How many of you sold today?

[the barry]

5300 tomorrow 4500 the next day???

Regardless of wether it gets to 5300 or 4500, as long as you don't have to sell, it presents an opportunity to pick up quality stocks at great prices. The problem is if that dreaded margin call comes, which causes the market to over-react as more and more positions are closed out.

 

[robandcoll]

Have held everything so far, and have continued to buy. Its like a boxing day sale at the moment. Looking forward to adding everything up in about 3 months time. $$$

 

[the barry]

Have held everything so far, and have continued to buy. Its like a boxing day sale at the moment. Looking forward to adding everything up in about 3 months time. $$$

Could not agree more. Little own doing the math in 6 months time.

 

[bean]

originally posted by Cuttlefish
I selectively bailed out of stocks last wed (sold most of my spec base metals and some gold and unloaded some more base metals thurs/fri). I don't have a problem with going flat in a situation where there's uncertainty and downside risk. Its rare that you won't be able to pick back up again at close to what you sold for so its just a bit of slippage if you want to go long again (and quite often of course you can pick up cheaper which is the case this time around). Going flat takes the emotion away so its easier to make objective decisions.

And as far as I'm concerned if you're gonna bail, bail early. Like ripping off a bandaid - take the quick pain and move on.

Agree - and did the same
And we may well be sleeping easier over the next few nights

 

[Out Too Soon]

I'm holding at a lot higher buy price than you! I'm a 12 month minimum bloke and don't believe in stop losses, however I wished I had after looking at my Portfolio this arvo, especially PDN - what a shocker - requires nerves of steel - I was bragging only last Saturday night about how well they had done, and when asked why i hadn't cashed out, explained due to my investment mindset (CGT) why had not taken the 32% paper profit I had made in only 6 weeks, now it's more Red than a Russian square in May, isn't that you're special month Out Too Soon?

Good Luck to all those that are going to sit the storm out, I hope we are doing the right thing.

Cheers

Hang in there bushy, I like to hold between a week & a few months but if I hold a stock that's fundamentally sound but out of favour (100% of portfolio at present ) then I don't mind holding as long as it takes. I've been sucked in by the stop loss line previously & decided it's for impatient traders & those not brave enough to hold through dips & corrections.
The fun thing about stops is it keeps a constant turn over of funds so you can always have cash ready for the next bargain, but at what cost. not clever. :
Funny thing is I show a profit for this month & still have cash ready (not enough ) to grab some bargains when we hit bottom.

 

[Bush Trader]

Thanks all for the advice.

Last night I spoke to the old man (he's been at this game quite a long time) and he advised me to wait for the short-term rebound and quit anything on my margin loan that will not trigger too big a Tax liability, he thinks the job will be very erratic till mid July. If 5400 is broken he believes that things will potentially get very nasty.

As we all know there are many out there using leveraged products, he believes that stop losses/margin calls have self-perpetuated the significant falls we have seen to date in stocks such as in PDN, or anything else that people were star chasing prior to the correction (probably all U Stocks). He thinks the worst of the "clean out" is now over and these stocks will begin to stabilise. There may be further consolidation, if bargain hunters that are leveraged and have jumped in too early come under pressure from the same scenario.

He also believes Tax loss selling will be the theme for June, as many will be cleaning up their Portfolios to counteract tax liabilities that have triggered from exiting long positions early. Obviously the dogs of the year will be the worst performers during this sell off.

On a positive note he believes that we will see larger than usual rallies in high yielding stocks pre their record date as fund managers, who are under even greater pressure with a falling market scramble to show returns, this is especially true with the amount of baby-boomer super entering the market pre-June.

I would welcome any feedback.

Cheers

 

[bean]

I follow US markets and the only thing holding them up is the DOW above 12000 -- Every other index is broken... there advance/decline there volume up/down . the US market has to rally....otherwise these readings if they go any lower indicate 5% plus fall. Some of my reading will be showing the same as sept 17th 2001 --when the US markets re-opened . after sept 11

My gold indexs I follow have at least a few more days to fall.
The only positive thing I can see for US markets is that they may start becoming oversold next day or two

 

[nioka]

Thanks all for the advice.

Last night I spoke to the old man (he's been at this game quite a long time) and he advised me to wait for the short-term rebound and quit anything on my margin loan that will not trigger too big a Tax liability, he thinks the job will be very erratic till mid July. If 5400 is broken he believes that things will potentially get very nasty.

As we all know there are many out there using leveraged products, he believes that stop losses/margin calls have self-perpetuated the significant falls we have seen to date in stocks such as in PDN, or anything else that people were star chasing prior to the correction (probably all U Stocks). He thinks the worst of the "clean out" is now over and these stocks will begin to stabilise. There may be further consolidation, if bargain hunters that are leveraged and have jumped in too early come under pressure from the same scenario.

He also believes Tax loss selling will be the theme for June, as many will be cleaning up their Portfolios to counteract tax liabilities that have triggered from exiting long positions early. Obviously the dogs of the year will be the worst performers during this sell off.

On a positive note he believes that we will see larger than usual rallies in high yielding stocks pre their record date as fund managers, who are under even greater pressure with a falling market scramble to show returns, this is especially true with the amount of baby-boomer super entering the market pre-June.

I would welcome any feedback.

Cheers

That is exactly the story I gave my daughter last night. It is good to have someone thinking along the same lines.

 

[Knobby22]

That is exactly the story I gave my daughter last night. It is good to have someone thinking along the same lines.

It sounds like wise advice bush trader and noika. We should be looking for out of favour stocks near June.

The story I told my daughter last night was aa bit different however:
It was Enid Blyton's "The Faraway Tree"

 

[nioka]

It sounds like wise advice bush trader and noika. We should be looking for out of favour stocks near June.

The story I told my daughter last night was aa bit different however:
It was Enid Blyton's "The Faraway Tree"

My grand daughter is too old for Enid Blyton, Maybe for my great granddaughter.
June could be interesting as there will be a lot of super money trying to find a safe home. Think more May.

 

[Out Too Soon]

I just read "The Raven" to my wife & kids, sons doing poetry homework for english.
Sold GGP (I know, I'll regret it), bought GTP today. Gotta do something while most of the portfolios tied up in red ribbon.

PS: My kids know of "The Raven" from The Simpsons, one of their Halloween specials. Who said they couldn't learn anything from "The Simpsons".

 

[Julia]

A quote from Noel Whittaker in today's paper.

"Panicking and cashing out when the market is having one of its normal downturns could cause a needless loss of money.

Remember, $200,000 invested in shares in August 1987, was worth $121,260 two months later. Today the same portfolio would be worth $1.21 million if all dividends were re-invested. Those who bailed out when the crash hit were the big losers."

Julia

 

[CanOz]

A quote from Noel Whittaker in today's paper.

"Panicking and cashing out when the market is having one of its normal downturns could cause a needless loss of money.

Remember, $200,000 invested in shares in August 1987, was worth $121,260 two months later. Today the same portfolio would be worth $1.21 million if all dividends were re-invested. Those who bailed out when the crash hit were the big losers."

Julia

Hmmmm, that was 20 years ago. I wonder of the people here who call themselves investors, what percentage will have the discipline to hold for 20 years?

I suppose everybody's time frame is different. Everybody should have had a plan and knew what they were going to do when it occured. Some sold before, some held and then sold, some sold on the bounce, and some will continue to hold.

Some may never return again.

Cheers,

 

[Kauri]

A quote from Noel Whittaker in today's paper.
"Panicking and cashing out when the market is having one of its normal downturns could cause a needless loss of money.

Remember, $200,000 invested in shares in August 1987, was worth $121,260 two months later. Today the same portfolio would be worth $1.21 million if all dividends were re-invested. Those who bailed out when the crash hit were the big losers."

Wouldn't that be only if you had invested in the Index (does that pay Divi's?) ,had you invested in a basket of shares you would hope that Ion, HIH, Pasminco, Sons of Gwalia, Stanilite, or Henry Walker Elton weren't in your basket.
However had you invested in Sept 87 it would have been a long wait until Nov97!!!

 

[mit]

A quote from Noel Whittaker in today's paper.

"Panicking and cashing out when the market is having one of its normal downturns could cause a needless loss of money.

Remember, $200,000 invested in shares in August 1987, was worth $121,260 two months later. Today the same portfolio would be worth $1.21 million if all dividends were re-invested. Those who bailed out when the crash hit were the big losers."

Julia

I don't quite agree with this because the third option isn't shown. Before the big drop on black Tuesday in 1987 the market had already retreated 10%. People using stoplosses would probably be out of the market by then. So you would have most of your $200k available to buy your bargains and would be far ahead of the buy and hold people.

MIT

 

[Out Too Soon]

I don't quite agree with this because the third option isn't shown. Before the big drop on black Tuesday in 1987 the market had already retreated 10%. People using stoplosses would probably be out of the market by then. So you would have most of your $200k available to buy your bargains and would be far ahead of the buy and hold people.

MIT

Well somebody sold lower down, obviously. Anyway keep using your stop losses if you beleive in them, somebodies gotta sell @ a loss for others to buy @ a bargain.

 

[mit]

Well somebody sold lower down, obviously. Anyway keep using your stop losses if you beleive in them, somebodies gotta sell @ a loss for others to buy @ a bargain.

I'd rather be back in profit after 6 months rather than wait 6 years.

 

[Julia]

I was interested to read this comment from Noel Whittaker, because I would suspect he would by no means have been fully invested in the share market at that stage. He constantly preaches diversification, and I'd bet he had considerable funds in real estate.

I was living in NZ at that time, and had fortunately pulled my shares out about a week before the crash. With inflation running very high, and rents running similarly high, I bought investment property which did very well for the next several years.

What happened in Australia with property during that period when shares were so slow to recover? Was there a property boom?

Julia

 

[mit]

I was interested to read this comment from Noel Whittaker, because I would suspect he would by no means have been fully invested in the share market at that stage. He constantly preaches diversification, and I'd bet he had considerable funds in real estate.

I was living in NZ at that time, and had fortunately pulled my shares out about a week before the crash. With inflation running very high, and rents running similarly high, I bought investment property which did very well for the next several years.

What happened in Australia with property during that period when shares were so slow to recover? Was there a property boom?

Julia

I wasn't involved in investing at that time but I know that the higher end of the property market crashed quite quickly as people had to pull money out of property to pay for their margin loans etc. A lot of liquidity disappeared very quickly so there wasn't a lot of money to buy bargains. I think the property market may have recovered quickly after the initial downturn.

MIT