well guys we didn't get much sport out of this sucker!! :whip
How to make money out of forex
- Thread starter Felix Profound
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Foreign Exchange Markets Technical Outlook
Focus: G8 Currencies
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Euro / Dollar Noisy Range Continues
Wednesday, 11 February 2009 04:19:17 GMT
Written by Jamie Saettele, Senior Currency Strategist
Euro / US Dollar
The EURUSD is in a correction that is working higher from 1.2704. Corrections are choppy and prone to false breaks, especially the early stages. Still, a rally to Fibonacci resistance, which does not begin until 1.3440, is expected over the course of the next several weeks. 1.2704 needs to remain intact to keep this forecast on track. Short term support is at 1.2883.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The USDJPY is at the center of its 87.10-94.67 range. Former resistance just below 91 now serves as potential support. It is likely that either a triangle or a flat is unfolding from the December low at 87.09. I say this because both the advance from 87.09 and decline from 94.67 are in 3 waves. The subwaves of triangles and flats are 3 wave affairs.
British Pound / US Dollar
The rally from 1.35 in the GBPUSD is in 3 waves to this point and the 2 bull legs are nearly equal. The rally could be just a 3 wave corrective advance in the ongoing bear. The structure of the decline from 1.4990 should shed more light on the GBPUSD’s future path. Fibonacci support is in the 1.44-1.4620 zone.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
The drop from 1.2303 is an impulse (5 waves), but the drop may be the end of a decline rather than the beginning (a C wave). The decline would have completed an expanded flat at 1.0367. This level serves as the secondary low in a longer term bull cycle from .9634. Still, weakness is expected near term to at least 1.1312. The 200 day SMA is just above 1.10. Over the next several days, the USDCHF may complete an ending diagonal from 1.1312 that will give way to weakness over the next several weeks.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
A triangle has been underway since October and serves as a 4th wave correction. The break from this triangle should be violent. Near term, I favor a drop below 1.2020 in order to complete wave e (triangles are labeled a-b-c-d-e). Aggressive traders may wish to trade the short side against the 1.2387 but the highest probability strategy is to wait for wave e to end before attempting a long position (maybe later this week or early next week) against 1.1459 for a move upwards of 1.40.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The AUDUSD is most likely working higher in order to complete a flat above .7275. The process should take a few weeks to play out; probably the rest of the month. Short term support begins at .6616 and extends to .6472.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
There is a clear ‘5’ down from the 2008 high and a corrective advance from the 2008 low to .6090. The decline from there is probably the first leg of the next bearish cycle. The count is similar to the EURUSD count in that the first wave of the next bear leg may be complete and a recovery is expected prior to resumption of the downtrend. The advance underway from .4958 may be wave a of an a-b-c advance that will end in the .5550-.5630 zone. Short term support begins at .5239.
For all charts, click here
Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Contact at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
Focus: G8 Currencies
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Euro / Dollar Noisy Range Continues
Wednesday, 11 February 2009 04:19:17 GMT
Written by Jamie Saettele, Senior Currency Strategist
Euro / US Dollar
The EURUSD is in a correction that is working higher from 1.2704. Corrections are choppy and prone to false breaks, especially the early stages. Still, a rally to Fibonacci resistance, which does not begin until 1.3440, is expected over the course of the next several weeks. 1.2704 needs to remain intact to keep this forecast on track. Short term support is at 1.2883.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
The USDJPY is at the center of its 87.10-94.67 range. Former resistance just below 91 now serves as potential support. It is likely that either a triangle or a flat is unfolding from the December low at 87.09. I say this because both the advance from 87.09 and decline from 94.67 are in 3 waves. The subwaves of triangles and flats are 3 wave affairs.
British Pound / US Dollar
The rally from 1.35 in the GBPUSD is in 3 waves to this point and the 2 bull legs are nearly equal. The rally could be just a 3 wave corrective advance in the ongoing bear. The structure of the decline from 1.4990 should shed more light on the GBPUSD’s future path. Fibonacci support is in the 1.44-1.4620 zone.
US Dollar / Swiss Franc
The drop from 1.2303 is an impulse (5 waves), but the drop may be the end of a decline rather than the beginning (a C wave). The decline would have completed an expanded flat at 1.0367. This level serves as the secondary low in a longer term bull cycle from .9634. Still, weakness is expected near term to at least 1.1312. The 200 day SMA is just above 1.10. Over the next several days, the USDCHF may complete an ending diagonal from 1.1312 that will give way to weakness over the next several weeks.
US Dollar / Canadian Dollar
A triangle has been underway since October and serves as a 4th wave correction. The break from this triangle should be violent. Near term, I favor a drop below 1.2020 in order to complete wave e (triangles are labeled a-b-c-d-e). Aggressive traders may wish to trade the short side against the 1.2387 but the highest probability strategy is to wait for wave e to end before attempting a long position (maybe later this week or early next week) against 1.1459 for a move upwards of 1.40.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
The AUDUSD is most likely working higher in order to complete a flat above .7275. The process should take a few weeks to play out; probably the rest of the month. Short term support begins at .6616 and extends to .6472.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
There is a clear ‘5’ down from the 2008 high and a corrective advance from the 2008 low to .6090. The decline from there is probably the first leg of the next bearish cycle. The count is similar to the EURUSD count in that the first wave of the next bear leg may be complete and a recovery is expected prior to resumption of the downtrend. The advance underway from .4958 may be wave a of an a-b-c advance that will end in the .5550-.5630 zone. Short term support begins at .5239.
For all charts, click here
Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Contact at jsaettele@dailyfx.com
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Forex is somethng to trade but it is different from other instruments in this ways:
- Leverage: the leverage that forex brokers provide for trading is significantly bigger than leverage for other instruments. This is what makes forex so dangerous specially for beginners who dream about being milioner out of a couple of bucks. we as professionals do not use that much leverage that brokers provide
- 24 hour market: this is an advantage but there are some considerations that should take into account. All of us as traders got strategies to beat this market but we should remember that a complete strategy got trding hours. For example if we trade based on BREAK OUT we should remember that breakout of GBPUSD in Australia day time is not valid and can not be traded. Any way there are strategies which has been designed to be traded in sleep time of currency pairs like SEDONA
- Volume : As explained before in forex market we as traders have not access to the total volume of the market in every moment or even nobody has. So this is a great disadvantage of forex market in comparision to stock market
- Fundametal: even it seems a little bit difficult to know everything about currencies fundamental analysis, in my opinion, it is much sipler that fundamental of other markets. You should always monitor interest rates and inflation what market is focused on in trading time. For long term traders (better to say investors) there are simple atrategies to make money out of Forex.
- Volatility: It should be a great concern of a forex trader. Sometimes market is very harsh and your stop loss hit like a piece of cake. Then as a trader you should have different criteris for different volatility conditions in the market. I wish to say too much in this about in the future.
- Pairs and not Prices: As mentioned before we trade ratios and not prices in the forex market. This cause a couple of profitable trading strategies come in HEDGING category.
There are other important differencies as well. I'll mention later
- Leverage: the leverage that forex brokers provide for trading is significantly bigger than leverage for other instruments. This is what makes forex so dangerous specially for beginners who dream about being milioner out of a couple of bucks. we as professionals do not use that much leverage that brokers provide
- 24 hour market: this is an advantage but there are some considerations that should take into account. All of us as traders got strategies to beat this market but we should remember that a complete strategy got trding hours. For example if we trade based on BREAK OUT we should remember that breakout of GBPUSD in Australia day time is not valid and can not be traded. Any way there are strategies which has been designed to be traded in sleep time of currency pairs like SEDONA
- Volume : As explained before in forex market we as traders have not access to the total volume of the market in every moment or even nobody has. So this is a great disadvantage of forex market in comparision to stock market
- Fundametal: even it seems a little bit difficult to know everything about currencies fundamental analysis, in my opinion, it is much sipler that fundamental of other markets. You should always monitor interest rates and inflation what market is focused on in trading time. For long term traders (better to say investors) there are simple atrategies to make money out of Forex.
- Volatility: It should be a great concern of a forex trader. Sometimes market is very harsh and your stop loss hit like a piece of cake. Then as a trader you should have different criteris for different volatility conditions in the market. I wish to say too much in this about in the future.
- Pairs and not Prices: As mentioned before we trade ratios and not prices in the forex market. This cause a couple of profitable trading strategies come in HEDGING category.
There are other important differencies as well. I'll mention later
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I still haven't worked out how to make money in FX. Been testing for the past few weeks during London and London/US on the four majors. Trading mini lots with real money using a moving average crossover system, similar to the one described on Babypips.com. Not seeing any consistency in the results. Account down 30% since begining of month.
Ahh those wonderful moving averages...wouldn't it be nice if we could all see the right hand side of a chart.
Ahh those wonderful moving averages...wouldn't it be nice if we could all see the right hand side of a chart.
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1- How much was your equity size and how much was your trading size?
2- How long did you back tested your trading systems? was it profitable out of long term back tests?
3- Is your trading systems mechanical or discretional?
4- Did you traded signals just based on your trading system or did you let your emotion to be involved?
5- Was you trading a demo account or real?
There are too much to find out why you have lost too much (30$ loss in a month is a disaster)
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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What is your prefered charting time frame?
Relying on one indicator is something that may be mastered but I feel there are many other ways that appear, if willing to accept more than one method.
I reckon after a certain amount of experience (or a natural) one could look at any chart and conclude a high probability price movement.
That`s what this apprenticeship is all about.
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lol
Felix Profound could you answer this question? it seems that you must of accidentally overlooked it...
Stormin_Norman
Currency Trader
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i want that answered too. for me its the crux of why i trade currency.
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This is the first post in this topic. The topic start with a question, not answered yet. Why Forex? Why we should trade currencies? All explained up to know brings no reason to persuade us to trade it?
Just for a moment forget about FELIX PROFOUND (Which is scam or not, or is he going steal our money or not) and guess beside everything everybody said up to know, why people trade Forex? There must be a reason.
Stormin_Norman
Currency Trader
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is english your second language?
how is it dangerous if they are only risking a coupla bucks? Surely that's better than risking significant amounts of your own capital.
I think you just proved his point.
Stormin_Norman
Currency Trader
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leverage isnt bad.
over leverage however is.
over leverage however is.
Trembling Hand
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Is this thread the biggest waste of bits & bytes yet?
Felix can you PLEASE post something of value!! Please!
Something profound?
Felix can you PLEASE post something of value!! Please!
Something profound?
No arguments there from me, used correctly it is a very useful tool.
The problem is alot of people don't understand the consequences if things go wrong with excessive leverage (or even leverage in general) - you can lose a great deal more than your starting capital - alot of people in this current market have learnt very quickly leverage can be a double edged sword, just ask Storm clients.
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C'mon guys. No doubt he has a lot of forums to get around. He can't spend all his time here answering your questions!
Stormin_Norman
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with forex brokers your loss is limited at your deposit.
in that sense its not like a leveraged loan against your house for shares which can become net negative.
if your currency account hits margin, youll be sold out and left with a fraction of your deposit.
not ideal, but not a 'storm' situation either.
again, leverage and the use of it comes under good money management. those that dont practice good money management may as well be @ the casino.
in that sense its not like a leveraged loan against your house for shares which can become net negative.
if your currency account hits margin, youll be sold out and left with a fraction of your deposit.
not ideal, but not a 'storm' situation either.
again, leverage and the use of it comes under good money management. those that dont practice good money management may as well be @ the casino.
not if you choose a dealer which prohibits negative balances.
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